Game Recap: TBL 3, MIN 5, November 1, 2024

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

TBL3

FinalFri, Nov 1, 2024Every game that night

MIN5

MIN beat TBL 5-3, and the chances backed it up: 4.07 expected goals to 2.21. TBL outshot MIN 30 to 22. K. Kaprizov led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). N. Kucherov had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 2.9. F. Gustavsson stopped 27 of 30.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TBL	1	0	2	3
MIN	0	1	4	5

1st 19:15TBLB. PointPP0.39 xG
2nd 0:47MINJ. Eriksson Ek0.06 xG
3rd 2:41MINB. Faber0.04 xG
3rd 6:23TBLJ. GuentzelPP0.07 xG
3rd 14:37MINK. Kaprizov0.08 xG
3rd 16:57MINM. BoldyEN0.70 xG
3rd 17:34TBLN. Paul0.33 xG
3rd 19:31MINK. KaprizovEN0.67 xG

Team Stats

TBLMIN

30Shots on goal22

2.21Expected goals4.07

57Shot attempts53

195v5 shots on goal16

2/4Power play0/2

11Hits22

10Blocked shots18

7Penalty minutes11

7Giveaways14

3Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TBL 2.21 xGMIN 4.07 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TBL30 on goal, 3 scored

MIN22 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TBL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Point	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	-1	0	23:10	4:31
N. Kucherov	RW	0	1	1	8	0	1	-3	0	22:41	4:09
J. Guentzel	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	-2	0	22:39	4:10
B. Hagel	LW	0	1	1	4	0	0	-3	0	22:25	4:05
N. Paul	LW	1	0	1	1	0	0	-2	0	13:07	2:15
A. Cirelli	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	19:47	2:35
C. Geekie	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	13:22	2:36
C. Atkinson	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	10:32	2:37
L. Glendening	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	10:27	0:00
Z. Girgensons	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	9:18	0:00
M. Chaffee	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	9:17	0:00
M. Eyssimont	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	5	8:41	0:00
V. Hedman	D	0	2	2	3	0	2	-2	0	24:58	3:47
E. Cernak	D	0	1	1	3	0	0	-1	0	20:57	0:06
R. McDonagh	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	-1	0	19:09	0:06
J. Moser	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	21:54	2:53
N. Perbix	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	0	13:32	0:00
E. Lilleberg	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	13:01	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Vasilevskiy	20	17	3	.850	57:03	Loss
J. Johansson	0	0	0	–	0:00

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Kaprizov	LW	2	1	3	2	0	0	+4	2	23:01	2:33
M. Zuccarello	RW	0	2	2	1	0	1	+2	2	16:34	2:34
J. Eriksson Ek	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	+2	0	18:14	2:36
M. Boldy	LW	1	0	1	3	0	1	+1	0	16:58	2:42
M. Rossi	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	16:34	1:24
F. Gaudreau	C	0	1	1	1	1	2	0	0	15:50	1:11
J. Lauko	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	+2	5	9:29	0:00
M. Johansson	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	13:26	1:26
M. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	0	9	1	-1	0	12:44	0:00
M. Khusnutdinov	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	+1	0	11:44	0:00
Y. Trenin	C	0	0	0	3	4	1	+1	0	11:28	0:00
R. Hartman	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	10:46	1:27
B. Faber	D	1	0	1	1	1	0	+3	0	25:07	2:44
J. Middleton	D	0	1	1	2	2	4	+1	0	23:21	0:00
J. Brodin	D	0	0	0	1	0	5	+1	0	24:15	0:07
J. Spurgeon	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	2	18:50	1:16
D. Chisholm	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	12:52	0:00
Z. Bogosian	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	12:01	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Gustavsson	30	27	3	.900	60:00	Win
M. Fleury	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamZach Bogosian MIN Faces TBL, his team until Nov 20231 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TBL 3.2, MIN 3.4	TBL 3, MIN 5
Total goals	6.5	8
Shots on goal	TBL 27.2, MIN 30.6	TBL 30, MIN 22
Win chance	MIN 53%	MIN won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MIN K. Kaprizov	3.9	2	1.44	3	47%	2
MIN M. Boldy	3.3	3	0.99	1	33%	1
MIN J. Ek	3.1	1	0.81	1	29%	1
TBL N. Kucherov	2.9	8	1.37	1	32%	0
TBL J. Guentzel	2.9	2	0.92	1	32%	1
MIN M. Zuccarello	2.5	1	0.94	2	24%	0
TBL B. Point	2.4	3	0.98	1	37%	1
MIN R. Hartman	2.4	1	0.65	0	25%	0
TBL V. Hedman	2.3	3	0.81	2	12%	0
TBL B. Hagel	2.1	4	0.84	1	28%	0
MIN M. Rossi	1.9	2	0.51	1	21%	0
MIN J. Brodin	1.7	1	0.36	0	7%	0
TBL M. Eyssimont	1.7	1	0.26	0	10%	0
TBL N. Paul	1.6	1	0.46	1	19%	1
MIN B. Faber	1.6	1	0.55	1	9%	1
MIN F. Gaudreau	1.6	1	0.36	1	16%	0
TBL A. Cirelli	1.5	0	0.57	0	19%	0
MIN J. Spurgeon	1.5	1	0.44	0	10%	0
MIN M. Johansson	1.4	1	0.43	0	16%	0
TBL C. Atkinson	1.3	0	0.26	0	12%	0
MIN Y. Trenin	1.3	3	0.25	0	15%	0
MIN Z. Bogosian	1.2	1	0.21	0	4%	0
TBL R. McDonagh	1.1	0	0.33	1	4%	0
MIN J. Middleton	1.1	2	0.31	1	7%	0
TBL J. Moser	1.1	1	0.36	0	7%	0
TBL C. Geekie	1.1	2	0.31	0	14%	0
TBL Z. Girgensons	1.0	1	0.18	0	10%	0
MIN M. Foligno	0.9	0	0.36	0	16%	0
MIN J. Lauko	0.9	0	0.24	1	10%	0
TBL N. Perbix	0.9	0	0.28	0	4%	0
TBL M. Chaffee	0.9	0	0.29	0	14%	0
TBL E. Cernak	0.8	3	0.21	1	3%	0
MIN D. Chisholm	0.8	1	0.22	0	6%	0
TBL E. Lilleberg	0.8	1	0.14	0	2%	0
TBL L. Glendening	0.7	0	0.11	0	8%	0
MIN M. Khusnutdinov	0.5	0	0.26	0	9%	0

Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.