Game Recap: STL 5, VAN 2, October 13, 2025

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Game Recap

STL5

FinalMon, Oct 13, 2025Every game that night

VAN2

STL beat VAN 5-2, with the chances close: 3.35 expected goals to 3.16. J. Snuggerud led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). J. Snuggerud had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. J. Binnington stopped 27 of 29.

Team Stats

STLVAN

36Shots on goal29

3.35Expected goals3.16

64Shot attempts64

315v5 shots on goal23

1/3Power play0/1

22Hits29

17Blocked shots17

2Penalty minutes6

16Giveaways23

8Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

STL 3.35 xGVAN 3.16 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

STL34 on goal, 4 scored

VAN29 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Schenn	C	1	1	2	2	2	1	-1	0	16:30	2:11
J. Snuggerud	RW	2	0	2	6	0	1	0	0	16:12	2:13
J. Kyrou	RW	0	1	1	0	1	2	0	0	17:11	2:17
P. Suter	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	17:05	2:14
P. Buchnevich	LW	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	16:53	2:14
J. Neighbours	LW	1	0	1	2	2	2	+1	0	15:09	2:14
M. Joseph	RW	0	1	1	4	1	1	+1	0	14:59	0:00
N. Walker	LW	0	1	1	2	4	0	+1	0	10:31	0:00
N. Bjugstad	C	1	0	1	2	2	0	+1	0	9:53	0:00
A. Texier	LW	0	1	1	0	1	1	+1	0	9:05	0:00
D. Holloway	LW	0	0	0	2	4	1	0	2	19:42	2:15
R. Thomas	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	18:52	2:14
P. Broberg	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	19:22	0:00
J. Faulk	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	+1	0	24:42	2:18
C. Parayko	D	0	0	0	5	1	3	+2	0	21:21	0:00
C. Fowler	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	20:50	2:10
T. Tucker	D	0	0	0	3	1	1	+1	0	16:51	0:00
L. Mailloux	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	12:52	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Binnington	29	27	2	.931	60:00	Win
J. Hofer	0	0	0	–	0:00

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Sherwood	LW	2	0	2	4	5	0	+1	0	15:42	0:00
A. Räty	C	0	1	1	0	5	0	+1	0	13:55	0:00
A. Bains	LW	0	1	1	1	2	0	+1	0	12:19	0:00
C. Garland	RW	0	0	0	5	0	1	-1	0	18:37	0:43
B. Boeser	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	17:33	1:17
J. DeBrusk	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	16:47	1:02
F. Chytil	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	-2	0	16:43	1:08
E. Pettersson	C	0	0	0	1	2	2	-1	2	15:36	1:03
E. Kane	LW	0	0	0	2	3	0	-2	0	14:15	0:58
D. O'Connor	LW	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	2	13:38	0:00
J. Lekkerimäki	RW	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	12:09	0:52
B. Cootes	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	11:13	0:45
Q. Hughes	D	0	0	0	5	0	2	-3	0	26:32	1:23
F. Hronek	D	0	0	0	1	3	2	-2	2	24:20	0:37
T. Myers	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	+1	0	18:48	0:12
M. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	17:11	0:00
E. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	16:11	0:00
V. Mancini	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	15:24	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Lankinen	35	31	4	.886	58:39	Loss
T. Demko	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

STL

Line 1J. Kyrou14:04D. Holloway16:25B. Schenn13:31

Line 2P. Buchnevich13:51R. Thomas15:36J. Neighbours12:41

Line 3M. Joseph14:12J. Snuggerud13:49P. Suter13:54

Line 4N. Bjugstad9:18N. Walker9:42A. Texier9:05

Pair 1C. Fowler17:59C. Parayko19:46

Pair 2J. Faulk20:44T. Tucker15:21

Pair 3P. Broberg18:21L. Mailloux12:36

VAN

Line 1E. Kane13:03C. Garland14:49F. Chytil15:21

Line 2B. Boeser15:09J. DeBrusk12:59E. Pettersson13:32

Line 3A. Räty12:35A. Bains12:19K. Sherwood12:50

Line 4D. O'Connor12:12J. Lekkerimäki11:03B. Cootes10:28

Pair 1F. Hronek22:32Q. Hughes23:48

Pair 2T. Myers15:49E. Pettersson14:34

Pair 3M. Pettersson13:57V. Mancini13:55

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamPius Suter STL Faces VAN, his team until Apr 20251 A, 1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	STL 2.9, VAN 2.8	STL 5, VAN 2
Total goals	5.7	7
Shots on goal	STL 24.0, VAN 24.6	STL 36, VAN 29
Win chance	STL 51%	STL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
STL J. Kyrou	2.7	0	0.73	1	30%	0
VAN E. Kane	2.5	2	0.58	0	28%	0
VAN Q. Hughes	2.5	5	0.97	0	14%	0
VAN F. Chytil	2.4	3	0.49	0	21%	0
STL D. Holloway	2.2	2	0.64	0	22%	0
VAN C. Garland	2.1	5	0.57	0	22%	0
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.1	2	0.58	0	27%	0
VAN B. Boeser	2.0	1	0.73	0	30%	0
STL P. Buchnevich	2.0	2	0.79	1	26%	0
STL P. Suter	2.0	1	0.59	1	24%	0
STL C. Parayko	1.8	5	0.44	0	13%	0
VAN K. Sherwood	1.8	4	0.48	2	20%	2
STL R. Thomas	1.7	1	0.96	0	22%	0
STL J. Faulk	1.7	1	0.46	0	10%	0
STL B. Schenn	1.7	2	0.61	2	21%	1
VAN E. Pettersson	1.6	1	0.71	0	25%	0
VAN F. Hronek	1.5	1	0.50	0	8%	0
STL J. Snuggerud	1.5	6	0.47	2	16%	2
STL J. Neighbours	1.4	2	0.55	1	23%	1
VAN D. O'Connor	1.4	1	0.32	0	14%	0
STL C. Fowler	1.4	3	0.58	0	11%	0
STL P. Broberg	1.4	0	0.36	1	10%	0
STL N. Bjugstad	1.3	2	0.24	1	11%	1
VAN T. Myers	1.2	1	0.28	0	5%	0
STL N. Walker	1.2	2	0.31	1	14%	0
VAN J. Lekkerimäki	1.2	0	0.28	0	14%	0
VAN A. Räty	1.2	0	0.31	1	16%	0
STL M. Joseph	1.1	4	0.27	1	9%	0
STL A. Texier	1.1	0	0.29	1	12%	0
STL L. Mailloux	1.0	0	0.30	0	7%	0
VAN M. Pettersson	0.9	1	0.32	0	4%	0
VAN V. Mancini	0.8	1	0.22	0	5%	0
STL T. Tucker	0.8	3	0.16	0	6%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	0.7	0	0.12	0	4%	0
VAN A. Bains	0.6	1	0.15	1	9%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.