Game Recap: VAN 3, BUF 5, January 6, 2026

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Game Recap

VAN3

FinalTue, Jan 6, 2026Every game that night

BUF5

BUF beat VAN 5-3 despite fewer good chances: 2.59 expected goals to 5.06. VAN outshot BUF 37 to 20. A. Tuch led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). K. Sherwood had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. U. Luukkonen stopped 34 of 37.

Team Stats

VANBUF

37Shots on goal20

5.06Expected goals2.59

76Shot attempts41

195v5 shots on goal18

1/4Power play0/1

17Hits16

8Blocked shots14

2Penalty minutes8

16Giveaways15

4Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VAN 5.06 xGBUF 2.59 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VAN37 on goal, 3 scored

BUF18 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Boeser	RW	0	2	2	3	1	1	-3	0	18:34	4:12
E. Pettersson	C	1	0	1	3	0	1	-2	0	18:41	4:08
K. Sherwood	LW	0	1	1	6	4	0	-2	0	17:37	3:29
J. DeBrusk	LW	1	0	1	4	2	1	-2	0	16:58	4:06
L. Karlsson	C	0	1	1	3	1	0	+1	0	15:25	3:09
L. Ohgren	LW	1	0	1	4	1	0	+1	0	13:09	0:10
E. Kane	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-2	0	18:11	4:06
M. Sasson	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	14:52	3:12
D. Kampf	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	13:50	0:11
D. O'Connor	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	12:23	0:11
A. Räty	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	12:09	0:20
N. Hoglander	LW	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	10:53	0:26
F. Hronek	D	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	26:20	3:08
M. Pettersson	D	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	18:37	0:00
Z. Buium	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	22:50	3:11
T. Willander	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	2	16:40	4:07
T. Myers	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	-2	0	16:26	0:36
P. Joseph	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	15:34	0:33

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
T. Demko	19	15	4	.789	58:51	Loss
K. Lankinen	0	0	0	–	0:00

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Tuch	RW	1	1	2	3	1	2	+2	0	19:42	1:18
T. Thompson	C	1	0	1	1	2	0	+2	4	18:37	0:42
J. Doan	RW	1	0	1	2	3	0	+2	0	18:11	0:42
R. McLeod	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	14:30	1:18
J. Norris	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	2	14:28	0:42
B. Malenstyn	LW	0	1	1	0	3	1	0	0	11:56	0:00
J. Greenway	LW	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	10:11	0:00
P. Krebs	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	+2	0	17:12	0:00
J. Zucker	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	14:11	0:42
Z. Benson	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	12:52	1:18
J. Quinn	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	11:11	1:18
N. Ostlund	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	10:59	0:00
B. Byram	D	0	2	2	2	0	2	+1	2	24:29	0:00
M. Samuelsson	D	0	1	1	1	1	5	+2	0	24:36	0:00
O. Power	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	22:09	1:18
Z. Metsa	D	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	12:16	0:00
R. Dahlin	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	21:49	0:42
J. Bryson	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	12:50	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
U. Luukkonen	37	34	3	.919	60:00	Win
C. Ellis	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

VAN

Line 1E. Kane13:14B. Boeser12:57M. Sasson11:22

Line 2D. Kampf13:10K. Sherwood12:56D. O'Connor11:46

Line 3A. Räty11:19N. Hoglander10:27L. Ohgren12:41

Line 4J. DeBrusk11:24L. Karlsson11:58E. Pettersson13:14

Pair 1F. Hronek21:07Z. Buium18:30

Pair 2T. Myers14:18P. Joseph15:01

Pair 3M. Pettersson17:03T. Willander12:33

BUF

Line 1T. Thompson16:57J. Doan16:38P. Krebs16:21

Line 2J. Zucker13:29A. Tuch12:59J. Norris13:28

Line 3Z. Benson11:27J. Quinn9:53R. McLeod7:55

Line 4B. Malenstyn9:23N. Ostlund10:51J. Greenway7:31

Pair 1M. Samuelsson18:43B. Byram19:55

Pair 2J. Bryson12:00Z. Metsa12:16

Pair 3R. Dahlin18:10O. Power17:04

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VAN 3.0, BUF 3.4	VAN 3, BUF 5
Total goals	6.4	8
Shots on goal	VAN 26.0, BUF 29.4	VAN 37, BUF 20
Win chance	BUF 56%	BUF won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BUF T. Thompson	3.5	1	1.07	1	41%	1
BUF R. Dahlin	2.6	0	0.82	0	18%	0
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.5	4	0.60	1	28%	1
BUF J. Doan	2.5	2	0.71	1	24%	1
BUF A. Tuch	2.4	3	0.86	2	30%	1
BUF J. Zucker	2.3	0	0.74	0	26%	0
VAN K. Sherwood	2.2	6	0.55	1	25%	0
VAN E. Kane	2.2	3	0.49	0	23%	0
VAN B. Boeser	2.2	3	0.71	2	30%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	2.0	3	0.86	1	30%	1
BUF Z. Benson	1.8	2	0.54	0	16%	0
BUF J. Quinn	1.7	2	0.60	0	19%	0
BUF J. Norris	1.7	1	0.70	1	29%	0
BUF O. Power	1.6	1	0.47	1	9%	0
VAN F. Hronek	1.5	1	0.59	1	8%	0
VAN L. Karlsson	1.5	3	0.43	1	18%	0
VAN L. Ohgren	1.4	4	0.22	1	11%	1
VAN D. O'Connor	1.4	3	0.36	0	16%	0
BUF R. McLeod	1.4	1	0.63	1	20%	1
BUF B. Byram	1.4	2	0.54	2	15%	0
BUF M. Samuelsson	1.3	1	0.35	1	8%	0
BUF P. Krebs	1.2	0	0.38	0	11%	0
VAN M. Sasson	1.2	2	0.28	0	16%	0
VAN N. Hoglander	1.2	0	0.34	0	16%	0
BUF N. Ostlund	1.1	2	0.40	0	17%	0
VAN T. Myers	1.1	2	0.27	0	5%	0
VAN T. Willander	1.1	1	0.41	0	6%	0
VAN A. Räty	1.0	1	0.33	0	14%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	1.0	0	0.19	1	8%	0
VAN D. Kampf	1.0	0	0.28	0	12%	0
BUF J. Greenway	1.0	0	0.24	1	9%	0
VAN M. Pettersson	1.0	0	0.33	1	4%	0
VAN Z. Buium	0.9	1	0.39	0	7%	0
VAN P. Joseph	0.7	0	0.14	0	3%	0
BUF Z. Metsa	0.4	1	0.07	1	3%	1
BUF J. Bryson	0.3	1	0.11	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.