STL beat WPG 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.53 expected goals to 1.42. STL outshot WPG 32 to 23. J. Kyrou led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). J. Kyrou had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.7. J. Hofer stopped 22 of 23.
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
STL 3.53 xGWPG 1.42 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
STL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Thomas | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:25 | 2:44 |
| D. Holloway | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:15 | 1:28 |
| J. Kyrou | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 17:14 | 2:35 |
| B. Schenn | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:37 | 2:32 |
| B. Saad | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:49 | 1:29 |
| R. Faksa | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:43 | 0:00 |
| J. Neighbours | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:28 | 2:37 |
| O. Sundqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:58 | 1:23 |
| M. Joseph | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:04 | 0:00 |
| N. Walker | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 12:46 | 0:04 |
| Z. Bolduc | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:44 | 0:32 |
| A. Toropchenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 11:06 | 0:00 |
| S. Perunovich | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 11:10 | 0:00 |
| P. Broberg | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 23:54 | 1:30 |
| C. Parayko | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 26:38 | 2:30 |
| R. Suter | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:58 | 0:48 |
| M. Kessel | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:26 | 0:04 |
| P. Joseph | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:45 | 0:04 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Hofer | 23 | 22 | 1 | .957 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Binnington | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
WPG Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Scheifele | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:03 | 1:15 |
| K. Connor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:55 | 1:16 |
| C. Perfetti | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:29 | 1:14 |
| V. Namestnikov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:18 | 0:48 |
| G. Vilardi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:47 | 1:16 |
| B. Lambert | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15:07 | 0:50 |
| N. Niederreiter | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:35 | 0:49 |
| A. Lowry | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 14:08 | 0:00 |
| M. Appleton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:55 | 0:00 |
| A. Iafallo | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:26 | 0:48 |
| M. Barron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:57 | 0:00 |
| R. Kupari | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:57 | 0:00 |
| J. Morrissey | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 23:02 | 1:04 |
| N. Pionk | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:54 | 1:00 |
| D. DeMelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 21:19 | 0:00 |
| H. Fleury | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 21:06 | 0:00 |
| L. Stanley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:55 | 0:00 |
| V. Heinola | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15:00 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Hellebuyck | 31 | 28 | 3 | .903 | 59:07 | Loss |
| E. Comrie | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | STL 2.7, WPG 3.3 | STL 4, WPG 1 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | STL 28.2, WPG 30.8 | STL 32, WPG 23 |
| Win chance | WPG 59% | STL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG K. Connor | 3.3 | 2 | 1.04 | 0 | 38% | 0 |
| STL J. Kyrou | 2.7 | 7 | 0.71 | 2 | 28% | 2 |
| WPG G. Vilardi | 2.3 | 1 | 0.78 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| WPG J. Morrissey | 2.2 | 3 | 0.81 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| WPG M. Scheifele | 2.2 | 3 | 0.99 | 1 | 35% | 1 |
| WPG N. Niederreiter | 2.0 | 3 | 0.49 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| STL B. Schenn | 1.9 | 0 | 0.55 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| STL R. Thomas | 1.9 | 2 | 0.84 | 2 | 22% | 1 |
| WPG C. Perfetti | 1.9 | 0 | 0.60 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| STL J. Neighbours | 1.8 | 4 | 0.43 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| STL D. Holloway | 1.8 | 4 | 0.36 | 2 | 17% | 1 |
| WPG N. Pionk | 1.8 | 3 | 0.52 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| STL C. Parayko | 1.7 | 3 | 0.33 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| STL B. Saad | 1.6 | 1 | 0.43 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| WPG M. Appleton | 1.5 | 2 | 0.40 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| WPG A. Lowry | 1.4 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| STL Z. Bolduc | 1.3 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| WPG H. Fleury | 1.3 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WPG A. Iafallo | 1.2 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| STL A. Toropchenko | 1.2 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| WPG V. Namestnikov | 1.2 | 0 | 0.47 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| STL M. Joseph | 1.2 | 3 | 0.28 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| STL R. Suter | 1.1 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| STL R. Faksa | 1.1 | 2 | 0.24 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| WPG V. Heinola | 1.1 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| WPG M. Barron | 1.1 | 3 | 0.20 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| STL P. Broberg | 1.0 | 1 | 0.31 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| STL N. Walker | 1.0 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| WPG D. DeMelo | 1.0 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| STL P. Joseph | 0.9 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| WPG L. Stanley | 0.9 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WPG R. Kupari | 0.9 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| STL O. Sundqvist | 0.8 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| STL S. Perunovich | 0.6 | 0 | 0.30 | 2 | 3% | 0 |
| STL M. Kessel | 0.6 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.