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Game Recap
TBL5
NSH2
TBL beat NSH 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 6.05 expected goals to 2.11. TBL outshot NSH 32 to 20. Z. Girgensons led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). A. Vasilevskiy stopped 18 of 20.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 |
| NSH | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
- 1st 10:31TBLZ. Girgensons0.21 xG
- 2nd 15:37TBLB. Hagel0.41 xG
- 3rd 5:05NSHL. EvangelistaPP0.27 xG
- 3rd 7:58TBLC. D'Astous0.09 xG
- 3rd 17:54NSHF. Forsberg0.11 xG
- 3rd 19:07TBLN. KucherovEN0.95 xG
- 3rd 19:33TBLZ. Girgensons0.23 xG
Team Stats
TBLNSH
32Shots on goal20
6.05Expected goals2.11
50Shot attempts42
235v5 shots on goal5
0/4Power play1/3
16Hits24
15Blocked shots5
10Penalty minutes10
10Giveaways14
3Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
TBL 6.05 xGNSH 2.11 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Hagel | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 23:55 | 4:12 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 21:30 | 2:41 |
| N. Kucherov | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 19:57 | 4:46 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:14 | 0:00 |
| P. Holmberg | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 11:38 | 0:25 |
| B. Point | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 17:30 | 4:36 |
| Y. Gourde | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 14:32 | 1:06 |
| J. Guentzel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:13 | 4:46 |
| D. James | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 12:32 | 2:49 |
| O. Bjorkstrand | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:48 | 3:15 |
| G. Goncalves | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 9:22 | 2:46 |
| C. Douglas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4:37 | 0:00 |
| E. Cernak | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 18:26 | 0:37 |
| C. D'Astous | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 2 | 17:11 | 3:01 |
| R. McDonagh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 21:51 | 0:33 |
| V. Hedman | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:14 | 4:27 |
| J. Moser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 18:15 | 0:00 |
| E. Lilleberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:06 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Vasilevskiy | 20 | 18 | 2 | .900 | 59:49 | Win |
| J. Johansson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Haula | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 14:04 | 1:58 |
| L. Evangelista | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:27 | 1:56 |
| F. Forsberg | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:08 | 3:22 |
| R. O'Reilly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:19 | 3:44 |
| S. Stamkos | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:23 | 3:24 |
| J. Marchessault | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:22 | 3:21 |
| M. McCarron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:30 | 0:00 |
| M. Bunting | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:17 | 1:27 |
| C. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 14:03 | 0:00 |
| M. Wood | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:53 | 1:36 |
| T. Jost | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 12:13 | 0:00 |
| O. Wiesblatt | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:28 | 0:00 |
| B. Skjei | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 26:55 | 2:37 |
| N. Perbix | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 24:57 | 0:00 |
| N. Hague | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:12 | 0:23 |
| J. Barron | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 18:14 | 1:22 |
| S. Stastney | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 2 | 16:29 | 0:00 |
| A. Wilsby | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5:36 | 0:15 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Saros | 31 | 27 | 4 | .871 | 57:30 | Loss |
| J. Annunen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
TBL
Line 1A. Cirelli13:58B. Hagel14:27N. Kucherov14:22
Line 2Y. Gourde11:22P. Holmberg11:13Z. Girgensons11:13
Line 3J. Guentzel11:38B. Point12:35
Line 4G. Goncalves6:36D. James8:58O. Bjorkstrand7:49
Pair 1R. McDonagh16:21E. Cernak14:24
Pair 2E. Lilleberg14:29C. D'Astous13:54
NSH
Line 1R. O'Reilly14:22F. Forsberg12:59M. Wood11:15
Line 2S. Stamkos11:08J. Marchessault11:30T. Jost8:52
Line 3C. Smith9:46M. McCarron10:30O. Wiesblatt9:28
Line 4M. Bunting10:46L. Evangelista9:41E. Haula8:21
Pair 2S. Stastney13:42J. Barron13:51
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TBL 3.3, NSH 2.9 | TBL 5, NSH 2 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | TBL 26.4, NSH 28.9 | TBL 32, NSH 20 |
| Win chance | TBL 55% | TBL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH F. Forsberg | 3.3 | 1 | 0.94 | 1 | 35% | 1 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 3.1 | 1 | 1.11 | 0 | 38% | 0 |
| TBL N. Kucherov | 3.1 | 4 | 1.54 | 2 | 34% | 1 |
| NSH J. Marchessault | 2.6 | 3 | 0.74 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| TBL B. Hagel | 2.4 | 4 | 0.89 | 2 | 27% | 1 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.3 | 1 | 1.01 | 1 | 37% | 0 |
| NSH S. Stamkos | 2.2 | 3 | 0.75 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| TBL V. Hedman | 2.1 | 2 | 0.85 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NSH R. O'Reilly | 2.0 | 0 | 0.73 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| NSH B. Skjei | 2.0 | 3 | 0.44 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 1.9 | 1 | 0.70 | 2 | 25% | 0 |
| NSH L. Evangelista | 1.8 | 2 | 0.43 | 2 | 15% | 1 |
| TBL O. Bjorkstrand | 1.8 | 1 | 0.59 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| NSH M. Bunting | 1.7 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| NSH E. Haula | 1.6 | 3 | 0.39 | 2 | 17% | 0 |
| NSH A. Wilsby | 1.4 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NSH T. Jost | 1.4 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NSH M. Wood | 1.4 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| TBL Y. Gourde | 1.4 | 1 | 0.46 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| NSH M. McCarron | 1.3 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NSH N. Perbix | 1.2 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NSH C. Smith | 1.2 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NSH N. Hague | 1.1 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NSH J. Barron | 1.0 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 1.0 | 2 | 0.16 | 2 | 9% | 2 |
| NSH O. Wiesblatt | 1.0 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 1.0 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| TBL P. Holmberg | 1.0 | 3 | 0.28 | 2 | 10% | 0 |
| TBL J. Moser | 1.0 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 0.9 | 1 | 0.24 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 0.9 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NSH S. Stastney | 0.7 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL C. Douglas | 0.5 | 1 | 0.08 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL E. Lilleberg | 0.5 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.