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Game Recap
TBL2
STL3
STL beat TBL 3-2 despite fewer good chances: 1.76 expected goals to 2.72. N. Kucherov led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). N. Perbix had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 0.9. J. Binnington stopped 21 of 23.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| STL | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
- 2nd 2:39TBLN. Perbix0.13 xG
- 2nd 7:57STLO. Sundqvist0.41 xG
- 2nd 18:25STLA. Toropchenko0.10 xG
- 3rd 8:51STLJ. Kyrou0.22 xG
- 3rd 11:43TBLV. Hedman0.02 xG
Team Stats
TBLSTL
23Shots on goal23
2.72Expected goals1.76
60Shot attempts41
185v5 shots on goal23
0/3Power play0/1
12Hits24
11Blocked shots18
2Penalty minutes6
8Giveaways18
6Takeaways7
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
TBL 2.72 xGSTL 1.76 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Kucherov | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25:56 | 5:31 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:58 | 0:29 |
| B. Hagel | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 24:36 | 5:02 |
| J. Guentzel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:57 | 5:01 |
| N. Paul | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:30 | 2:01 |
| M. Chaffee | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:16 | 3:34 |
| M. Eyssimont | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:36 | 0:00 |
| G. Goncalves | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:34 | 0:00 |
| C. Geekie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:23 | 0:59 |
| L. Glendening | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:58 | 0:00 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9:19 | 0:00 |
| C. Atkinson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 7:34 | 1:24 |
| V. Hedman | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 23:30 | 4:31 |
| N. Perbix | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 14:18 | 0:00 |
| R. McDonagh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:53 | 0:04 |
| E. Cernak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 20:37 | 0:00 |
| J. Moser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:23 | 1:24 |
| E. Lilleberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 11:20 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Vasilevskiy | 23 | 20 | 3 | .870 | 58:22 | Loss |
| J. Johansson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
STL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Schenn | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 21:47 | 1:18 |
| A. Toropchenko | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:44 | 0:00 |
| J. Kyrou | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:48 | 0:45 |
| O. Sundqvist | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 14:20 | 0:00 |
| R. Faksa | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:57 | 0:00 |
| B. Saad | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:29 | 0:42 |
| Z. Bolduc | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 9:58 | 1:05 |
| P. Buchnevich | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:10 | 0:40 |
| J. Neighbours | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 18:01 | 0:45 |
| N. Walker | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:31 | 0:15 |
| A. Texier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:03 | 0:17 |
| D. Holloway | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4:16 | 0:58 |
| M. Kessel | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11:05 | 0:13 |
| J. Faulk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 25:49 | 0:45 |
| R. Suter | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 24:42 | 0:09 |
| C. Parayko | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 24:24 | 1:02 |
| P. Joseph | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 23:53 | 0:00 |
| S. Perunovich | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:03 | 1:06 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Binnington | 23 | 21 | 2 | .913 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Hofer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TBL 3.4, STL 3.3 | TBL 2, STL 3 |
| Total goals | 6.7 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | TBL 29.6, STL 29.1 | TBL 23, STL 23 |
| Win chance | TBL 51% | STL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL N. Kucherov | 3.3 | 3 | 1.48 | 2 | 35% | 0 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 3.2 | 3 | 1.00 | 0 | 36% | 0 |
| STL J. Kyrou | 3.0 | 2 | 0.95 | 1 | 34% | 1 |
| TBL B. Hagel | 2.4 | 1 | 0.92 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| TBL V. Hedman | 2.3 | 3 | 0.79 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| STL P. Buchnevich | 2.1 | 3 | 0.84 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| STL J. Faulk | 2.0 | 4 | 0.58 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| STL B. Schenn | 2.0 | 1 | 0.67 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| STL J. Neighbours | 1.9 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| STL D. Holloway | 1.8 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| STL C. Parayko | 1.8 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| STL B. Saad | 1.8 | 2 | 0.56 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| TBL N. Paul | 1.8 | 0 | 0.50 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| TBL M. Eyssimont | 1.7 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 1.7 | 1 | 0.61 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| STL A. Texier | 1.5 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| TBL C. Atkinson | 1.4 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| STL Z. Bolduc | 1.4 | 0 | 0.38 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| STL A. Toropchenko | 1.4 | 3 | 0.27 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| TBL C. Geekie | 1.3 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| STL R. Suter | 1.2 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 1.1 | 3 | 0.32 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL J. Moser | 1.1 | 2 | 0.33 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| STL R. Faksa | 1.0 | 1 | 0.26 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 1.0 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TBL M. Chaffee | 1.0 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| STL N. Walker | 1.0 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| STL P. Joseph | 0.9 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 0.9 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TBL N. Perbix | 0.9 | 4 | 0.25 | 1 | 3% | 1 |
| TBL L. Glendening | 0.8 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| STL O. Sundqvist | 0.8 | 1 | 0.29 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| TBL E. Lilleberg | 0.7 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| STL S. Perunovich | 0.6 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| STL M. Kessel | 0.6 | 1 | 0.13 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.