Game Recap: STL 1, NYR 3, November 3, 2026

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Game Recap

STL1

FinalTue, Nov 3, 2026Every game that night

NYR3

NYR beat STL 3-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.62 expected goals to 2.82. A. Fox led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). D. Holloway had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. D. Garand stopped 32 of 33.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
STL	0	0	1	1
NYR	0	1	2	3

2nd 1:49NYRA. Fox0.15 xG
3rd 9:01NYRO. Bjorkstrand0.19 xG
3rd 17:59NYRE. TolvanenEN0.62 xG
3rd 19:01STLP. Suter0.01 xG

Team Stats

STLNYR

33Shots on goal31

2.82Expected goals4.62

62Shot attempts64

245v5 shots on goal19

0/6Power play0/3

21Hits23

18Blocked shots17

6Penalty minutes12

18Giveaways16

6Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

STL 2.82 xGNYR 4.62 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

STL33 on goal, 1 scored

NYR31 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
P. Suter	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	0	12:17	0:00
A. Toropchenko	RW	0	1	1	1	3	3	+1	0	10:55	0:00
R. Thomas	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	22:05	7:06
J. Snuggerud	RW	0	0	0	2	3	0	-1	0	20:03	7:09
M. McTavish	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	-3	0	18:55	6:49
P. Buchnevich	LW	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	0	18:49	4:02
J. Neighbours	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	2	18:14	6:16
D. Holloway	LW	0	0	0	5	2	0	-1	0	17:28	3:41
C. McMichael	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	2	14:22	3:14
J. Berggren	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	11:28	0:00
D. Dvorsky	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	10:26	0:07
R. Johnston	LW	0	0	0	1	2	3	+1	0	7:21	0:00
T. Lindstein	D	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	2	12:55	0:00
P. Broberg	D	0	0	0	4	0	5	-1	0	27:34	6:58
C. Fowler	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	-2	0	19:12	3:26
J. Barron	D	0	0	0	3	2	1	-1	0	18:46	0:00
B. Carlo	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	+1	0	17:20	0:00
A. Jiricek	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	17:17	3:24

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Hofer	30	28	2	.933	58:33	Loss
J. Binnington	0	0	0	–	0:00

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Miller	C	0	2	2	4	1	2	+2	2	20:10	3:25
E. Tolvanen	RW	1	1	2	1	1	2	+2	0	13:22	0:00
T. Kartye	LW	0	1	1	3	2	0	+2	0	20:01	3:24
W. Cuylle	LW	0	1	1	3	4	1	+1	0	18:19	3:22
O. Bjorkstrand	RW	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	10:59	3:08
M. Zibanejad	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	2	17:54	2:38
A. Lafrenière	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	15:05	2:35
G. Perreault	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	14:37	2:35
N. Laba	C	0	0	0	0	3	2	-1	2	14:16	0:01
P. Dorofeyev	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	13:15	2:36
J. Chmelar	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	8:40	0:00
M. Rempe	C	0	0	0	1	5	0	-1	0	8:29	0:00
A. Fox	D	1	1	2	3	0	0	+2	0	23:40	5:26
B. Schneider	D	0	0	0	2	5	1	-1	0	22:10	0:16
V. Gavrikov	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	0	21:24	0:34
M. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	1	1	4	-1	0	20:50	0:00
A. Smits	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	2	13:20	0:00
S. Morrow	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	+2	2	13:07	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Garand	33	32	1	.970	60:00	Win
J. Reimer	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

