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Game Recap
STL3
SEA4
SEA beat STL 4-3 in a shootout, with the chances close: 1.61 expected goals to 1.90. N. Leddy led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). P. Grubauer stopped 20 of 23.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | SO | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| SEA | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
- 2nd 3:44SEAJ. Schwartz0.08 xG
- 3rd 1:06STLR. Faksa0.05 xG
- 3rd 6:44SEAM. Eyssimont0.07 xG
- 3rd 7:21STLC. Parayko0.15 xG
- 3rd 7:34STLN. Leddy0.04 xG
- 3rd 9:53SEAS. Wright0.09 xG
Team Stats
STLSEA
23Shots on goal18
1.90Expected goals1.61
53Shot attempts47
205v5 shots on goal14
0/1Power play0/2
25Hits18
15Blocked shots19
4Penalty minutes2
8Giveaways19
4Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
STL 1.90 xGSEA 1.61 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
STL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Thomas | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:34 | 1:48 |
| J. Kyrou | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 17:40 | 0:12 |
| Z. Bolduc | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:33 | 1:48 |
| M. Joseph | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 12:36 | 0:00 |
| N. Walker | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 11:00 | 0:00 |
| R. Faksa | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 10:45 | 0:00 |
| P. Buchnevich | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:55 | 1:48 |
| B. Schenn | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 19:33 | 0:12 |
| J. Neighbours | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:13 | 0:12 |
| J. Snuggerud | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:52 | 1:48 |
| O. Sundqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:47 | 0:00 |
| A. Toropchenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 10:27 | 0:00 |
| N. Leddy | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:45 | 0:12 |
| C. Parayko | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | +1 | 0 | 23:21 | 0:00 |
| J. Faulk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 22:58 | 0:12 |
| C. Fowler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:46 | 1:48 |
| T. Tucker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:26 | 0:00 |
| R. Suter | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:07 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Binnington | 18 | 15 | 3 | .833 | 64:42 | OT loss |
| J. Hofer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
SEA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Kartye | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 9:55 | 0:00 |
| J. Eberle | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:58 | 1:51 |
| J. Schwartz | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:35 | 1:48 |
| S. Wright | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 14:35 | 2:12 |
| M. Eyssimont | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:22 | 0:00 |
| C. Stephenson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:14 | 2:17 |
| M. Beniers | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 0 | 20:11 | 1:45 |
| A. Burakovsky | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:51 | 2:09 |
| J. McCann | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:07 | 1:48 |
| E. Tolvanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:41 | 0:00 |
| K. Kakko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:21 | 2:09 |
| R. Winterton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:13 | 0:00 |
| J. Oleksiak | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:30 | 0:01 |
| B. Montour | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 26:25 | 2:08 |
| V. Dunn | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 23:55 | 1:52 |
| A. Larsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:39 | 0:00 |
| R. Evans | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 2 | 20:29 | 0:00 |
| J. Mahura | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:19 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Grubauer | 23 | 20 | 3 | .870 | 64:40 | Win |
| J. Daccord | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | STL 3.2, SEA 3.0 | STL 3, SEA 4 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | STL 26.4, SEA 27.2 | STL 23, SEA 18 |
| Win chance | STL 53% | SEA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL J. Kyrou | 2.7 | 5 | 0.79 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| SEA J. McCann | 2.5 | 1 | 0.71 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| SEA B. Montour | 2.4 | 3 | 0.48 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| SEA J. Schwartz | 2.2 | 1 | 0.50 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| STL P. Buchnevich | 2.1 | 0 | 0.81 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| STL R. Thomas | 2.0 | 0 | 1.07 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| SEA V. Dunn | 1.9 | 0 | 0.60 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| SEA E. Tolvanen | 1.9 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| SEA M. Beniers | 1.8 | 0 | 0.54 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| SEA J. Eberle | 1.8 | 2 | 0.58 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| SEA M. Eyssimont | 1.8 | 2 | 0.23 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| STL Z. Bolduc | 1.8 | 3 | 0.48 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| STL B. Schenn | 1.7 | 2 | 0.62 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| STL J. Faulk | 1.7 | 3 | 0.48 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| STL C. Parayko | 1.7 | 2 | 0.38 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| SEA K. Kakko | 1.5 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| SEA A. Burakovsky | 1.5 | 2 | 0.46 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| STL J. Neighbours | 1.5 | 0 | 0.52 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| SEA A. Larsson | 1.4 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| SEA S. Wright | 1.3 | 3 | 0.55 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| STL J. Snuggerud | 1.3 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| STL A. Toropchenko | 1.2 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| SEA R. Winterton | 1.2 | 2 | 0.13 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| STL C. Fowler | 1.2 | 2 | 0.49 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| STL N. Walker | 1.1 | 1 | 0.28 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| SEA C. Stephenson | 1.1 | 0 | 0.64 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| STL M. Joseph | 1.1 | 0 | 0.26 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| STL R. Faksa | 1.0 | 1 | 0.23 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| SEA J. Mahura | 1.0 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| SEA T. Kartye | 0.9 | 0 | 0.19 | 2 | 10% | 0 |
| STL O. Sundqvist | 0.9 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| STL T. Tucker | 0.9 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SEA R. Evans | 0.9 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| SEA J. Oleksiak | 0.8 | 0 | 0.18 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| STL N. Leddy | 0.8 | 1 | 0.24 | 2 | 3% | 1 |
| STL R. Suter | 0.7 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.