Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
TOR3
FinalThu, Dec 21, 2023Every game that night
BUF9

BUF beat TOR 9-3, and the chances backed it up: 3.94 expected goals to 2.28. A. Tuch led the way with 4 points (0 G, 4 A). D. Levi stopped 24 of 27.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
TOR2103
BUF3339
  1. 1st 2:27BUFJ. Greenway0.01 xG
  2. 1st 7:28TORA. Matthews0.02 xG
  3. 1st 12:39TORM. DomiPP0.05 xG
  4. 1st 13:44BUFO. Power0.12 xG
  5. 1st 15:51BUFJ. Skinner0.11 xG
  6. 2nd 4:44BUFR. DahlinPP0.08 xG
  7. 2nd 5:42TORC. JarnkrokSH0.16 xG
  8. 2nd 8:22BUFT. Thompson0.01 xG
  9. 2nd 11:04BUFK. OkposoSH0.07 xG
  10. 3rd 11:08BUFJ. Quinn0.21 xG
  11. 3rd 12:23BUFJ. Skinner0.18 xG
  12. 3rd 15:02BUFK. Okposo0.14 xG

Team Stats

TORBUF
27Shots on goal34
2.28Expected goals3.94
61Shot attempts65
185v5 shots on goal27
1/4Power play1/5
20Hits28
14Blocked shots19
10Penalty minutes8
2Giveaways3
7Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TOR 2.28 xGBUF 3.94 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.541st2nd3rdBUF goal, 2:27TOR goal, 7:28TOR goal, 12:39BUF goal, 13:44BUF goal, 15:51BUF goal, 4:44TOR goal, 5:42BUF goal, 8:22BUF goal, 11:04BUF goal, 11:08BUF goal, 12:23BUF goal, 15:02

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TOR26 on goal, 3 scored
BUF34 on goal, 9 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TOR Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
A. MatthewsC101100-1018:193:59
W. NylanderRW0116000017:184:03
C. JarnkrokC101110-2015:242:31
M. DomiC101110-4212:482:11
M. MarnerRW000101-2019:483:52
J. TavaresC000430-1217:474:09
T. BertuzziLW000211-3015:142:05
D. KampfC000101-1013:570:15
N. GregorLW000140-1213:020:12
M. KniesLW0002100012:260:00
B. McMannC000020-2010:240:12
N. RobertsonLW000100-209:140:00
T. LiljegrenD022325-1023:302:14
M. RiellyD011001-1022:263:57
T. BrodieD000102-1022:360:12
J. McCabeD000131-2220:530:13
S. BenoitD000122-3214:280:00
C. TimminsD000000-4012:292:20
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
I. Samsonov19145.73728:12Loss
M. Jones15114.73331:38

BUF Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
A. TuchRW044102+2216:143:02
T. ThompsonC1235100015:203:07
J. SkinnerLW2135010014:263:08
Z. BensonLW022200+2017:413:44
K. OkposoRW202441+3011:571:05
C. MittelstadtC011000+2017:324:13
J. QuinnRW101301+1416:333:36
J. PeterkaRW011110+1016:314:49
J. GreenwayLW101222+1016:290:00
P. KrebsC011202+109:240:02
D. CozensC000100+1019:064:48
V. OlofssonLW000110+209:250:00
C. CliftonD022261+5019:440:00
O. PowerD101213+5023:294:45
R. DahlinD1012120022:453:20
R. JohnsonD011001+2012:510:00
M. SamuelssonD000172-1219:030:06
E. JohnsonD000041+2014:420:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
D. Levi27243.88960:00Win
U. Luukkonen000–0:00