Game Recap: TBL 2, BOS 1, April 11, 2026

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Game Recap

TBL2

FinalSat, Apr 11, 2026Every game that night

BOS1

TBL beat BOS 2-1, with the chances close: 2.81 expected goals to 2.41. A. Vasilevskiy stopped 20 of 21.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TBL	0	0	2	2
BOS	0	1	0	1

2nd 10:47BOSM. Geekie0.13 xG
3rd 6:37TBLB. Hagel0.17 xG
3rd 18:25TBLE. Lilleberg0.46 xG

Team Stats

TBLBOS

24Shots on goal21

2.81Expected goals2.41

45Shot attempts62

235v5 shots on goal18

0/1Power play0/1

27Hits23

14Blocked shots13

4Penalty minutes4

20Giveaways16

8Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TBL 2.81 xGBOS 2.41 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TBL24 on goal, 2 scored

BOS21 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TBL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Point	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	19:21	2:00
B. Hagel	LW	1	0	1	4	0	0	+1	2	18:46	0:00
J. Guentzel	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	18:10	1:50
G. Goncalves	C	0	1	1	1	3	1	+1	0	14:04	0:00
N. Kucherov	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	20:21	1:48
A. Cirelli	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	0	19:15	0:12
N. Paul	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	13:58	0:00
Y. Gourde	C	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	13:42	0:00
O. Bjorkstrand	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	12:48	2:00
C. Geekie	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	9:47	0:00
S. Sabourin	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	9:33	0:00
C. Perry	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	9:10	0:00
E. Lilleberg	D	1	0	1	2	2	1	+1	0	21:03	0:00
R. McDonagh	D	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	0	19:20	0:10
J. Moser	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	22:29	0:00
C. D'Astous	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	+1	2	21:02	2:00
D. Carlile	D	0	0	0	2	5	2	+1	0	21:00	0:00
E. Cernak	D	0	0	0	0	3	2	-1	0	13:37	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Vasilevskiy	21	20	1	.952	59:57	Win
J. Johansson	0	0	0	–	0:00

BOS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Geekie	C	1	0	1	2	0	3	0	0	16:54	0:37
D. Pastrnak	RW	0	0	0	2	4	1	0	0	18:53	0:37
E. Lindholm	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	17:39	0:37
C. Mittelstadt	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	17:28	0:03
P. Zacha	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	17:11	0:37
V. Arvidsson	LW	0	0	0	4	1	1	-1	0	16:01	0:34
F. Minten	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	13:38	0:00
S. Kuraly	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:02	0:00
M. Khusnutdinov	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12:55	0:00
M. Kastelic	C	0	0	0	2	5	1	0	0	12:12	0:00
T. Jeannot	LW	0	0	0	0	6	0	0	0	11:25	0:00
M. Eyssimont	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	10:44	0:00
C. McAvoy	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	0	0	25:31	0:37
H. Lindholm	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	21:23	0:00
A. Peeke	D	0	0	0	1	3	2	-1	0	19:35	0:00
N. Zadorov	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	19:29	0:00
J. Aspirot	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	2	17:06	0:00
M. Lohrei	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	16:20	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Swayman	24	22	2	.917	58:34	Loss
J. Korpisalo	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

TBL

Line 1A. Cirelli16:48B. Hagel17:05N. Kucherov17:26

Line 2B. Point16:10J. Guentzel14:44G. Goncalves14:04

Line 3Y. Gourde13:39N. Paul13:58O. Bjorkstrand10:48

Line 4C. Perry9:10S. Sabourin9:33C. Geekie9:47

Pair 1E. Lilleberg20:56C. D'Astous18:59

Pair 2D. Carlile19:04J. Moser19:08

Pair 3R. McDonagh17:39E. Cernak13:37

BOS

Line 1C. Mittelstadt16:36P. Zacha15:45V. Arvidsson15:27

Line 2D. Pastrnak15:44M. Geekie15:28E. Lindholm14:46

Line 3S. Kuraly12:13M. Kastelic11:08T. Jeannot11:25

Line 4M. Eyssimont10:41M. Khusnutdinov11:39F. Minten11:51

Pair 1N. Zadorov18:37A. Peeke18:31

Pair 2C. McAvoy21:06J. Aspirot17:06

Pair 3H. Lindholm18:12M. Lohrei16:20

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamTanner Jeannot BOS Faces TBL, his team until Apr 20240 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TBL 3.5, BOS 3.1	TBL 2, BOS 1
Total goals	6.6	3
Shots on goal	TBL 29.0, BOS 26.9	TBL 24, BOS 21
Win chance	TBL 55%	TBL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BOS D. Pastrnak	3.3	2	1.27	0	40%	0
TBL N. Kucherov	3.2	2	1.55	0	36%	0
TBL J. Guentzel	3.0	1	1.06	1	38%	0
TBL B. Hagel	3.0	4	1.03	1	33%	1
BOS V. Arvidsson	2.3	4	0.68	0	24%	0
TBL B. Point	2.3	1	0.92	1	35%	0
BOS M. Geekie	2.0	2	0.70	1	29%	1
TBL A. Cirelli	1.8	2	0.63	0	22%	0
BOS C. McAvoy	1.8	0	0.67	1	13%	0
BOS E. Lindholm	1.8	1	0.61	0	22%	0
BOS M. Eyssimont	1.7	1	0.23	0	10%	0
BOS F. Minten	1.6	2	0.46	0	20%	0
BOS P. Zacha	1.6	2	0.66	0	21%	0
TBL O. Bjorkstrand	1.4	0	0.38	0	15%	0
BOS H. Lindholm	1.4	0	0.36	0	8%	0
TBL G. Goncalves	1.4	1	0.52	1	17%	0
TBL Y. Gourde	1.4	0	0.39	0	13%	0
TBL C. Perry	1.4	3	0.42	0	19%	0
BOS N. Zadorov	1.3	0	0.27	0	7%	0
TBL N. Paul	1.2	1	0.30	0	15%	0
BOS C. Mittelstadt	1.2	1	0.56	0	17%	0
TBL J. Moser	1.2	0	0.30	0	6%	0
BOS S. Kuraly	1.1	0	0.20	0	9%	0
BOS A. Peeke	1.1	1	0.19	0	5%	0
BOS M. Khusnutdinov	1.0	0	0.38	0	15%	0
BOS M. Lohrei	1.0	1	0.29	0	7%	0
TBL C. D'Astous	1.0	2	0.37	0	6%	0
BOS M. Kastelic	0.9	2	0.18	0	9%	0
TBL E. Cernak	0.9	0	0.20	0	3%	0
TBL C. Geekie	0.9	1	0.21	0	10%	0
TBL R. McDonagh	0.8	2	0.36	1	5%	0
TBL E. Lilleberg	0.8	2	0.24	1	4%	1
BOS T. Jeannot	0.8	0	0.21	0	9%	0
BOS J. Aspirot	0.8	2	0.21	0	5%	0
TBL D. Carlile	0.7	2	0.10	0	4%	0
TBL S. Sabourin	0.5	0	0.16	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 16 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.