Game Recap: TBL 4, BOS 3, October 13, 2025

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Game Recap

TBL4

FinalMon, Oct 13, 2025Every game that night

BOS3

TBL beat BOS 4-3, and the chances backed it up: 3.54 expected goals to 1.98. BOS outshot TBL 33 to 23. A. Cirelli led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). Y. Gourde had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. J. Johansson stopped 30 of 33.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TBL	2	2	0	4
BOS	0	3	0	3

1st 1:09TBLA. Cirelli0.23 xG
1st 13:16TBLA. Cirelli0.14 xG
2nd 0:39TBLY. Gourde0.25 xG
2nd 1:09BOSC. Mittelstadt0.09 xG
2nd 3:37TBLP. Holmberg0.06 xG
2nd 5:31BOSJ. Harris0.06 xG
2nd 11:35BOSM. Geekie0.02 xG

Team Stats

TBLBOS

23Shots on goal33

3.54Expected goals1.98

54Shot attempts66

195v5 shots on goal22

0/2Power play0/5

21Hits31

14Blocked shots12

14Penalty minutes8

20Giveaways16

9Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TBL 3.54 xGBOS 1.98 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TBL23 on goal, 4 scored

BOS31 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TBL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Cirelli	C	2	0	2	2	2	1	+1	0	20:43	1:34
J. Guentzel	C	0	2	2	1	0	0	+1	0	18:59	1:58
G. Goncalves	C	0	2	2	0	1	1	+1	2	15:46	1:19
P. Holmberg	RW	1	1	2	2	1	0	+2	4	11:46	0:00
Y. Gourde	C	1	0	1	5	2	0	+1	0	15:34	0:02
O. Bjorkstrand	RW	0	1	1	1	1	0	+2	0	12:14	1:48
B. Hagel	LW	0	0	0	1	0	3	-1	0	22:01	1:34
N. Kucherov	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	19:24	1:56
B. Point	C	0	0	0	4	1	1	-1	2	18:03	2:00
M. Chaffee	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7:23	1:26
C. Geekie	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	6:12	0:00
C. Douglas	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	4:42	0:00
J. Moser	D	0	1	1	0	3	0	0	0	24:23	0:01
M. Crozier	D	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	14:11	0:13
V. Hedman	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	24:10	1:55
R. McDonagh	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	22:57	1:35
E. Cernak	D	0	0	0	1	3	4	0	2	19:10	0:04
E. Lilleberg	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	4	12:11	0:05

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Johansson	33	30	3	.909	59:38	Win
A. Vasilevskiy	0	0	0	–	0:00

BOS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
P. Zacha	C	0	2	2	1	1	1	+3	0	19:34	4:44
D. Pastrnak	RW	0	1	1	5	4	1	-1	0	23:17	7:05
M. Geekie	C	1	0	1	2	3	0	-1	0	20:42	5:14
V. Arvidsson	LW	0	1	1	4	0	0	+1	4	16:33	2:32
C. Mittelstadt	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	+2	0	15:15	2:27
E. Lindholm	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	-2	0	20:34	5:07
M. Eyssimont	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	-2	2	13:18	0:00
F. Minten	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	13:14	0:00
T. Jeannot	LW	0	0	0	0	4	0	-2	2	12:19	0:00
M. Khusnutdinov	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	10:29	2:53
S. Kuraly	C	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	9:26	0:00
M. Kastelic	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	9:20	0:00
J. Harris	D	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0	16:59	0:00
C. McAvoy	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	22:23	4:42
M. Lohrei	D	0	0	0	2	2	2	0	0	19:21	2:57
A. Peeke	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	18:37	0:00
N. Zadorov	D	0	0	0	0	7	2	0	0	17:41	0:00
H. Jokiharju	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	-1	0	16:35	0:34

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Korpisalo	23	19	4	.826	57:59	Loss
J. Swayman	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

