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Game Recap
STL3
SEA2
STL beat SEA 3-2, with the chances close: 2.47 expected goals to 2.90. J. Kyrou led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). J. Binnington stopped 30 of 32.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| SEA | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
- 2nd 0:27SEAV. Dunn0.02 xG
- 2nd 2:20SEAE. Tolvanen0.05 xG
- 2nd 13:42STLJ. KyrouPP0.16 xG
- 2nd 15:17STLP. Broberg0.02 xG
- 2nd 15:37STLJ. Kyrou0.15 xG
Team Stats
STLSEA
25Shots on goal32
2.47Expected goals2.90
57Shot attempts70
235v5 shots on goal30
1/2Power play0/1
31Hits22
18Blocked shots16
11Penalty minutes13
13Giveaways10
4Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
STL 2.47 xGSEA 2.90 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
STL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Kyrou | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:38 | 2:13 |
| R. Thomas | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:05 | 2:14 |
| D. Holloway | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:01 | 0:00 |
| A. Texier | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13:03 | 0:00 |
| B. Schenn | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 3 | -1 | 2 | 18:42 | 0:09 |
| P. Buchnevich | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:37 | 2:05 |
| K. Kapanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:45 | 0:08 |
| M. Joseph | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:40 | 0:12 |
| J. Neighbours | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:16 | 2:10 |
| R. Faksa | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9:58 | 0:00 |
| A. Toropchenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9:40 | 0:00 |
| N. Walker | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9:33 | 0:00 |
| J. Faulk | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 23:10 | 2:10 |
| P. Broberg | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 20:23 | 0:00 |
| N. Leddy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 24:19 | 0:17 |
| C. Parayko | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 22:35 | 0:12 |
| R. Suter | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:54 | 0:00 |
| M. Kessel | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:41 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Binnington | 32 | 30 | 2 | .938 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Hofer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
SEA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Eberle | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:58 | 0:53 |
| E. Tolvanen | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:26 | 0:00 |
| C. Stephenson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 19:51 | 1:07 |
| M. Beniers | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:00 | 0:53 |
| J. Schwartz | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:15 | 1:07 |
| A. Burakovsky | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:42 | 0:53 |
| J. McCann | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:10 | 0:53 |
| B. Tanev | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:29 | 0:00 |
| S. Wright | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:22 | 1:07 |
| Y. Gourde | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 13:32 | 0:00 |
| O. Bjorkstrand | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:41 | 1:07 |
| T. Kartye | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:52 | 0:00 |
| V. Dunn | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 22:43 | 0:53 |
| R. Evans | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:21 | 0:00 |
| W. Borgen | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:47 | 0:00 |
| B. Montour | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 24:14 | 1:07 |
| J. Oleksiak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:40 | 0:00 |
| A. Larsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | +1 | 4 | 19:17 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Grubauer | 25 | 22 | 3 | .880 | 58:18 | Loss |
| J. Daccord | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | STL 3.0, SEA 3.1 | STL 3, SEA 2 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | STL 27.0, SEA 31.0 | STL 25, SEA 32 |
| Win chance | SEA 52% | STL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA J. McCann | 3.2 | 2 | 0.84 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| STL J. Kyrou | 2.8 | 3 | 0.75 | 2 | 30% | 2 |
| SEA J. Eberle | 2.4 | 1 | 0.65 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| SEA B. Montour | 2.4 | 3 | 0.51 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| SEA O. Bjorkstrand | 2.3 | 4 | 0.65 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| SEA A. Burakovsky | 2.3 | 1 | 0.62 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| STL P. Buchnevich | 2.3 | 3 | 0.77 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| STL B. Schenn | 2.2 | 3 | 0.65 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| SEA J. Schwartz | 2.1 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| SEA M. Beniers | 2.0 | 3 | 0.60 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| SEA Y. Gourde | 2.0 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| STL J. Faulk | 2.0 | 0 | 0.45 | 2 | 9% | 0 |
| STL J. Neighbours | 1.9 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| SEA V. Dunn | 1.9 | 4 | 0.61 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| STL R. Thomas | 1.9 | 0 | 0.89 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| SEA E. Tolvanen | 1.9 | 2 | 0.46 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| STL C. Parayko | 1.8 | 4 | 0.32 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| STL A. Texier | 1.7 | 2 | 0.48 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| STL M. Joseph | 1.7 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| SEA A. Larsson | 1.7 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| STL A. Toropchenko | 1.6 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| SEA T. Kartye | 1.5 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| SEA S. Wright | 1.5 | 1 | 0.52 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| SEA C. Stephenson | 1.4 | 1 | 0.69 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| SEA R. Evans | 1.4 | 2 | 0.26 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| STL K. Kapanen | 1.4 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| SEA B. Tanev | 1.3 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| SEA J. Oleksiak | 1.3 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SEA W. Borgen | 1.3 | 2 | 0.27 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| STL D. Holloway | 1.2 | 1 | 0.23 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| STL N. Leddy | 1.1 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| STL R. Faksa | 1.0 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| STL N. Walker | 1.0 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| STL M. Kessel | 0.9 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| STL P. Broberg | 0.8 | 1 | 0.19 | 1 | 5% | 1 |
| STL R. Suter | 0.8 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.