WPG beat STL 2-1, and the chances backed it up: 2.66 expected goals to 1.60. M. Scheifele led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). M. Appleton had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. C. Hellebuyck stopped 21 of 22.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| WPG | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
- 1st 16:32WPGM. Scheifele0.15 xG
- 1st 19:58STLJ. SnuggerudPP0.10 xG
- 3rd 1:43WPGK. Connor0.18 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
STL 1.60 xGWPG 2.66 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
STL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Buchnevich | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:47 | 4:01 |
| J. Snuggerud | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 20:01 | 4:01 |
| R. Thomas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 23:13 | 4:08 |
| B. Schenn | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:27 | 3:47 |
| J. Kyrou | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:59 | 3:45 |
| J. Neighbours | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:29 | 3:51 |
| Z. Bolduc | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:36 | 4:02 |
| O. Sundqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:01 | 3:34 |
| N. Walker | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:07 | 0:00 |
| R. Faksa | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10:37 | 0:06 |
| A. Toropchenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:53 | 0:00 |
| C. Fowler | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:17 | 4:22 |
| J. Faulk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:50 | 3:29 |
| C. Parayko | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 19:59 | 0:00 |
| P. Broberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:24 | 0:14 |
| R. Suter | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:48 | 0:00 |
| T. Tucker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9:45 | 0:00 |
| N. Leddy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:34 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Binnington | 22 | 20 | 2 | .909 | 57:13 | Loss |
| J. Hofer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
WPG Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Scheifele | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +2 | 2 | 20:36 | 3:01 |
| K. Connor | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 21:31 | 2:59 |
| C. Perfetti | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:43 | 2:59 |
| A. Iafallo | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:54 | 3:00 |
| A. Lowry | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:02 | 0:00 |
| M. Appleton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:02 | 0:58 |
| B. Tanev | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14:56 | 0:00 |
| V. Namestnikov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:52 | 1:01 |
| N. Niederreiter | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:13 | 1:00 |
| M. Barron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:53 | 0:36 |
| J. Anderson-Dolan | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5:50 | 0:00 |
| D. Gustafsson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4:28 | 0:00 |
| D. DeMelo | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 21:37 | 0:00 |
| D. Samberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 24:30 | 0:26 |
| J. Morrissey | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:53 | 3:13 |
| N. Pionk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:40 | 0:47 |
| L. Schenn | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 17:27 | 0:00 |
| L. Stanley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10:07 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Hellebuyck | 22 | 21 | 1 | .955 | 59:54 | Win |
| E. Comrie | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | STL 2.6, WPG 3.1 | STL 1, WPG 2 |
| Total goals | 5.6 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | STL 23.9, WPG 26.9 | STL 22, WPG 22 |
| Win chance | WPG 59% | WPG won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG K. Connor | 3.3 | 2 | 1.03 | 1 | 37% | 1 |
| STL J. Kyrou | 2.6 | 2 | 0.64 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| WPG M. Scheifele | 2.2 | 2 | 0.96 | 2 | 34% | 1 |
| WPG J. Morrissey | 2.2 | 2 | 0.76 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| WPG C. Perfetti | 2.1 | 1 | 0.63 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| STL P. Buchnevich | 1.9 | 1 | 0.66 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| WPG N. Niederreiter | 1.9 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| WPG A. Iafallo | 1.9 | 0 | 0.49 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| STL R. Thomas | 1.9 | 3 | 0.83 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| STL Z. Bolduc | 1.8 | 3 | 0.43 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| STL J. Faulk | 1.7 | 2 | 0.39 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| STL B. Schenn | 1.7 | 2 | 0.50 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| STL C. Parayko | 1.6 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| WPG N. Pionk | 1.6 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| STL J. Snuggerud | 1.5 | 2 | 0.38 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| WPG M. Appleton | 1.5 | 4 | 0.33 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| STL J. Neighbours | 1.4 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| WPG D. Samberg | 1.4 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WPG A. Lowry | 1.4 | 3 | 0.41 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| STL P. Broberg | 1.4 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| WPG M. Barron | 1.3 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WPG V. Namestnikov | 1.3 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| STL C. Fowler | 1.2 | 2 | 0.40 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| STL A. Toropchenko | 1.2 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| WPG B. Tanev | 1.1 | 3 | 0.26 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| WPG L. Schenn | 1.1 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| WPG J. Anderson-Dolan | 1.0 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| STL N. Walker | 1.0 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| STL R. Faksa | 1.0 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| WPG D. DeMelo | 1.0 | 0 | 0.28 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| STL O. Sundqvist | 0.9 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| STL T. Tucker | 0.9 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WPG L. Stanley | 0.9 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| WPG D. Gustafsson | 0.8 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| STL R. Suter | 0.7 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| STL N. Leddy | 0.7 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.