Game Recap: STL 1, NYI 3, November 23, 2024

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Game Recap

STL1

FinalSat, Nov 23, 2024Every game that night

NYI3

NYI beat STL 3-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.23 expected goals to 1.80. B. Nelson led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). J. Neighbours had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. I. Sorokin stopped 24 of 25.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
STL	0	0	1	1
NYI	1	1	1	3

1st 18:51NYIK. Palmieri0.10 xG
2nd 15:55NYIB. NelsonPP0.20 xG
3rd 0:45STLJ. NeighboursPP0.23 xG
3rd 19:23NYIK. PalmieriEN0.93 xG

Team Stats

STLNYI

25Shots on goal31

1.80Expected goals3.23

57Shot attempts52

235v5 shots on goal26

1/1Power play1/2

24Hits29

6Blocked shots20

4Penalty minutes2

12Giveaways14

4Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

STL 1.80 xGNYI 3.23 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

STL25 on goal, 1 scored

NYI31 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
P. Buchnevich	LW	0	1	1	1	0	1	-1	0	20:03	0:10
J. Neighbours	LW	1	0	1	5	6	0	-2	0	19:53	0:10
R. Thomas	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	-1	2	19:22	0:10
J. Kyrou	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	16:41	0:10
B. Schenn	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-2	0	15:51	0:00
D. Holloway	LW	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	0	15:16	0:00
R. Faksa	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	15:01	0:00
B. Saad	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	14:09	0:00
M. Joseph	RW	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	13:59	0:00
O. Sundqvist	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	10:45	0:00
N. Walker	LW	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	0	9:44	0:00
A. Toropchenko	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9:28	0:00
R. Suter	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	2	26:09	0:00
C. Parayko	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	0	25:34	0:00
J. Faulk	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	20:47	0:10
S. Perunovich	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	20:16	0:00
M. Kessel	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	13:10	0:00
P. Joseph	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	12:44	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Binnington	30	28	2	.933	58:43	Loss
J. Hofer	0	0	0	–	0:00

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Nelson	C	1	2	3	4	0	0	+2	0	18:29	1:22
K. Palmieri	C	2	0	2	4	0	0	+2	0	17:57	1:22
M. Tsyplakov	RW	0	1	1	3	2	0	+2	0	17:32	1:22
S. Holmstrom	RW	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	14:40	1:17
J. Pageau	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	19:42	1:03
B. Horvat	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	19:02	1:03
A. Lee	LW	0	0	0	6	3	1	0	0	18:50	1:03
P. Engvall	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	15:09	0:00
C. Cizikas	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	13:29	0:00
O. Wahlstrom	RW	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	10:00	1:03
K. MacLean	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8:59	0:00
M. Martin	LW	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	8:10	0:00
N. Dobson	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	+2	0	23:43	1:03
A. Romanov	D	0	0	0	2	5	2	+1	0	22:31	0:00
R. Pulock	D	0	0	0	0	4	1	+1	0	21:14	0:05
S. Mayfield	D	0	0	0	0	1	10	0	0	18:13	0:00
I. George	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	2	17:31	0:05
D. Cholowski	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	14:39	1:17

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Sorokin	25	24	1	.960	60:00	Win
S. Varlamov	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamBrayden Schenn NYI Faces STL, his team until Mar 20261 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	STL 2.8, NYI 3.1	STL 1, NYI 3
Total goals	5.9	4
Shots on goal	STL 28.2, NYI 31.1	STL 25, NYI 31
Win chance	NYI 55%	NYI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NYI B. Horvat	3.0	3	0.82	0	34%	0
STL J. Kyrou	2.9	0	0.81	0	30%	0
NYI B. Nelson	2.8	4	0.85	3	36%	1
NYI K. Palmieri	2.8	4	0.77	2	30%	2
NYI A. Lee	2.8	6	0.63	0	28%	0
NYI N. Dobson	2.4	2	0.70	0	12%	0
STL J. Faulk	2.2	1	0.48	0	9%	0
STL P. Buchnevich	2.2	1	0.78	1	27%	0
STL B. Schenn	2.1	1	0.60	0	21%	0
STL C. Parayko	2.0	2	0.39	0	9%	0
STL R. Thomas	2.0	1	0.93	1	24%	0
STL J. Neighbours	1.8	5	0.45	1	24%	1
NYI J. Pageau	1.8	0	0.57	0	21%	0
NYI P. Engvall	1.7	0	0.41	0	17%	0
STL B. Saad	1.7	1	0.49	0	23%	0
STL D. Holloway	1.6	4	0.32	0	15%	0
NYI R. Pulock	1.6	0	0.39	0	7%	0
NYI M. Tsyplakov	1.4	3	0.50	1	16%	0
NYI A. Romanov	1.4	2	0.28	0	6%	0
STL A. Toropchenko	1.3	0	0.25	0	13%	0
NYI O. Wahlstrom	1.3	1	0.24	0	11%	0
STL R. Suter	1.2	2	0.29	0	5%	0
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.2	0	0.43	1	20%	0
NYI C. Cizikas	1.2	1	0.29	0	12%	0
STL M. Joseph	1.1	1	0.28	0	10%	0
NYI S. Mayfield	1.1	0	0.27	0	5%	0
STL N. Walker	1.1	2	0.29	0	13%	0
STL R. Faksa	1.1	2	0.25	0	10%	0
STL P. Joseph	1.0	0	0.21	0	4%	0
NYI I. George	0.9	3	0.16	0	5%	0
NYI D. Cholowski	0.8	2	0.25	0	5%	0
STL O. Sundqvist	0.8	0	0.27	0	11%	0
STL S. Perunovich	0.7	0	0.33	0	3%	0
NYI M. Martin	0.7	0	0.13	0	6%	0
NYI K. MacLean	0.7	0	0.20	0	9%	0
STL M. Kessel	0.6	2	0.15	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 16 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.