Game Recap: TBL 1, NYR 4, October 13, 2026

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Game Recap

TBL1

FinalTue, Oct 13, 2026Every game that night

NYR4

NYR beat TBL 4-1, with the chances close: 3.28 expected goals to 2.55. A. Lafrenière led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). B. Point had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. D. Garand stopped 25 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TBL	1	0	0	1
NYR	2	1	1	4

1st 1:02NYRA. Lafrenière0.23 xG
1st 12:47NYRA. Lafrenière0.18 xG
1st 17:26TBLZ. Girgensons0.15 xG
2nd 18:26NYRW. Cuylle0.07 xG
3rd 17:16NYRM. ZibanejadEN0.55 xG

Team Stats

TBLNYR

26Shots on goal23

2.55Expected goals3.28

57Shot attempts43

185v5 shots on goal14

0/4Power play0/4

22Hits37

12Blocked shots14

13Penalty minutes13

17Giveaways14

2Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TBL 2.55 xGNYR 3.28 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TBL26 on goal, 1 scored

NYR23 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TBL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
Z. Girgensons	C	1	0	1	2	2	0	+1	0	15:02	0:00
P. Holmberg	RW	0	1	1	3	0	1	+1	0	13:42	0:50
N. Kucherov	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	23:15	5:21
B. Hagel	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-3	0	20:57	5:08
B. Point	C	0	0	0	5	0	0	-1	0	20:12	5:01
J. Guentzel	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-3	0	18:44	5:19
G. Goncalves	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	16:20	1:09
A. Cirelli	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-3	2	15:30	2:50
I. Mikheyev	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	13:50	0:00
C. Geekie	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	13:17	1:08
J. Viel	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	7	9:09	0:22
V. Hedman	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	-1	0	13:16	0:00
J. Carlson	D	0	0	0	3	1	1	-1	2	19:56	5:09
J. Moser	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	19:45	0:09
M. Crozier	D	0	0	0	1	4	0	-2	0	18:19	0:09
E. Cernak	D	0	0	0	1	2	4	0	2	17:02	0:19
C. D'Astous	D	0	0	0	2	3	1	-1	0	14:01	1:05
R. McDonagh	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	12:17	0:18

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Vasilevskiy	22	19	3	.864	57:26	Loss
M. Sogaard	0	0	0	–	0:00

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Lafrenière	LW	2	0	2	4	2	0	+2	0	19:23	5:29
T. Kartye	LW	0	2	2	1	2	1	+2	2	16:21	0:00
M. Zibanejad	C	1	0	1	3	3	2	0	0	23:01	5:17
J. Miller	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	+3	0	20:19	5:23
W. Cuylle	LW	1	0	1	4	11	0	+1	0	16:59	1:14
G. Perreault	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	19:56	3:27
N. Laba	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	+1	0	17:45	0:30
P. Dorofeyev	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	15:56	2:27
E. Tolvanen	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	14:20	0:32
O. Bjorkstrand	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	7:35	1:05
M. Rempe	C	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	5	3:43	0:00
C. Beaudoin	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3:29	0:00
A. Fox	D	0	2	2	1	1	4	+2	2	22:22	5:22
M. Pettersson	D	0	2	2	1	1	2	+3	0	21:44	0:03
S. Durzi	D	0	1	1	0	2	0	+2	2	21:10	1:09
V. Gavrikov	D	0	0	0	0	2	3	+1	0	20:28	0:37
B. Schneider	D	0	0	0	1	4	0	-1	2	15:49	0:00
A. Smits	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	11:55	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Garand	26	25	1	.962	59:45	Win
S. Martin	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