TBL

Line 1N. Kucherov14:55B. Point14:34B. Hagel14:09

Line 2G. Goncalves14:05J. Guentzel12:31A. Cirelli12:33

Line 3Y. Gourde11:28P. Holmberg11:03O. Bjorkstrand10:04

Line 4C. Geekie6:12C. Douglas4:42M. Chaffee5:40

Pair 1J. Moser19:45V. Hedman16:17

Pair 2R. McDonagh14:47E. Cernak12:31

Pair 3M. Crozier13:13E. Lilleberg12:06

BOS

Line 1E. Lindholm12:31D. Pastrnak13:16M. Geekie12:40

Line 2V. Arvidsson12:36C. Mittelstadt12:43P. Zacha10:55

Line 3M. Eyssimont13:03F. Minten11:19T. Jeannot11:44

Line 4S. Kuraly7:37M. Kastelic7:03M. Khusnutdinov6:39

Pair 1N. Zadorov15:12H. Jokiharju15:00

Pair 2A. Peeke15:30J. Harris14:41

Pair 3C. McAvoy13:30M. Lohrei14:36

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamTanner Jeannot BOS Faces TBL, his team until Apr 20240 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TBL 3.1, BOS 2.9	TBL 4, BOS 3
Total goals	6.0	7
Shots on goal	TBL 26.4, BOS 26.2	TBL 23, BOS 33
Win chance	TBL 54%	TBL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BOS D. Pastrnak	3.7	5	1.16	1	40%	0
TBL N. Kucherov	3.1	1	1.41	0	33%	0
TBL J. Guentzel	3.1	1	1.02	2	37%	0
TBL B. Point	2.5	4	0.99	0	38%	0
TBL V. Hedman	2.2	2	0.81	0	13%	0
TBL B. Hagel	2.2	1	0.77	0	25%	0
BOS E. Lindholm	2.1	2	0.61	0	23%	0
BOS M. Geekie	2.0	2	0.73	1	28%	1
BOS V. Arvidsson	2.0	4	0.43	1	18%	0
BOS C. McAvoy	2.0	3	0.56	0	13%	0
BOS M. Eyssimont	1.9	3	0.25	0	11%	0
TBL A. Cirelli	1.8	2	0.59	2	22%	2
TBL O. Bjorkstrand	1.8	1	0.56	1	20%	0
BOS P. Zacha	1.5	1	0.61	2	19%	0
TBL Y. Gourde	1.4	5	0.46	1	14%	1
BOS N. Zadorov	1.4	0	0.31	0	10%	0
BOS F. Minten	1.4	0	0.25	0	14%	0
BOS S. Kuraly	1.3	1	0.25	0	12%	0
BOS C. Mittelstadt	1.3	1	0.51	1	17%	1
TBL M. Crozier	1.3	1	0.20	1	3%	0
BOS M. Lohrei	1.2	2	0.33	0	7%	0
BOS A. Peeke	1.2	1	0.21	0	4%	0
BOS M. Kastelic	1.2	0	0.23	0	11%	0
TBL G. Goncalves	1.2	0	0.43	2	15%	0
BOS H. Jokiharju	1.1	3	0.23	0	5%	0
TBL C. Geekie	1.1	1	0.24	0	12%	0
BOS T. Jeannot	1.0	0	0.23	0	12%	0
TBL R. McDonagh	1.0	0	0.34	0	4%	0
TBL P. Holmberg	1.0	2	0.25	2	10%	1
TBL E. Cernak	0.9	1	0.22	0	3%	0
TBL M. Chaffee	0.9	0	0.22	0	13%	0
TBL J. Moser	0.7	0	0.21	1	4%	0
BOS M. Khusnutdinov	0.7	1	0.22	0	10%	0
TBL E. Lilleberg	0.6	1	0.20	0	2%	0
BOS J. Harris	0.6	4	0.17	1	4%	1

Shots on goal: 18 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.