Game Recap: STL 2, WPG 3, March 15, 2026

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Game Recap

STL2

FinalSun, Mar 15, 2026Every game that night

WPG3

WPG beat STL 3-2 despite fewer good chances: 2.81 expected goals to 3.60. STL outshot WPG 31 to 16. H. Fleury led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). D. Holloway had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. E. Comrie stopped 29 of 31.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
STL	0	0	2	2
WPG	2	0	1	3

1st 2:31WPGH. Fleury0.12 xG
1st 7:51WPGM. Scheifele0.14 xG
3rd 5:17STLD. Dvorsky0.11 xG
3rd 11:53WPGK. Connor0.27 xG
3rd 19:09STLD. Holloway0.70 xG

Team Stats

STLWPG

31Shots on goal16

3.60Expected goals2.81

60Shot attempts36

265v5 shots on goal10

0/1Power play0/3

13Hits26

6Blocked shots15

6Penalty minutes2

13Giveaways15

3Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

STL 3.60 xGWPG 2.81 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

STL31 on goal, 2 scored

WPG16 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Holloway	LW	1	0	1	6	2	0	+1	0	21:13	0:53
J. Snuggerud	RW	0	1	1	4	1	0	+1	0	19:53	0:53
P. Suter	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	+1	2	15:27	0:00
D. Dvorsky	RW	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	12:16	1:05
J. Berggren	RW	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	10:19	0:00
R. Thomas	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	22:18	0:55
P. Buchnevich	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-3	0	16:30	0:53
J. Kyrou	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-3	0	14:13	1:07
J. Neighbours	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	-2	0	13:24	1:07
O. Sundqvist	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	11:13	0:00
J. Finley	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11:03	0:00
A. Toropchenko	RW	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	10:47	0:00
L. Mailloux	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0	24:58	1:07
P. Broberg	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	24:42	0:53
C. Parayko	D	0	0	0	4	2	1	-1	0	22:19	0:00
C. Fowler	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	19:18	1:06
T. Lindstein	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	15:12	0:01
J. Holl	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	12:42	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Binnington	16	13	3	.813	56:13	Loss
J. Hofer	0	0	0	–	0:00

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Barron	C	0	2	2	0	0	2	+2	0	16:02	0:12
K. Connor	LW	1	0	1	1	2	0	+2	0	22:57	3:21
M. Scheifele	C	1	0	1	4	0	0	0	0	22:12	3:22
B. Lambert	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	9:08	2:27
A. Lowry	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-2	0	17:22	0:12
C. Perfetti	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	-2	0	16:53	2:59
A. Iafallo	LW	0	0	0	1	5	1	0	0	16:47	0:29
G. Vilardi	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	16:34	3:04
J. Toews	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	12:35	2:33
G. Nyquist	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	12:11	2:26
I. Rosen	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	11:24	2:24
C. Koepke	LW	0	0	0	2	5	0	+1	0	9:10	0:00
H. Fleury	D	1	1	2	3	2	0	+2	0	11:32	0:00
J. Morrissey	D	0	1	1	1	1	1	-1	0	24:54	3:46
D. Samberg	D	0	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	23:16	0:14
D. DeMelo	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	22:53	0:29
E. Salomonsson	D	0	0	0	1	5	1	0	2	20:25	2:02
J. Bryson	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+2	0	11:53	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
E. Comrie	31	29	2	.935	59:52	Win
C. Hellebuyck	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

STL

Line 1R. Thomas17:53D. Holloway17:17J. Snuggerud16:05

Line 2J. Kyrou12:08J. Neighbours11:05P. Buchnevich11:01

Line 3J. Berggren10:07D. Dvorsky9:41P. Suter11:32

Line 4A. Toropchenko8:50J. Finley9:07O. Sundqvist9:29

Pair 1P. Broberg17:12L. Mailloux17:32

Pair 2T. Lindstein15:11C. Parayko18:34

Pair 3J. Holl12:42C. Fowler14:59

WPG

Line 1M. Scheifele17:16K. Connor16:36A. Iafallo13:35

Line 2A. Lowry14:24C. Perfetti12:03G. Vilardi13:30

Line 3J. Toews9:54G. Nyquist9:37I. Rosen9:00

Line 4M. Barron12:42C. Koepke8:36B. Lambert6:41

Pair 1D. Samberg19:26E. Salomonsson16:28

Pair 2D. DeMelo19:24J. Morrissey18:39

Pair 3J. Bryson11:45H. Fleury10:49

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

BirthdayMark Scheifele WPG Turns 33 that day1 G, 4 SOG
HometownJoel Hofer STL Plays in his hometown0 saves on 0

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	STL 2.8, WPG 3.0	STL 2, WPG 3
Total goals	5.8	5
Shots on goal	STL 24.3, WPG 26.9	STL 31, WPG 16
Win chance	WPG 53%	WPG won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WPG K. Connor	3.2	1	1.11	1	38%	1
STL D. Holloway	2.4	6	0.74	1	25%	1
STL J. Kyrou	2.2	1	0.60	0	25%	0
WPG C. Perfetti	2.2	1	0.64	0	22%	0
WPG M. Scheifele	2.2	4	1.11	1	36%	1
STL J. Snuggerud	2.2	4	0.65	1	22%	0
WPG J. Morrissey	2.1	1	0.77	1	14%	0
STL P. Buchnevich	1.8	1	0.67	0	23%	0
WPG G. Vilardi	1.8	1	0.74	0	30%	0
STL R. Thomas	1.6	0	0.94	0	23%	0
STL P. Broberg	1.6	0	0.48	0	11%	0
STL L. Mailloux	1.5	2	0.26	1	10%	0
STL P. Suter	1.4	3	0.41	1	18%	0
WPG M. Barron	1.4	0	0.29	2	13%	0
WPG D. Samberg	1.4	0	0.28	0	4%	0
WPG A. Iafallo	1.4	1	0.38	0	17%	0
STL C. Parayko	1.4	4	0.33	0	9%	0
WPG E. Salomonsson	1.4	1	0.20	0	5%	0
WPG A. Lowry	1.3	0	0.39	0	16%	0
STL D. Dvorsky	1.2	2	0.27	1	14%	1
STL J. Berggren	1.2	1	0.41	1	17%	0
WPG D. DeMelo	1.2	1	0.29	0	5%	0
STL C. Fowler	1.2	3	0.44	0	7%	0
WPG J. Toews	1.2	0	0.35	0	13%	0
STL J. Neighbours	1.1	1	0.45	0	19%	0
WPG G. Nyquist	1.1	0	0.34	0	12%	0
WPG C. Koepke	1.0	2	0.21	0	10%	0
WPG I. Rosen	1.0	0	0.26	0	11%	0
STL A. Toropchenko	1.0	0	0.21	0	9%	0
WPG H. Fleury	0.9	3	0.14	2	3%	1
STL O. Sundqvist	0.7	0	0.25	0	9%	0
STL J. Finley	0.7	0	0.20	0	9%	0
STL J. Holl	0.7	1	0.16	0	3%	0
WPG B. Lambert	0.6	0	0.24	1	10%	0
WPG J. Bryson	0.4	0	0.13	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 16 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.