TBL

Line 1Z. Girgensons12:50I. Mikheyev12:02P. Holmberg12:18

Line 2N. Kucherov16:57B. Point14:14G. Goncalves13:27

Line 3J. Viel8:36C. Geekie12:09J. Guentzel11:19

Line 4A. Cirelli7:37B. Hagel11:10

Pair 1J. Carlson13:55J. Moser16:51

Pair 2M. Crozier13:51C. D'Astous11:40

Pair 3R. McDonagh9:22E. Cernak14:40

NYR

Line 1M. Zibanejad15:37G. Perreault15:24P. Dorofeyev13:29

Line 2J. Miller12:49A. Lafrenière13:29T. Kartye13:15

Line 3W. Cuylle11:31N. Laba13:26E. Tolvanen11:05

Line 4O. Bjorkstrand6:30C. Beaudoin3:29M. Rempe3:43

Pair 1M. Pettersson16:57S. Durzi17:38

Pair 2V. Gavrikov15:35A. Fox14:22

Pair 3B. Schneider12:29A. Smits11:02

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

8 of 23 overs hit (35%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
TBL B. Hagel	2.5	-150	+136	1	Under
TBL B. Point	2.5	+132	-150	5	Over
TBL J. Carlson	2.5	+132	-160	3	Over
TBL J. Guentzel	2.5	-108	-110	1	Under
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.5	+115	-135	3	Over
TBL N. Kucherov	2.5	-130	+105	2	Under
NYR P. Dorofeyev	2.5	-120	-105	2	Under
TBL A. Cirelli	1.5	-120	-105	1	Under
NYR A. Fox	1.5	+102	-130	1	Under
NYR A. Lafrenière	1.5	-155	+140	4	Over
TBL E. Cernak	1.5	+130	-175	1	Under
NYR E. Tolvanen	1.5	-118	+100	1	Under
TBL G. Goncalves	1.5	+130	-170	1	Under
NYR G. Perreault	1.5	+110	-125	2	Over
TBL I. Mikheyev	1.5	+105	-120	0	Under
NYR J. Miller	1.5	-125	+110	1	Under
TBL M. Crozier	1.5	+110	-160	1	Under
NYR O. Bjorkstrand	1.5	+105	-145	0	Under
TBL P. Holmberg	1.5	+125	-165	3	Over
NYR T. Kartye	1.5	+125	-170	1	Under
TBL V. Hedman	1.5	+125	-170	1	Under
NYR W. Cuylle	1.5	-120	+105	4	Over
TBL Z. Girgensons	1.5	+100	-135	2	Over

4 of 34 overs hit (12%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
TBL A. Cirelli	0.5	+330	-475	0	Under
NYR A. Fox	0.5	+650	-1200	0	Under
NYR A. Lafrenière	0.5	+260	-285	2	Over
TBL B. Hagel	0.5	+170	-220	0	Under
TBL B. Point	0.5	+200	-240	0	Under
NYR B. Schneider	0.5	+2200	-3500	0	Under
TBL C. D'Astous	0.5	+950	-2500	0	Under
TBL C. Geekie	0.5	+750	-900	0	Under
TBL E. Cernak	0.5	+2000	-5000	0	Under
NYR E. Tolvanen	0.5	+550	-750	0	Under
TBL G. Goncalves	0.5	+430	-600	0	Under
NYR G. Perreault	0.5	+400	-650	0	Under
TBL I. Mikheyev	0.5	+550	-750	0	Under
TBL J. Carlson	0.5	+440	-700	0	Under
TBL J. Guentzel	0.5	+172	-220	0	Under
NYR J. Miller	0.5	+290	-390	0	Under
TBL J. Moser	0.5	+1100	-2800	0	Under
TBL J. Viel	0.5	+850	-1400	0	Under
TBL M. Crozier	0.5	+1900	-2800	0	Under
NYR M. Pettersson	0.5	+2200	-2800	0	Under
NYR M. Rempe	0.5	+1700	-2800	0	Under
NYR M. Zibanejad	0.5	+250	-285	1	Over
TBL N. Kucherov	0.5	+155	-200	0	Under
NYR N. Laba	0.5	+800	-1400	0	Under
NYR O. Bjorkstrand	0.5	+600	-1000	0	Under
NYR P. Dorofeyev	0.5	+200	-250	0	Under
TBL P. Holmberg	0.5	+470	-700	0	Under
TBL R. McDonagh	0.5	+1800	–	0	Under
NYR S. Durzi	0.5	+1050	-1600	0	Under
NYR T. Kartye	0.5	+550	-1000	0	Under
NYR V. Gavrikov	0.5	+1500	-2000	0	Under
TBL V. Hedman	0.5	+875	-2800	0	Under
NYR W. Cuylle	0.5	+420	-600	1	Over
TBL Z. Girgensons	0.5	+750	-2500	1	Over

