Game Recap: STL 3, WPG 5, April 19, 2025

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

STL3

FinalSat, Apr 19, 2025PlayoffsEvery game that night

WPG5

WPG beat STL 5-3, and the chances backed it up: 2.92 expected goals to 1.13. WPG outshot STL 26 to 17. K. Connor led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). C. Hellebuyck stopped 14 of 17.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
STL	2	1	0	3
WPG	2	0	3	5

1st 9:31STLR. ThomasPP0.07 xG
1st 13:38WPGM. ScheifelePP0.10 xG
1st 15:02WPGJ. Anderson-Dolan0.10 xG
1st 18:10STLO. Sundqvist0.17 xG
2nd 1:13STLJ. KyrouPP0.04 xG
3rd 9:18WPGA. Iafallo0.04 xG
3rd 18:24WPGK. Connor0.12 xG
3rd 19:07WPGA. LowryEN0.92 xG

Team Stats

STLWPG

17Shots on goal26

1.13Expected goals2.92

35Shot attempts63

145v5 shots on goal22

2/3Power play1/4

53Hits33

16Blocked shots13

58Penalty minutes56

13Giveaways11

6Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

STL 1.13 xGWPG 2.92 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

STL17 on goal, 3 scored

WPG26 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Thomas	C	1	0	1	2	2	0	-2	0	19:52	3:13
P. Buchnevich	LW	0	1	1	0	0	1	-2	10	19:41	3:03
J. Neighbours	LW	0	1	1	2	7	0	-2	12	16:02	0:16
J. Kyrou	RW	1	0	1	4	1	0	-2	0	15:05	0:19
Z. Bolduc	RW	0	1	1	1	3	0	0	2	12:42	3:16
O. Sundqvist	C	1	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	12:01	0:16
J. Snuggerud	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	16:31	3:16
B. Schenn	C	0	0	0	0	9	0	-2	10	15:18	0:29
R. Faksa	C	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	14:15	0:00
N. Walker	LW	0	0	0	0	7	2	0	10	13:07	0:00
A. Toropchenko	RW	0	0	0	1	6	1	0	0	12:43	0:00
M. Joseph	RW	0	0	0	1	4	1	0	10	11:17	0:00
J. Faulk	D	0	2	2	2	4	2	+1	0	20:42	0:21
C. Fowler	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	-3	0	21:23	3:11
P. Broberg	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	21:12	0:00
C. Parayko	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	-2	2	20:44	0:00
R. Suter	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	17:52	0:00
N. Leddy	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	2	14:13	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Binnington	25	21	4	.840	59:04	Loss
J. Hofer	0	0	0	–	0:00

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Connor	LW	1	2	3	5	1	1	+2	0	22:21	4:35
M. Scheifele	C	1	2	3	2	2	0	+2	10	21:40	4:35
A. Iafallo	LW	1	0	1	3	5	1	+2	10	21:31	4:28
A. Lowry	C	1	0	1	2	3	0	+1	0	15:52	0:01
M. Appleton	C	0	1	1	1	2	1	+1	0	15:52	1:01
M. Barron	C	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	9:10	1:04
J. Anderson-Dolan	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	7:07	0:00
C. Perfetti	C	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	17:42	4:37
V. Namestnikov	C	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	14:50	1:02
N. Niederreiter	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	14:08	1:02
B. Tanev	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	14:03	0:01
D. Gustafsson	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	7:12	0:00
J. Morrissey	D	0	2	2	0	2	1	0	0	23:51	4:10
L. Schenn	D	0	1	1	1	5	3	0	12	16:19	0:00
D. Samberg	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	+2	2	21:13	0:06
N. Pionk	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	+2	12	20:34	1:17
D. DeMelo	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	0	19:04	0:11
L. Stanley	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	10	13:22	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hellebuyck	17	14	3	.824	59:59	Win
E. Comrie	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

HometownJoel Hofer STL Plays in his hometown0 saves on 0

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	STL 2.6, WPG 3.1	STL 3, WPG 5
Total goals	5.7	8
Shots on goal	STL 24.4, WPG 27.0	STL 17, WPG 26
Win chance	WPG 58%	WPG won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WPG K. Connor	3.1	5	0.98	3	36%	1
STL J. Kyrou	2.6	4	0.65	1	28%	1
WPG J. Morrissey	2.3	0	0.76	2	15%	0
WPG M. Scheifele	2.2	2	0.93	3	34%	1
WPG C. Perfetti	2.0	2	0.63	0	22%	0
WPG N. Niederreiter	2.0	1	0.46	0	22%	0
STL P. Buchnevich	2.0	0	0.66	1	24%	0
STL Z. Bolduc	1.8	1	0.43	1	20%	0
STL R. Thomas	1.8	2	0.82	1	21%	1
WPG A. Iafallo	1.8	3	0.46	1	20%	1
STL B. Schenn	1.7	0	0.52	0	19%	0
STL J. Faulk	1.7	2	0.38	2	6%	0
STL C. Parayko	1.6	1	0.31	0	8%	0
WPG N. Pionk	1.6	0	0.42	0	8%	0
STL J. Snuggerud	1.5	1	0.40	0	15%	0
WPG M. Appleton	1.5	1	0.32	1	13%	0
STL J. Neighbours	1.4	2	0.43	1	21%	0
WPG M. Barron	1.4	0	0.24	1	12%	0
STL P. Broberg	1.4	0	0.30	0	7%	0
WPG A. Lowry	1.4	2	0.40	1	17%	1
WPG D. Samberg	1.3	3	0.26	0	5%	0
WPG V. Namestnikov	1.3	0	0.46	0	15%	0
STL C. Fowler	1.2	1	0.39	1	6%	0
STL A. Toropchenko	1.2	1	0.20	0	10%	0
WPG L. Schenn	1.1	1	0.14	1	3%	0
WPG J. Anderson-Dolan	1.1	2	0.18	1	9%	1
STL N. Walker	1.0	0	0.22	0	11%	0
WPG B. Tanev	1.0	1	0.25	0	12%	0
STL M. Joseph	1.0	1	0.22	0	8%	0
STL R. Faksa	1.0	0	0.19	0	8%	0
WPG D. DeMelo	1.0	1	0.28	0	5%	0
STL O. Sundqvist	0.9	1	0.26	1	10%	1
WPG L. Stanley	0.9	1	0.20	0	3%	0
WPG D. Gustafsson	0.8	1	0.17	0	6%	0
STL N. Leddy	0.8	0	0.20	0	3%	0
STL R. Suter	0.7	0	0.15	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.