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Game Recap
STL3
SJS2
STL beat SJS 3-2 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.10 expected goals to 2.30. SJS outshot STL 25 to 14. D. Holloway led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). R. Thomas had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. J. Binnington stopped 23 of 25.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| SJS | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
- 1st 6:55STLJ. Snuggerud0.10 xG
- 2nd 14:31SJSM. Celebrini0.05 xG
- 2nd 17:46STLR. Thomas0.15 xG
- 3rd 13:26SJSK. Sherwood0.06 xG
- OT 0:54STLR. Thomas0.22 xG
Team Stats
STLSJS
14Shots on goal25
2.10Expected goals2.30
31Shot attempts52
135v5 shots on goal24
0/2Power play0/2
19Hits25
12Blocked shots9
14Penalty minutes14
17Giveaways22
5Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
STL 2.10 xGSJS 2.30 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
STL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Holloway | LW | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +3 | 5 | 15:48 | 1:08 |
| R. Thomas | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 19:06 | 2:26 |
| J. Snuggerud | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:08 | 2:26 |
| J. Berggren | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 17:32 | 2:26 |
| P. Buchnevich | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:17 | 0:42 |
| P. Suter | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:14 | 1:18 |
| A. Toropchenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:41 | 0:00 |
| D. Dvorsky | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:21 | 0:42 |
| J. Finley | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:10 | 0:00 |
| J. Neighbours | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 11:02 | 0:42 |
| O. Sundqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:39 | 0:00 |
| J. Kyrou | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:34 | 0:42 |
| N. Walker | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10:03 | 0:00 |
| P. Broberg | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 32:51 | 0:00 |
| C. Fowler | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 26:53 | 1:08 |
| L. Mailloux | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 25:03 | 2:00 |
| T. Tucker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:59 | 0:00 |
| M. Kessel | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 14:21 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Binnington | 25 | 23 | 2 | .920 | 60:54 | Win |
| J. Hofer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
SJS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Celebrini | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:36 | 2:28 |
| P. Kurashev | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:58 | 0:29 |
| K. Sherwood | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:34 | 1:04 |
| C. Graf | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:09 | 0:00 |
| T. Toffoli | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:02 | 1:59 |
| A. Wennberg | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:22 | 1:53 |
| W. Eklund | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 17:32 | 1:16 |
| W. Smith | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:31 | 2:25 |
| M. Misa | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:18 | 0:40 |
| A. Gaudette | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:30 | 0:00 |
| Z. Ostapchuk | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 9:42 | 0:05 |
| B. Goodrow | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 5 | 9:04 | 0:00 |
| D. Orlov | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:12 | 2:09 |
| S. Mukhamadullin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:47 | 0:00 |
| M. Ferraro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 20:38 | 0:00 |
| J. Klingberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:46 | 1:08 |
| S. Dickinson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:53 | 0:04 |
| V. Desharnais | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:08 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Nedeljkovic | 14 | 11 | 3 | .786 | 60:54 | OT loss |
| Y. Askarov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
STL
Line 1R. Thomas15:08J. Snuggerud14:42D. Holloway13:46
Line 2J. Berggren15:06D. Dvorsky10:39P. Suter13:48
Line 3P. Buchnevich14:01J. Neighbours10:20J. Kyrou8:50
Line 4A. Toropchenko11:19J. Finley10:40O. Sundqvist10:05
Pair 1P. Broberg28:34L. Mailloux20:02
SJS
Line 1M. Celebrini18:14W. Smith14:06C. Graf13:13
Line 2K. Sherwood14:30P. Kurashev13:56A. Wennberg16:38
Line 3W. Eklund13:48M. Misa13:46T. Toffoli12:03
Line 4A. Gaudette11:30Z. Ostapchuk9:00B. Goodrow8:27
Pair 1S. Mukhamadullin21:49M. Ferraro19:30
Pair 2D. Orlov16:07J. Klingberg17:44
Pair 3S. Dickinson15:01V. Desharnais14:58
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | STL 3.3, SJS 3.1 | STL 3, SJS 2 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | STL 26.5, SJS 27.0 | STL 14, SJS 25 |
| Win chance | STL 53% | STL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS M. Celebrini | 3.5 | 3 | 1.27 | 1 | 35% | 1 |
| STL J. Kyrou | 2.8 | 0 | 0.80 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| STL D. Holloway | 2.5 | 0 | 0.73 | 3 | 27% | 0 |
| SJS K. Sherwood | 2.4 | 1 | 0.55 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| SJS W. Smith | 2.3 | 1 | 0.88 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| SJS T. Toffoli | 2.2 | 1 | 0.65 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| STL J. Snuggerud | 2.2 | 2 | 0.59 | 2 | 21% | 1 |
| STL P. Buchnevich | 2.0 | 2 | 0.80 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| SJS W. Eklund | 1.9 | 2 | 0.59 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| STL P. Suter | 1.7 | 1 | 0.52 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| STL R. Thomas | 1.7 | 5 | 1.00 | 2 | 25% | 2 |
| SJS J. Klingberg | 1.6 | 3 | 0.52 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| STL D. Dvorsky | 1.5 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| STL P. Broberg | 1.5 | 0 | 0.48 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| STL J. Neighbours | 1.4 | 0 | 0.60 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| STL L. Mailloux | 1.4 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| SJS M. Misa | 1.4 | 0 | 0.55 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| STL J. Berggren | 1.4 | 0 | 0.47 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| SJS C. Graf | 1.3 | 1 | 0.50 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| SJS A. Wennberg | 1.3 | 0 | 0.62 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| SJS D. Orlov | 1.3 | 1 | 0.46 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| SJS P. Kurashev | 1.3 | 3 | 0.45 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| SJS M. Ferraro | 1.2 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SJS A. Gaudette | 1.2 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| STL A. Toropchenko | 1.2 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| SJS S. Dickinson | 1.1 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| STL C. Fowler | 1.1 | 0 | 0.43 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| STL T. Tucker | 1.0 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| STL N. Walker | 0.9 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| SJS S. Mukhamadullin | 0.9 | 3 | 0.27 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| STL O. Sundqvist | 0.9 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| SJS B. Goodrow | 0.8 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| SJS V. Desharnais | 0.7 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| STL J. Finley | 0.7 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| SJS Z. Ostapchuk | 0.6 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| STL M. Kessel | 0.6 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.