Game Recap: STL 2, NYI 1, November 22, 2025

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Game Recap

STL2

FinalSat, Nov 22, 2025Every game that night

NYI1

STL beat NYI 2-1 despite fewer good chances: 2.58 expected goals to 3.41. NYI outshot STL 30 to 22. A. Pelech had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. J. Binnington stopped 29 of 30.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
STL	1	1	0	2
NYI	0	0	1	1

1st 0:42STLB. Schenn0.10 xG
2nd 17:51STLP. Suter0.21 xG
3rd 16:40NYIA. Lee0.34 xG

Team Stats

STLNYI

22Shots on goal30

2.58Expected goals3.41

52Shot attempts61

205v5 shots on goal21

0/1Power play0/3

22Hits20

14Blocked shots12

6Penalty minutes2

14Giveaways15

3Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

STL 2.58 xGNYI 3.41 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

STL22 on goal, 2 scored

NYI30 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
P. Buchnevich	LW	0	1	1	0	0	2	0	0	18:52	0:40
P. Suter	C	1	0	1	4	0	0	+1	0	16:00	0:00
B. Schenn	C	1	0	1	2	2	0	0	0	15:34	0:48
D. Dvorsky	RW	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	14:18	0:41
D. Holloway	LW	0	1	1	2	6	0	+1	0	14:03	0:49
J. Kyrou	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	12:42	0:46
R. Thomas	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	19:20	0:39
J. Neighbours	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	15:35	0:47
A. Toropchenko	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	13:42	0:00
N. Walker	LW	0	0	0	2	3	3	0	0	13:20	0:00
J. Snuggerud	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	12:49	0:37
N. Bjugstad	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	10:46	0:00
P. Broberg	D	0	0	0	1	3	2	+1	0	27:58	0:00
C. Parayko	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	24:23	0:00
J. Faulk	D	0	0	0	3	0	2	0	6	20:22	0:50
C. Fowler	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	0	19:45	0:38
T. Tucker	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	13:15	0:00
M. Kessel	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:11	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Binnington	30	29	1	.967	59:59	Win
J. Hofer	0	0	0	–	0:00

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Barzal	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	2	21:30	3:33
K. Palmieri	C	0	1	1	3	0	1	0	0	18:37	2:47
A. Lee	LW	1	0	1	4	2	1	+1	0	17:35	2:01
B. Horvat	C	0	0	0	4	0	0	-1	0	20:25	3:33
J. Drouin	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	19:50	3:28
J. Pageau	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	15:58	0:27
E. Heineman	LW	0	0	0	1	5	0	-2	0	14:32	0:00
S. Holmstrom	RW	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	14:26	0:00
A. Duclair	LW	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	12:46	0:00
C. Ritchie	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	10:26	0:00
M. Shabanov	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	10:22	0:00
C. Cizikas	C	0	0	0	0	6	0	0	0	8:48	0:00
M. Schaefer	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	+1	0	27:29	3:33
A. Pelech	D	0	0	0	4	0	1	-1	0	20:15	0:00
T. DeAngelo	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	19:27	0:19
R. Pulock	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	18:18	0:00
S. Mayfield	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	16:35	0:00
A. Boqvist	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	13:52	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Sorokin	22	20	2	.909	56:49	Loss
D. Rittich	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

STL

Line 1B. Schenn13:58P. Buchnevich15:13D. Dvorsky13:37

Line 2R. Thomas15:58J. Neighbours13:45J. Snuggerud12:11

Line 3P. Suter13:09D. Holloway13:14J. Kyrou11:55

Line 4N. Walker13:20A. Toropchenko12:08N. Bjugstad10:46

Pair 1P. Broberg24:01C. Parayko20:44

Pair 2J. Faulk18:46C. Fowler17:45

Pair 3M. Kessel12:31T. Tucker12:54

NYI

Line 1A. Lee14:19J. Pageau14:32A. Duclair12:46

Line 2M. Barzal16:42J. Drouin14:47S. Holmstrom13:35

Line 3K. Palmieri14:24E. Heineman14:32B. Horvat14:30

Line 4C. Cizikas8:48C. Ritchie10:12M. Shabanov10:22

Pair 1M. Schaefer21:55R. Pulock17:15

Pair 2A. Pelech19:00T. DeAngelo18:35

Pair 3S. Mayfield15:49A. Boqvist13:52

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamBrayden Schenn NYI Faces STL, his team until Mar 20261 G, 2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	STL 2.9, NYI 3.1	STL 2, NYI 1
Total goals	6.0	3
Shots on goal	STL 25.8, NYI 28.7	STL 22, NYI 30
Win chance	NYI 52%	STL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NYI B. Horvat	2.8	4	0.81	0	33%	0
NYI M. Barzal	2.7	2	0.97	1	26%	0
STL J. Kyrou	2.6	2	0.70	1	30%	0
NYI M. Schaefer	2.5	1	0.63	0	16%	0
NYI K. Palmieri	2.4	3	0.70	1	28%	0
NYI A. Lee	2.3	4	0.54	1	24%	1
STL D. Holloway	2.1	2	0.61	1	23%	0
STL J. Snuggerud	1.9	0	0.53	0	19%	0
STL P. Buchnevich	1.8	0	0.70	1	24%	0
STL J. Faulk	1.7	3	0.46	0	8%	0
STL N. Bjugstad	1.7	1	0.31	0	15%	0
STL C. Parayko	1.6	0	0.41	0	10%	0
STL R. Thomas	1.6	2	0.89	0	21%	0
NYI T. DeAngelo	1.6	3	0.43	0	9%	0
STL B. Schenn	1.6	2	0.55	1	20%	1
NYI E. Heineman	1.6	1	0.50	0	23%	0
STL P. Suter	1.6	4	0.47	1	20%	1
STL P. Broberg	1.5	1	0.39	0	9%	0
NYI J. Drouin	1.4	2	0.77	0	19%	0
STL C. Fowler	1.3	1	0.54	0	8%	0
NYI A. Pelech	1.3	4	0.27	0	3%	0
STL J. Neighbours	1.3	0	0.52	0	23%	0
STL D. Dvorsky	1.3	1	0.28	1	16%	0
NYI M. Shabanov	1.3	2	0.47	0	16%	0
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.2	0	0.51	0	22%	0
NYI R. Pulock	1.2	0	0.33	0	6%	0
NYI J. Pageau	1.2	1	0.47	0	16%	0
STL N. Walker	1.1	2	0.28	0	13%	0
STL A. Toropchenko	1.1	0	0.24	0	11%	0
NYI A. Duclair	1.1	0	0.32	0	17%	0
NYI C. Ritchie	1.0	3	0.27	0	13%	0
NYI A. Boqvist	0.9	0	0.26	0	6%	0
NYI S. Mayfield	0.9	0	0.19	0	4%	0
NYI C. Cizikas	0.8	0	0.19	0	8%	0
STL T. Tucker	0.7	1	0.14	0	4%	0
STL M. Kessel	0.5	0	0.11	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.