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Game Recap
TBL2
COL3
COL beat TBL 3-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.40 expected goals to 1.87. COL outshot TBL 33 to 24. V. Olofsson led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). S. Wedgewood stopped 22 of 24.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| COL | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
- 1st 1:37TBLN. Kucherov0.01 xG
- 1st 13:51COLV. OlofssonPP0.08 xG
- 2nd 4:08COLV. Olofsson0.03 xG
- 2nd 5:21COLR. Colton0.09 xG
- 3rd 3:32TBLB. Point0.07 xG
Team Stats
TBLCOL
24Shots on goal33
1.87Expected goals3.40
59Shot attempts59
205v5 shots on goal22
0/3Power play1/4
23Hits17
14Blocked shots15
11Penalty minutes11
14Giveaways11
4Takeaways7
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
TBL 1.87 xGCOL 3.40 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Kucherov | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:36 | 3:09 |
| B. Point | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:55 | 3:08 |
| B. Hagel | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 22:21 | 3:14 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:22 | 2:43 |
| Y. Gourde | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:54 | 0:03 |
| J. Guentzel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:18 | 3:04 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 2 | 15:31 | 0:01 |
| O. Bjorkstrand | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:08 | 2:38 |
| D. James | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:38 | 2:46 |
| G. Goncalves | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:32 | 2:50 |
| P. Holmberg | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:13 | 0:06 |
| V. Hedman | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 19:04 | 3:26 |
| C. D'Astous | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 16:09 | 2:46 |
| R. McDonagh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20:30 | 0:00 |
| J. Moser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:00 | 0:00 |
| E. Cernak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 18:57 | 0:06 |
| M. Crozier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:11 | 0:00 |
| E. Lilleberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:31 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Vasilevskiy | 33 | 30 | 3 | .909 | 57:00 | Loss |
| J. Johansson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
COL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V. Olofsson | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 14:07 | 4:26 |
| N. MacKinnon | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:00 | 5:21 |
| M. Necas | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:02 | 4:38 |
| B. Nelson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 17:30 | 1:50 |
| J. Drury | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 15:37 | 0:00 |
| G. Landeskog | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 5 | 12:33 | 1:44 |
| R. Colton | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:11 | 0:28 |
| A. Lehkonen | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:17 | 1:47 |
| V. Nichushkin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:41 | 4:27 |
| P. Kelly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:53 | 0:00 |
| Z. Bardakov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5:33 | 0:00 |
| T. Nielsen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5:25 | 0:00 |
| S. Malinski | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:14 | 0:00 |
| C. Makar | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 27:45 | 5:21 |
| D. Toews | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 23:58 | 0:44 |
| B. Burns | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 21:30 | 0:19 |
| J. Manson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 19:14 | 0:20 |
| J. Ahcan | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7:30 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Wedgewood | 24 | 22 | 2 | .917 | 60:00 | Win |
| M. Blackwood | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
TBL
Line 1Y. Gourde13:40P. Holmberg13:06Z. Girgensons13:08
Line 2N. Kucherov14:04B. Hagel14:16B. Point13:22
Line 3J. Guentzel10:46A. Cirelli10:22
Line 4O. Bjorkstrand10:47G. Goncalves9:51D. James10:11
Pair 1R. McDonagh15:27E. Cernak14:19
Pair 3C. D'Astous12:35M. Crozier10:09
COL
Line 1N. MacKinnon15:48M. Necas15:44A. Lehkonen16:18
Line 2B. Nelson13:34V. Nichushkin12:06R. Colton11:36
Line 3V. Olofsson9:34J. Drury9:52G. Landeskog10:06
Line 4P. Kelly8:07T. Nielsen5:25Z. Bardakov5:33
Pair 3S. Malinski13:33J. Ahcan7:30
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TBL 2.9, COL 3.4 | TBL 2, COL 3 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | TBL 24.3, COL 31.8 | TBL 24, COL 33 |
| Win chance | COL 59% | COL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL N. MacKinnon | 4.1 | 6 | 1.34 | 1 | 39% | 0 |
| COL C. Makar | 3.1 | 1 | 1.02 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| TBL N. Kucherov | 2.9 | 3 | 1.30 | 1 | 32% | 1 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 2.7 | 0 | 0.89 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| COL M. Necas | 2.6 | 3 | 0.93 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| COL V. Nichushkin | 2.6 | 4 | 0.76 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| TBL B. Hagel | 2.6 | 2 | 0.87 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| COL A. Lehkonen | 2.3 | 1 | 0.67 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.2 | 4 | 0.86 | 1 | 35% | 1 |
| COL B. Nelson | 2.2 | 2 | 0.71 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| COL B. Burns | 2.1 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| COL V. Olofsson | 2.1 | 2 | 0.51 | 2 | 22% | 2 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 1.8 | 1 | 0.62 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| COL G. Landeskog | 1.7 | 2 | 0.58 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| TBL V. Hedman | 1.7 | 2 | 0.68 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| COL J. Manson | 1.7 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| COL R. Colton | 1.7 | 3 | 0.38 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| COL S. Malinski | 1.6 | 0 | 0.22 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| COL D. Toews | 1.6 | 3 | 0.50 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| TBL O. Bjorkstrand | 1.5 | 2 | 0.46 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| TBL D. James | 1.5 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| COL J. Drury | 1.5 | 2 | 0.31 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| TBL Y. Gourde | 1.4 | 3 | 0.41 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| COL P. Kelly | 1.2 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 1.1 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TBL P. Holmberg | 1.0 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 0.9 | 2 | 0.33 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL M. Crozier | 0.9 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| TBL J. Moser | 0.9 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 0.8 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 0.8 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| TBL C. D'Astous | 0.8 | 1 | 0.21 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| COL Z. Bardakov | 0.7 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| COL J. Ahcan | 0.7 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL E. Lilleberg | 0.6 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 1% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.