7 of 32 overs hit (22%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
TBL A. Cirelli	0.5	+255	-295	0	Under
NYR A. Fox	0.5	+105	-120	2	Over
NYR A. Lafrenière	0.5	+210	-235	0	Under
TBL B. Hagel	0.5	+144	-155	0	Under
TBL B. Point	0.5	+135	-165	0	Under
NYR B. Schneider	0.5	+333	-650	0	Under
TBL C. D'Astous	0.5	+300	-550	0	Under
TBL C. Geekie	0.5	+300	-550	0	Under
TBL E. Cernak	0.5	+475	-500	0	Under
NYR E. Tolvanen	0.5	+370	-450	0	Under
TBL G. Goncalves	0.5	+245	-340	0	Under
NYR G. Perreault	0.5	+340	-450	0	Under
TBL I. Mikheyev	0.5	+400	-525	0	Under
TBL J. Carlson	0.5	+106	-135	0	Under
TBL J. Guentzel	0.5	+125	-140	0	Under
NYR J. Miller	0.5	+152	-155	1	Over
TBL J. Moser	0.5	+300	-350	0	Under
TBL M. Crozier	0.5	+240	-375	0	Under
NYR M. Pettersson	0.5	+320	-450	2	Over
NYR M. Zibanejad	0.5	+118	-155	0	Under
TBL N. Kucherov	0.5	-180	+145	0	Under
NYR N. Laba	0.5	+370	-550	0	Under
NYR O. Bjorkstrand	0.5	+275	-450	0	Under
NYR P. Dorofeyev	0.5	+220	-275	0	Under
TBL P. Holmberg	0.5	+330	-400	1	Over
TBL R. McDonagh	0.5	+245	-295	0	Under
NYR S. Durzi	0.5	+295	-325	1	Over
NYR T. Kartye	0.5	+325	-360	2	Over
NYR V. Gavrikov	0.5	+285	-400	0	Under
TBL V. Hedman	0.5	+280	-325	1	Over
NYR W. Cuylle	0.5	+320	-450	0	Under
TBL Z. Girgensons	0.5	+370	-500	0	Under

11 of 32 overs hit (34%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
TBL N. Kucherov	1.5	+140	-160	0	Under
TBL A. Cirelli	0.5	+130	-155	0	Under
NYR A. Fox	0.5	-120	+100	2	Over
NYR A. Lafrenière	0.5	-102	-110	2	Over
TBL B. Hagel	0.5	-174	+160	0	Under
TBL B. Point	0.5	-160	+140	0	Under
NYR B. Schneider	0.5	+290	-500	0	Under
TBL C. D'Astous	0.5	+240	-375	0	Under
TBL C. Geekie	0.5	+195	-285	0	Under
TBL E. Cernak	0.5	+380	-550	0	Under
NYR E. Tolvanen	0.5	+205	-220	0	Under
TBL G. Goncalves	0.5	+145	-180	0	Under
NYR G. Perreault	0.5	+168	-185	0	Under
TBL I. Mikheyev	0.5	+220	-220	0	Under
TBL J. Carlson	0.5	-125	+105	0	Under
TBL J. Guentzel	0.5	-180	+145	0	Under
NYR J. Miller	0.5	-120	+110	1	Over
TBL J. Moser	0.5	+195	-250	0	Under
TBL M. Crozier	0.5	+180	-250	0	Under
NYR M. Pettersson	0.5	+280	-375	2	Over
NYR M. Zibanejad	0.5	-145	+125	1	Over
NYR N. Laba	0.5	+220	-290	0	Under
NYR O. Bjorkstrand	0.5	+170	-235	0	Under
NYR P. Dorofeyev	0.5	-110	+100	0	Under
TBL P. Holmberg	0.5	+170	-220	1	Over
TBL R. McDonagh	0.5	+210	-250	0	Under
NYR S. Durzi	0.5	+225	-260	1	Over
NYR T. Kartye	0.5	+200	-225	2	Over
NYR V. Gavrikov	0.5	+240	-280	0	Under
TBL V. Hedman	0.5	+190	-225	1	Over
NYR W. Cuylle	0.5	+165	-210	1	Over
TBL Z. Girgensons	0.5	+230	-220	1	Over

