Game Recap: STL 1, WPG 3, April 7, 2025

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Game Recap

STL1

FinalMon, Apr 7, 2025Every game that night

WPG3

WPG beat STL 3-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.57 expected goals to 1.08. WPG outshot STL 26 to 15. A. Iafallo had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.6. C. Hellebuyck stopped 14 of 15.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
STL	0	1	0	1
WPG	0	1	2	3

2nd 2:34WPGM. Barron0.12 xG
2nd 7:27STLP. Buchnevich0.14 xG
3rd 7:05WPGA. Iafallo0.18 xG
3rd 19:51WPGA. LowryEN0.73 xG

Team Stats

STLWPG

15Shots on goal26

1.08Expected goals3.57

40Shot attempts64

125v5 shots on goal23

0/2Power play0/1

31Hits26

20Blocked shots18

2Penalty minutes4

18Giveaways12

1Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

STL 1.08 xGWPG 3.57 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

STL15 on goal, 1 scored

WPG26 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Thomas	C	0	1	1	3	1	0	-1	0	19:13	1:49
P. Buchnevich	LW	1	0	1	3	2	0	-1	0	18:40	1:42
B. Schenn	C	0	0	0	0	5	1	-1	0	17:54	1:35
N. Walker	LW	0	0	0	1	3	2	0	0	16:06	0:06
J. Neighbours	LW	0	0	0	0	3	2	-1	0	16:01	1:34
J. Kyrou	RW	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	0	15:56	1:30
J. Snuggerud	RW	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	15:34	1:46
A. Toropchenko	RW	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	14:38	0:05
R. Faksa	C	0	0	0	3	1	2	0	0	14:27	0:08
Z. Bolduc	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	13:28	1:51
O. Sundqvist	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	12:39	1:26
M. Joseph	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	10:57	0:00
P. Broberg	D	0	1	1	0	1	5	0	0	19:27	0:08
C. Fowler	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	20:31	2:07
N. Leddy	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	20:26	0:12
J. Faulk	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	2	19:55	1:06
R. Suter	D	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	17:17	0:00
T. Tucker	D	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	17:16	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Hofer	25	23	2	.920	57:35	Loss
J. Binnington	0	0	0	–	0:00

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Scheifele	C	0	1	1	2	2	3	+1	0	19:49	1:13
K. Connor	LW	0	1	1	2	1	1	0	0	19:41	1:12
A. Iafallo	LW	1	0	1	6	1	1	+1	0	17:23	1:10
A. Lowry	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	15:14	0:00
M. Barron	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	0	10:18	0:00
C. Perfetti	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	18:14	1:25
N. Niederreiter	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	17:02	0:12
V. Namestnikov	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	15:57	0:12
M. Appleton	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	15:50	0:00
B. Tanev	LW	0	0	0	1	2	3	0	2	11:18	0:03
J. Anderson-Dolan	C	0	0	0	0	5	1	+1	0	8:09	0:00
D. Gustafsson	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	8:02	0:00
J. Morrissey	D	0	1	1	3	2	2	+1	0	25:45	1:13
D. DeMelo	D	0	0	0	2	3	1	+1	0	25:54	0:12
D. Samberg	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	20:06	0:12
L. Schenn	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	+1	0	18:04	0:00
L. Stanley	D	0	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	15:30	0:01
H. Fleury	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	13:44	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hellebuyck	15	14	1	.933	60:00	Win
E. Comrie	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

HometownJoel Hofer STL Plays in his hometown23 saves on 25

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	STL 2.6, WPG 3.1	STL 1, WPG 3
Total goals	5.7	4
Shots on goal	STL 24.8, WPG 27.1	STL 15, WPG 26
Win chance	WPG 58%	WPG won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WPG K. Connor	3.2	2	1.01	1	37%	0
STL J. Kyrou	2.4	2	0.62	0	27%	0
WPG J. Morrissey	2.1	3	0.72	1	15%	0
WPG M. Scheifele	2.1	2	0.95	1	34%	0
STL P. Buchnevich	1.9	3	0.65	1	24%	1
WPG C. Perfetti	1.9	2	0.61	0	21%	0
STL R. Thomas	1.9	3	0.87	1	23%	0
STL J. Faulk	1.8	1	0.42	0	7%	0
STL Z. Bolduc	1.7	0	0.41	0	19%	0
WPG N. Niederreiter	1.7	2	0.42	0	20%	0
STL B. Schenn	1.7	0	0.52	0	19%	0
WPG A. Iafallo	1.6	6	0.43	1	18%	1
WPG M. Appleton	1.5	0	0.35	0	14%	0
STL P. Broberg	1.4	0	0.32	1	7%	0
WPG A. Lowry	1.4	2	0.41	1	17%	1
STL J. Neighbours	1.4	0	0.42	0	20%	0
WPG D. Samberg	1.4	0	0.28	0	6%	0
WPG V. Namestnikov	1.3	0	0.45	0	15%	0
STL A. Toropchenko	1.2	1	0.21	0	10%	0
STL C. Fowler	1.2	0	0.40	0	7%	0
WPG J. Anderson-Dolan	1.1	0	0.18	0	10%	0
WPG L. Schenn	1.1	1	0.15	0	4%	0
WPG M. Barron	1.1	2	0.20	1	10%	1
STL M. Joseph	1.0	0	0.22	0	8%	0
STL N. Walker	1.0	1	0.23	0	12%	0
STL R. Faksa	1.0	3	0.20	0	8%	0
WPG D. DeMelo	1.0	2	0.28	0	5%	0
WPG B. Tanev	0.9	1	0.23	0	11%	0
STL O. Sundqvist	0.9	1	0.27	0	10%	0
STL T. Tucker	0.9	0	0.13	0	4%	0
WPG H. Fleury	0.9	1	0.12	0	2%	0
WPG L. Stanley	0.8	0	0.19	0	3%	0
STL N. Leddy	0.8	0	0.19	0	3%	0
WPG D. Gustafsson	0.7	0	0.15	0	6%	0
STL R. Suter	0.7	0	0.15	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.