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Game Recap
STL3
SEA2
STL beat SEA 3-2 despite fewer good chances: 3.04 expected goals to 3.62. SEA outshot STL 36 to 27. B. Schenn led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). D. Holloway had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. J. Hofer stopped 34 of 36.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| SEA | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
- 1st 0:31SEAJ. Schwartz0.46 xG
- 1st 6:50STLL. Mailloux0.41 xG
- 2nd 7:40STLD. Holloway0.32 xG
- 3rd 1:33STLR. Thomas0.13 xG
- 3rd 13:34SEAV. Dunn0.20 xG
Team Stats
STLSEA
27Shots on goal36
3.04Expected goals3.62
48Shot attempts65
225v5 shots on goal25
0/2Power play0/4
18Hits21
12Blocked shots13
8Penalty minutes4
12Giveaways13
4Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
STL 3.04 xGSEA 3.62 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
STL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Schenn | C | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 14:24 | 1:10 |
| R. Thomas | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:53 | 1:10 |
| D. Holloway | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:12 | 1:10 |
| P. Buchnevich | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:49 | 1:22 |
| P. Suter | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:08 | 0:00 |
| D. Dvorsky | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:27 | 1:22 |
| J. Kyrou | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:26 | 1:22 |
| J. Snuggerud | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:21 | 1:10 |
| J. Neighbours | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:58 | 1:22 |
| A. Toropchenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13:02 | 0:00 |
| O. Sundqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:48 | 0:00 |
| J. Finley | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:03 | 0:00 |
| P. Broberg | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 26:19 | 1:10 |
| L. Mailloux | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 22:52 | 0:00 |
| C. Fowler | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 20:44 | 0:00 |
| J. Faulk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 22:45 | 1:22 |
| M. Kessel | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:10 | 0:00 |
| T. Tucker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:39 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Hofer | 36 | 34 | 2 | .944 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Binnington | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
SEA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. McCann | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:43 | 4:38 |
| J. Eberle | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:29 | 4:19 |
| J. Schwartz | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:49 | 1:59 |
| M. Beniers | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 19:19 | 4:27 |
| C. Stephenson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:51 | 4:12 |
| E. Tolvanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 16:45 | 2:15 |
| F. Gaudreau | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 15:18 | 0:00 |
| B. Meyers | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:00 | 0:02 |
| K. Kakko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:04 | 1:50 |
| S. Wright | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:36 | 1:51 |
| B. Catton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:20 | 0:00 |
| J. Melanson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:02 | 0:00 |
| V. Dunn | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 20:12 | 4:42 |
| A. Larsson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 19:47 | 0:32 |
| B. Montour | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 26:10 | 3:28 |
| J. Oleksiak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:09 | 0:00 |
| R. Evans | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 16:36 | 0:03 |
| R. Lindgren | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:46 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Grubauer | 27 | 24 | 3 | .889 | 58:04 | Loss |
| J. Daccord | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
STL
Line 1D. Holloway14:06P. Suter12:57D. Dvorsky13:05
Line 2R. Thomas13:04J. Snuggerud12:34B. Schenn12:18
Line 3J. Kyrou13:04J. Neighbours12:36P. Buchnevich12:46
Line 4O. Sundqvist10:13A. Toropchenko10:39J. Finley10:09
Pair 1J. Faulk18:44P. Broberg20:00
Pair 2C. Fowler19:17L. Mailloux19:28
SEA
Line 1J. Schwartz12:50E. Tolvanen13:54C. Stephenson12:47
Line 2F. Gaudreau12:49B. Meyers12:02J. Melanson11:02
Line 3J. McCann12:11M. Beniers13:36J. Eberle12:33
Pair 1B. Montour21:32J. Oleksiak18:34
Pair 2A. Larsson16:41V. Dunn14:36
Pair 3R. Evans15:05R. Lindgren11:49
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | STL 2.9, SEA 2.9 | STL 3, SEA 2 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | STL 26.0, SEA 25.0 | STL 27, SEA 36 |
| Win chance | SEA 50% | STL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL J. Kyrou | 2.7 | 2 | 0.70 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| SEA B. Montour | 2.5 | 6 | 0.55 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| SEA J. McCann | 2.4 | 5 | 0.81 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| STL D. Holloway | 2.3 | 6 | 0.63 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| STL J. Snuggerud | 2.1 | 2 | 0.53 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| SEA V. Dunn | 2.0 | 3 | 0.64 | 2 | 12% | 1 |
| STL P. Buchnevich | 1.9 | 0 | 0.69 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| STL J. Faulk | 1.9 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| SEA J. Eberle | 1.9 | 3 | 0.65 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| SEA J. Schwartz | 1.9 | 1 | 0.52 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| SEA M. Beniers | 1.8 | 5 | 0.61 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| SEA E. Tolvanen | 1.7 | 2 | 0.49 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| STL P. Suter | 1.6 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| STL R. Thomas | 1.6 | 2 | 0.85 | 2 | 22% | 1 |
| STL B. Schenn | 1.6 | 3 | 0.52 | 3 | 20% | 0 |
| STL D. Dvorsky | 1.5 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| STL P. Broberg | 1.5 | 3 | 0.41 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| SEA S. Wright | 1.4 | 0 | 0.50 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| STL J. Neighbours | 1.4 | 0 | 0.53 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| STL L. Mailloux | 1.3 | 4 | 0.19 | 1 | 6% | 1 |
| SEA A. Larsson | 1.3 | 3 | 0.35 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| SEA B. Meyers | 1.2 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| SEA K. Kakko | 1.2 | 2 | 0.45 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| STL C. Fowler | 1.1 | 1 | 0.36 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| SEA C. Stephenson | 1.1 | 1 | 0.67 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| STL T. Tucker | 1.1 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| STL A. Toropchenko | 1.1 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| SEA F. Gaudreau | 1.0 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| SEA B. Catton | 1.0 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| SEA J. Melanson | 1.0 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| SEA J. Oleksiak | 1.0 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| STL O. Sundqvist | 0.8 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| SEA R. Evans | 0.7 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| STL M. Kessel | 0.6 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| SEA R. Lindgren | 0.6 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| STL J. Finley | 0.6 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.