0 of 18 overs hit (0%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	Result
TBL A. Cirelli	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
NYR A. Fox	0.5	+165	-190	Under
NYR A. Lafrenière	0.5	+280	-375	Under
TBL B. Hagel	0.5	+195	-240	Under
TBL B. Point	0.5	+200	-280	Under
TBL C. Geekie	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
NYR E. Tolvanen	0.5	+450	-1200	Under
TBL G. Goncalves	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
NYR G. Perreault	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
TBL J. Carlson	0.5	+135	-160	Under
TBL J. Guentzel	0.5	+170	-190	Under
NYR J. Miller	0.5	+230	-240	Under
NYR M. Zibanejad	0.5	+225	-275	Under
TBL N. Kucherov	0.5	+125	-125	Under
NYR O. Bjorkstrand	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
NYR P. Dorofeyev	0.5	+210	-290	Under
NYR S. Durzi	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
NYR W. Cuylle	0.5	+500	-1600	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
NYR D. Garand	24.5	-122	-105	25	Over
TBL A. Vasilevskiy	23.5	-105	-125	19	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
NYR A. Fox	1.5	-135	-105	4	Over
TBL R. McDonagh	1.5	-145	+105	0	Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamOliver Bjorkstrand NYR Faces TBL, his team until May 20260 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TBL 3.1, NYR 2.7	TBL 1, NYR 4
Total goals	5.8	5
Shots on goal	TBL 27.4, NYR 23.6	TBL 26, NYR 23
Win chance	TBL 58%	NYR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TBL B. Hagel	3.2	1	1.14	0	37%	0
TBL N. Kucherov	3.0	2	1.51	0	36%	0
TBL J. Guentzel	2.7	1	1.05	0	37%	0
NYR P. Dorofeyev	2.7	2	0.67	0	31%	0
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.3	3	0.87	1	29%	1
TBL B. Point	2.1	5	0.92	0	35%	0
TBL J. Carlson	2.0	3	0.58	0	11%	0
NYR A. Lafrenière	1.9	4	0.69	2	25%	2
NYR J. Miller	1.8	1	0.81	1	26%	0
NYR W. Cuylle	1.7	4	0.42	1	19%	1
TBL A. Cirelli	1.7	1	0.65	0	24%	0
NYR A. Fox	1.5	1	0.78	2	13%	0
TBL M. Crozier	1.4	1	0.22	0	3%	0
TBL I. Mikheyev	1.4	0	0.43	0	19%	0
NYR G. Perreault	1.4	2	0.46	0	19%	0
NYR E. Tolvanen	1.4	1	0.33	0	15%	0
TBL V. Hedman	1.3	1	0.37	1	6%	0
NYR V. Gavrikov	1.3	0	0.33	0	8%	0
TBL P. Holmberg	1.3	3	0.33	1	14%	0
NYR T. Kartye	1.2	1	0.41	2	17%	0
TBL G. Goncalves	1.2	1	0.47	0	16%	0
NYR S. Durzi	1.2	0	0.34	1	7%	0
NYR O. Bjorkstrand	1.1	0	0.28	0	12%	0
TBL J. Moser	1.1	1	0.24	0	5%	0
TBL E. Cernak	1.1	1	0.20	0	4%	0
TBL J. Viel	1.1	0	0.18	0	7%	0
TBL C. D'Astous	1.1	2	0.27	0	5%	0
NYR B. Schneider	1.1	1	0.20	0	5%	0
TBL Z. Girgensons	1.0	2	0.21	1	10%	1
TBL C. Geekie	0.9	0	0.22	0	10%	0
NYR N. Laba	0.9	2	0.28	0	11%	0
TBL R. McDonagh	0.8	1	0.28	0	4%	0
NYR M. Pettersson	0.8	1	0.25	2	4%	0
NYR M. Rempe	0.6	0	0.12	0	6%	0
NYR A. Smits	0.6	0	0.12	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.