STL beat SJS 5-4 in overtime, with the chances close: 3.32 expected goals to 2.72. STL outshot SJS 40 to 29. T. Toffoli led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). B. Schenn had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. J. Hofer stopped 25 of 29.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| SJS | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
- 1st 7:01SJSM. Celebrini0.02 xG
- 1st 8:51STLP. Buchnevich0.08 xG
- 1st 17:14SJST. Toffoli0.29 xG
- 2nd 8:26SJSF. ZetterlundPP0.24 xG
- 2nd 17:37SJSB. GoodrowSH0.13 xG
- 3rd 2:54STLR. Faksa0.12 xG
- 3rd 6:11STLR. Suter0.14 xG
- 3rd 19:13STLJ. Faulk0.03 xG
- OT 0:45STLB. Schenn0.06 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
STL 3.32 xGSJS 2.72 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
STL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Thomas | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:04 | 2:17 |
| J. Kyrou | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:28 | 2:18 |
| P. Buchnevich | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:22 | 2:19 |
| B. Schenn | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:35 | 1:40 |
| A. Toropchenko | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 13:43 | 0:00 |
| R. Faksa | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 12:24 | 0:02 |
| N. Walker | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 12:24 | 0:00 |
| J. Neighbours | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:10 | 2:18 |
| K. Kapanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 14:38 | 1:42 |
| Z. Bolduc | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:30 | 1:37 |
| D. Holloway | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:03 | 1:41 |
| M. Joseph | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 11:57 | 0:00 |
| C. Parayko | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 24:14 | 0:06 |
| J. Faulk | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:52 | 2:27 |
| P. Broberg | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:27 | 1:33 |
| R. Suter | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:14 | 0:00 |
| N. Leddy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 24:27 | 0:00 |
| M. Kessel | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:53 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Hofer | 29 | 25 | 4 | .862 | 59:02 | Win |
| J. Binnington | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
SJS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Toffoli | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 18:11 | 1:31 |
| M. Celebrini | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:35 | 1:44 |
| W. Eklund | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 21:20 | 0:49 |
| M. Granlund | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:15 | 1:43 |
| F. Zetterlund | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:10 | 1:33 |
| B. Goodrow | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:05 | 0:00 |
| A. Wennberg | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 16:37 | 1:02 |
| L. Kunin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:27 | 0:00 |
| W. Smith | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:41 | 1:00 |
| N. Sturm | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 10:39 | 0:00 |
| D. Gushchin | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 10:20 | 0:50 |
| T. Dellandrea | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 9:35 | 0:00 |
| J. Walman | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -1 | 0 | 24:59 | 1:38 |
| J. Rutta | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | +1 | 0 | 20:25 | 0:00 |
| C. Ceci | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 23:55 | 0:00 |
| M. Ferraro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:38 | 0:00 |
| H. Thrun | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:01 | 0:55 |
| M. Benning | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 12:22 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Blackwood | 40 | 35 | 5 | .875 | 60:45 | OT loss |
| V. Vanecek | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | STL 3.8, SJS 2.7 | STL 5, SJS 4 |
| Total goals | 6.5 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | STL 32.3, SJS 28.2 | STL 40, SJS 29 |
| Win chance | STL 66% | STL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL J. Kyrou | 3.1 | 1 | 0.96 | 2 | 35% | 0 |
| SJS F. Zetterlund | 2.9 | 3 | 0.58 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| SJS T. Toffoli | 2.7 | 4 | 0.63 | 2 | 27% | 1 |
| STL P. Buchnevich | 2.6 | 2 | 0.97 | 1 | 31% | 1 |
| STL B. Schenn | 2.4 | 7 | 0.82 | 1 | 27% | 1 |
| STL J. Faulk | 2.4 | 2 | 0.65 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| SJS M. Granlund | 2.2 | 4 | 0.83 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| STL C. Parayko | 2.2 | 3 | 0.43 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| STL J. Neighbours | 2.1 | 2 | 0.56 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| STL R. Thomas | 2.1 | 3 | 1.11 | 2 | 27% | 0 |
| SJS D. Gushchin | 2.0 | 3 | 0.52 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| STL Z. Bolduc | 2.0 | 2 | 0.51 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| SJS W. Eklund | 1.9 | 2 | 0.62 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| STL M. Joseph | 1.9 | 3 | 0.53 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| SJS J. Walman | 1.8 | 1 | 0.28 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| STL A. Toropchenko | 1.7 | 1 | 0.33 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| SJS L. Kunin | 1.6 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| STL K. Kapanen | 1.6 | 3 | 0.44 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| SJS M. Ferraro | 1.5 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| STL D. Holloway | 1.5 | 3 | 0.33 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| SJS N. Sturm | 1.3 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| STL N. Leddy | 1.3 | 2 | 0.44 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SJS J. Rutta | 1.3 | 1 | 0.28 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| SJS C. Ceci | 1.2 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SJS T. Dellandrea | 1.2 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| SJS A. Wennberg | 1.1 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| STL N. Walker | 1.1 | 1 | 0.32 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| STL R. Faksa | 1.1 | 1 | 0.26 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| STL P. Broberg | 1.1 | 2 | 0.29 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| SJS H. Thrun | 1.0 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| SJS B. Goodrow | 1.0 | 2 | 0.28 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| STL M. Kessel | 1.0 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| STL R. Suter | 1.0 | 2 | 0.24 | 1 | 4% | 1 |
| SJS M. Benning | 0.9 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.