Game Recap: STL 5, NYR 2, November 25, 2024

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Game Recap

STL5

FinalMon, Nov 25, 2024Every game that night

NYR2

STL beat NYR 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 6.03 expected goals to 2.83. STL outshot NYR 44 to 29. Z. Bolduc led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). Z. Bolduc had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. J. Hofer stopped 27 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
STL	1	1	3	5
NYR	1	1	0	2

1st 8:47NYRW. Cuylle0.13 xG
1st 11:45STLJ. Kyrou0.17 xG
2nd 4:30STLZ. Bolduc0.65 xG
2nd 7:20NYRW. Cuylle0.40 xG
3rd 1:12STLB. Schenn0.12 xG
3rd 8:25STLZ. Bolduc0.28 xG
3rd 17:15STLP. BuchnevichEN0.92 xG

Team Stats

STLNYR

44Shots on goal29

6.03Expected goals2.83

71Shot attempts60

325v5 shots on goal23

0/3Power play0/3

24Hits23

17Blocked shots14

8Penalty minutes8

18Giveaways19

4Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

STL 6.03 xGNYR 2.83 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

STL43 on goal, 5 scored

NYR28 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Holloway	LW	0	2	2	3	1	0	+2	0	16:02	2:21
Z. Bolduc	RW	2	0	2	7	0	1	+2	4	15:49	1:55
B. Schenn	C	1	1	2	1	7	0	0	0	15:17	1:49
P. Buchnevich	LW	1	0	1	4	4	0	+1	0	16:51	3:51
J. Kyrou	RW	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	14:45	3:48
R. Faksa	C	0	1	1	1	1	2	+1	0	14:18	0:00
O. Sundqvist	C	0	1	1	3	1	1	+2	2	11:12	0:00
R. Thomas	C	0	0	0	4	1	0	+1	0	19:12	4:12
J. Neighbours	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	2	14:25	3:39
B. Saad	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	13:52	2:11
N. Walker	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	12:52	0:00
A. Toropchenko	RW	0	0	0	1	3	3	0	0	12:50	0:00
C. Parayko	D	0	1	1	2	1	3	+3	0	26:21	0:04
R. Suter	D	0	1	1	1	1	1	+3	0	24:21	0:10
S. Perunovich	D	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	15:24	2:26
J. Faulk	D	0	0	0	4	0	2	+1	0	21:51	3:34
P. Joseph	D	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	0	15:06	0:00
M. Kessel	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	11:32	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Hofer	29	27	2	.931	60:00	Win
J. Binnington	0	0	0	–	0:00

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
W. Cuylle	LW	2	0	2	3	6	0	-1	2	14:51	1:41
M. Zibanejad	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	-3	0	16:55	4:06
K. Kakko	RW	0	1	1	5	1	0	+1	0	15:14	1:52
B. Berard	LW	0	1	1	2	1	0	-1	0	11:13	1:55
V. Trocheck	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	-2	0	21:59	4:00
A. Panarin	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	21:08	4:24
A. Lafrenière	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-3	0	19:44	4:17
R. Smith	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	17:32	1:30
A. Edstrom	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	10:59	0:00
S. Carrick	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	2	10:19	0:02
J. Vesey	LW	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	9:27	0:02
M. Rempe	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	9:26	0:02
Z. Jones	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	-1	0	18:14	1:50
A. Fox	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	22:09	4:08
K. Miller	D	0	0	0	3	2	4	+1	0	21:23	0:09
J. Trouba	D	0	0	0	1	2	5	-2	0	17:59	0:00
R. Lindgren	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	-1	0	17:46	0:00
B. Schneider	D	0	0	0	2	4	0	-1	0	16:10	0:02

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Shesterkin	43	39	4	.907	59:32	Loss
J. Quick	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	STL 2.8, NYR 3.4	STL 5, NYR 2
Total goals	6.1	7
Shots on goal	STL 29.0, NYR 31.5	STL 44, NYR 29
Win chance	NYR 60%	STL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NYR A. Panarin	3.1	2	1.25	0	35%	0
STL J. Kyrou	2.8	3	0.73	1	28%	1
NYR V. Trocheck	2.5	2	0.86	0	27%	0
NYR A. Lafrenière	2.5	2	0.74	0	28%	0
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.4	2	0.90	1	28%	0
STL P. Buchnevich	2.2	4	0.73	1	26%	1
STL B. Schenn	2.1	1	0.54	2	20%	1
STL J. Neighbours	2.0	3	0.44	0	24%	0
STL J. Faulk	1.9	4	0.42	0	7%	0
STL R. Thomas	1.9	4	0.86	0	22%	0
NYR J. Trouba	1.8	1	0.33	0	7%	0
NYR W. Cuylle	1.8	3	0.46	2	21%	2
NYR R. Smith	1.8	2	0.59	0	20%	0
STL C. Parayko	1.8	2	0.35	1	8%	0
STL D. Holloway	1.7	3	0.29	2	15%	0
STL B. Saad	1.7	1	0.44	0	21%	0
NYR A. Fox	1.6	2	0.83	0	12%	0
NYR K. Kakko	1.4	5	0.39	1	17%	0
STL A. Toropchenko	1.3	1	0.22	0	12%	0
NYR K. Miller	1.2	3	0.35	0	8%	0
STL R. Suter	1.2	1	0.26	1	4%	0
NYR Z. Jones	1.1	0	0.27	1	6%	0
STL R. Faksa	1.1	1	0.23	1	10%	0
STL Z. Bolduc	1.1	7	0.28	2	10%	2
NYR B. Schneider	1.1	2	0.23	0	5%	0
STL N. Walker	1.1	1	0.26	0	12%	0
NYR J. Vesey	1.1	0	0.25	0	11%	0
NYR S. Carrick	1.0	1	0.21	0	11%	0
NYR R. Lindgren	1.0	0	0.24	0	5%	0
STL P. Joseph	0.9	4	0.18	0	3%	0
NYR A. Edstrom	0.8	0	0.18	0	11%	0
STL O. Sundqvist	0.8	3	0.25	1	10%	0
STL S. Perunovich	0.6	0	0.30	1	3%	0
STL M. Kessel	0.6	1	0.13	0	2%	0
NYR M. Rempe	0.5	0	0.11	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.