STL

Line 1R. Thomas11:41D. Holloway13:21J. Snuggerud12:34

Line 2J. Neighbours11:15D. Dvorsky10:19P. Buchnevich12:07

Line 3M. McTavish11:25J. Berggren10:46C. McMichael9:26

Line 4A. Toropchenko8:36P. Suter8:44R. Johnston7:21

Pair 1C. Fowler13:13A. Jiricek13:53

Pair 2B. Carlo13:29P. Broberg16:09

Pair 3J. Barron15:31T. Lindstein12:55

NYR

Line 1J. Miller13:18T. Kartye13:07G. Perreault12:02

Line 2M. Zibanejad13:08A. Lafrenière12:30P. Dorofeyev10:39

Line 3N. Laba10:09J. Chmelar8:40M. Rempe8:29

Line 4W. Cuylle9:15E. Tolvanen8:38O. Bjorkstrand7:29

Pair 1M. Pettersson16:10B. Schneider15:45

Pair 2A. Fox14:04V. Gavrikov14:00

Pair 3S. Morrow12:42A. Smits12:40

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

13 of 25 overs hit (52%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
NYR A. Lafrenière	2.5	+138	-155	2	Under
STL D. Holloway	2.5	+125	-150	5	Over
STL J. Snuggerud	2.5	+115	-140	2	Under
STL M. McTavish	2.5	+130	-156	1	Under
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.5	+120	-148	1	Under
NYR P. Dorofeyev	2.5	-135	+107	1	Under
NYR A. Fox	1.5	-114	+100	3	Over
STL A. Toropchenko	1.5	+135	–	1	Under
NYR B. Schneider	1.5	+140	-165	2	Over
STL C. McMichael	1.5	+100	-120	0	Under
NYR E. Tolvanen	1.5	+110	–	1	Under
NYR G. Perreault	1.5	-140	+130	1	Under
STL J. Berggren	1.5	+150	–	2	Over
NYR J. Miller	1.5	-127	+110	4	Over
STL J. Neighbours	1.5	+125	-140	1	Under
NYR N. Laba	1.5	+180	–	0	Under
NYR O. Bjorkstrand	1.5	+105	-130	3	Over
STL P. Broberg	1.5	-110	-110	4	Over
STL P. Buchnevich	1.5	+115	-115	3	Over
STL P. Suter	1.5	+150	–	2	Over
STL R. Thomas	1.5	+100	-115	2	Over
NYR T. Kartye	1.5	+121	-135	3	Over
NYR V. Gavrikov	1.5	+115	–	1	Under
NYR W. Cuylle	1.5	-150	+122	3	Over
STL D. Dvorsky	0.5	-220	–	1	Over

4 of 36 overs hit (11%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
NYR A. Fox	0.5	+600	-1000	1	Over
STL A. Jiricek	0.5	+1000	-2800	0	Under
NYR A. Lafrenière	0.5	+210	-290	0	Under
NYR A. Smits	0.5	+1700	-4000	0	Under
STL A. Toropchenko	0.5	+950	-1600	0	Under
STL B. Carlo	0.5	+1500	-4000	0	Under
NYR B. Schneider	0.5	+1100	-2000	0	Under
STL C. Fowler	0.5	+1100	-2800	0	Under
STL C. McMichael	0.5	+400	-550	0	Under
STL D. Dvorsky	0.5	+600	-1200	0	Under
STL D. Holloway	0.5	+250	-300	0	Under
NYR E. Tolvanen	0.5	+550	-750	1	Over
NYR G. Perreault	0.5	+300	-400	0	Under
STL J. Barron	0.5	+1700	-3500	0	Under
STL J. Berggren	0.5	+600	-900	0	Under
NYR J. Chmelar	0.5	+850	-1600	0	Under
NYR J. Miller	0.5	+295	-420	0	Under
STL J. Neighbours	0.5	+330	-550	0	Under
STL J. Snuggerud	0.5	+220	-285	0	Under
STL M. McTavish	0.5	+270	-290	0	Under
NYR M. Pettersson	0.5	+1900	-3500	0	Under
NYR M. Rempe	0.5	+1100	-1600	0	Under
NYR M. Zibanejad	0.5	+210	-280	0	Under
NYR N. Laba	0.5	+900	-1200	0	Under
NYR O. Bjorkstrand	0.5	+425	-650	1	Over
STL P. Broberg	0.5	+650	-1200	0	Under
STL P. Buchnevich	0.5	+360	-500	0	Under
NYR P. Dorofeyev	0.5	+200	-240	0	Under
STL P. Suter	0.5	+600	-750	1	Over
STL R. Johnston	0.5	+1400	-2000	0	Under
STL R. Thomas	0.5	+275	-370	0	Under
NYR S. Morrow	0.5	+1400	-2800	0	Under
NYR T. Kartye	0.5	+500	-750	0	Under
STL T. Lindstein	0.5	+1900	-3500	0	Under
NYR V. Gavrikov	0.5	+1000	-2800	0	Under
NYR W. Cuylle	0.5	+320	-450	0	Under

4 of 19 overs hit (21%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
NYR A. Fox	0.5	-115	-105	1	Over
NYR A. Lafrenière	0.5	+155	-200	0	Under
STL C. Fowler	0.5	+250	-350	0	Under
STL C. McMichael	0.5	+240	-300	0	Under
STL D. Holloway	0.5	+180	-200	0	Under
NYR G. Perreault	0.5	+210	-265	0	Under
STL J. Berggren	0.5	+250	-350	0	Under
NYR J. Miller	0.5	+160	-165	2	Over
STL J. Neighbours	0.5	+230	-275	0	Under
STL J. Snuggerud	0.5	+185	-225	0	Under
STL M. McTavish	0.5	+220	-275	0	Under
NYR M. Zibanejad	0.5	+124	-135	0	Under
STL P. Broberg	0.5	+165	-175	0	Under
STL P. Buchnevich	0.5	+225	-260	0	Under
NYR P. Dorofeyev	0.5	+175	-213	0	Under
STL R. Thomas	0.5	-105	-110	0	Under
NYR T. Kartye	0.5	+245	-345	1	Over
NYR V. Gavrikov	0.5	+270	-380	0	Under
NYR W. Cuylle	0.5	+310	-450	1	Over

5 of 20 overs hit (25%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
NYR A. Fox	0.5	-150	+125	2	Over
NYR A. Lafrenière	0.5	-135	+110	0	Under
STL C. Fowler	0.5	+195	-260	0	Under
STL C. McMichael	0.5	+125	-150	0	Under
STL D. Holloway	0.5	-122	+100	0	Under
NYR G. Perreault	0.5	+100	-127	0	Under
STL J. Berggren	0.5	+160	-215	0	Under
NYR J. Miller	0.5	-110	-105	2	Over
STL J. Neighbours	0.5	+115	-125	0	Under
STL J. Snuggerud	0.5	-125	+105	0	Under
STL M. McTavish	0.5	-110	-117	0	Under
NYR M. Zibanejad	0.5	-160	+135	0	Under
NYR O. Bjorkstrand	0.5	+170	-230	1	Over
STL P. Broberg	0.5	+125	-135	0	Under
STL P. Buchnevich	0.5	+125	-140	0	Under
NYR P. Dorofeyev	0.5	-135	+115	0	Under
STL R. Thomas	0.5	-170	+135	0	Under
NYR T. Kartye	0.5	+150	-190	1	Over
NYR V. Gavrikov	0.5	+205	-275	0	Under
NYR W. Cuylle	0.5	+145	-175	1	Over

0 of 17 overs hit (0%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	Result
NYR A. Fox	0.5	+230	-275	Under
NYR A. Lafrenière	0.5	+280	-375	Under
STL C. McMichael	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
STL D. Holloway	0.5	+360	-525	Under
NYR E. Tolvanen	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
NYR G. Perreault	0.5	+475	-1400	Under
NYR J. Miller	0.5	+320	-500	Under
STL J. Neighbours	0.5	+425	-650	Under
STL J. Snuggerud	0.5	+340	-450	Under
STL M. McTavish	0.5	+270	-500	Under
NYR M. Zibanejad	0.5	+250	-350	Under
NYR O. Bjorkstrand	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
STL P. Broberg	0.5	+360	-550	Under
STL P. Buchnevich	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
NYR P. Dorofeyev	0.5	+270	-350	Under
STL R. Thomas	0.5	+300	-300	Under
NYR W. Cuylle	0.5	+500	-1600	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
STL J. Hofer	23.5	-112	-109	28	Over
NYR D. Garand	22.5	+100	-117	32	Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	STL 3.1, NYR 3.1	STL 1, NYR 3
Total goals	6.1	4
Shots on goal	STL 25.5, NYR 25.9	STL 33, NYR 31
Win chance	NYR 50%	NYR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NYR P. Dorofeyev	2.8	1	0.74	0	35%	0
STL D. Holloway	2.5	5	0.83	0	27%	0
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.3	1	0.88	0	29%	0
STL J. Snuggerud	2.3	2	0.77	0	27%	0
STL M. McTavish	2.3	1	0.63	0	24%	0
NYR A. Lafrenière	2.1	2	0.75	0	28%	0
NYR J. Miller	1.9	4	0.87	2	27%	0
NYR W. Cuylle	1.9	3	0.49	1	23%	0
NYR G. Perreault	1.7	1	0.52	0	22%	0
NYR A. Fox	1.7	3	0.83	2	11%	1
STL A. Jiricek	1.6	0	0.28	0	10%	0
STL R. Thomas	1.6	2	1.00	0	26%	0
STL C. McMichael	1.6	0	0.56	0	20%	0
STL P. Broberg	1.6	4	0.50	0	11%	0
NYR E. Tolvanen	1.5	1	0.37	2	18%	1
NYR V. Gavrikov	1.4	1	0.33	0	7%	0
NYR O. Bjorkstrand	1.4	3	0.38	1	17%	1
NYR T. Kartye	1.4	3	0.45	1	16%	0
NYR B. Schneider	1.3	2	0.23	0	5%	0
STL P. Buchnevich	1.3	3	0.53	0	20%	0
STL J. Neighbours	1.2	1	0.46	0	18%	0
STL J. Berggren	1.2	2	0.37	0	14%	0
STL B. Carlo	1.2	1	0.16	0	4%	0
STL P. Suter	1.1	2	0.36	1	15%	1
NYR S. Morrow	1.1	2	0.24	0	4%	0
STL C. Fowler	1.1	2	0.44	0	7%	0
STL D. Dvorsky	1.1	1	0.24	0	12%	0
STL T. Lindstein	1.0	2	0.19	1	5%	0
STL A. Toropchenko	1.0	1	0.21	1	9%	0
STL J. Barron	0.9	3	0.25	0	6%	0
NYR M. Pettersson	0.8	1	0.27	0	4%	0
NYR J. Chmelar	0.7	2	0.16	0	8%	0
NYR N. Laba	0.7	0	0.24	0	9%	0
NYR M. Rempe	0.6	1	0.12	0	6%	0
NYR A. Smits	0.6	0	0.10	0	3%	0
STL R. Johnston	0.5	1	0.15	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.