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Game Recap
VAN2
FinalThu, Oct 8, 2026Every game that night
CAR7

CAR beat VAN 7-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.95 expected goals to 2.45. CAR outshot VAN 34 to 20. S. Walker led the way with 4 points (0 G, 4 A). E. Robinson had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. P. Kochetkov stopped 18 of 20.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
VAN0112
CAR3317
  1. 1st 1:18CARK. Miller0.11 xG
  2. 1st 7:11CARA. SvechnikovPP0.16 xG
  3. 1st 9:25CARA. SvechnikovPP0.32 xG
  4. 2nd 3:20CARM. Jankowski0.16 xG
  5. 2nd 4:03VANJ. DeBrusk0.54 xG
  6. 2nd 13:13CARL. StankovenSH0.26 xG
  7. 2nd 19:02CARL. StankovenPP0.18 xG
  8. 3rd 11:36CARL. Stankoven0.11 xG
  9. 3rd 13:04VANJ. DeBrusk0.16 xG

Team Stats

VANCAR
20Shots on goal34
2.45Expected goals4.95
41Shot attempts53
135v5 shots on goal27
0/4Power play3/3
20Hits18
7Blocked shots9
6Penalty minutes8
13Giveaways25
5Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VAN 2.45 xGCAR 4.95 xGGoal

0123451st2nd3rdCAR goal, 1:18CAR goal, 7:11CAR goal, 9:25CAR goal, 3:20VAN goal, 4:03CAR goal, 13:13CAR goal, 19:02CAR goal, 11:36VAN goal, 13:04

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VAN20 on goal, 2 scored
CAR32 on goal, 7 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VAN Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
E. PetterssonC022120+1020:205:00
J. DeBruskLW202410+1018:444:57
J. LekkerimäkiRW011310+2017:202:47
M. RossiC000320-2018:554:57
B. BoeserRW000100-2018:154:58
L. KarlssonC0002000215:432:49
P. CotterLW000040-1014:360:00
M. SassonC0000010213:460:00
L. OhgrenLW000100-1013:092:56
D. O'ConnorLW000020-1212:480:05
A. BainsLW000010-209:380:13
A. RätyC000010-208:360:13
Z. BuiumD011011+1023:493:03
F. HronekD000122-2023:524:59
T. WillanderD000001-1020:283:03
E. PetterssonD000311+1016:570:00
V. ManciniD000021+1015:240:00
J. OleksiakD000100-3014:480:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
K. Lankinen18126.66739:42Loss
L. Meriläinen16151.93820:00

CAR Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
L. StankovenC303501+2015:080:30
J. BlakeRW022500+1015:312:32
A. SvechnikovRW202420+1015:192:40
T. HallLW022200+1013:430:30
S. AhoC011101+2017:412:40
M. JankowskiLW101240+1015:070:37
J. KotkaniemiC011001+1213:240:00
W. CarrierLW0111300012:480:00
J. MartinookLW000320-2015:470:00
E. RobinsonLW000520+1014:290:00
J. StaalC000011-2013:350:46
N. EhlersLW000110-1011:081:47
S. WalkerD044001+2021:230:38
S. GostisbehereD022200+2019:292:51
K. MillerD101100+1220:170:19
J. SlavinD000002-1021:010:00
J. ChatfieldD000101-1419:290:00
M. ReillyD000131+1016:410:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
P. Kochetkov20182.90060:00Win
B. Bussi000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

VAN

Line 1E. Pettersson14:06J. Lekkerimäki14:33J. DeBrusk13:47
Line 2P. Cotter13:10M. Rossi13:58B. Boeser13:17
Line 3A. Räty7:50A. Bains8:05D. O'Connor11:47
Line 4M. Sasson12:57L. Ohgren9:19L. Karlsson12:36
Pair 1F. Hronek17:12Z. Buium20:46
Pair 2E. Pettersson15:09V. Mancini13:37
Pair 3J. Oleksiak13:24T. Willander17:07

CAR

Line 1T. Hall12:55L. Stankoven12:33J. Blake12:41
Line 2S. Aho13:19A. Svechnikov12:39W. Carrier12:48
Line 3M. Jankowski11:34E. Robinson11:38J. Kotkaniemi13:12
Line 4J. Staal9:47J. Martinook12:22N. Ehlers9:21
Pair 1S. Walker17:23K. Miller17:26
Pair 2J. Chatfield16:07J. Slavin15:39
Pair 3M. Reilly14:56S. Gostisbehere16:20

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

8 of 18 overs hit (44%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
CAR A. Svechnikov2.5-125+1104Over
CAR J. Blake2.5+150-1705Over
CAR L. Stankoven2.5+135-1505Over
CAR N. Ehlers2.5+115-1221Under
CAR S. Aho2.5-102-1101Under
CAR S. Walker2.5+160-1900Under
VAN B. Boeser1.5-138+1201Under
VAN F. Hronek1.5+100-1201Under
VAN J. DeBrusk1.5-185+1404Over
CAR J. Martinook1.5-125+1053Over
CAR J. Slavin1.5+115-1350Under
CAR J. Staal1.5-115+1000Under
CAR K. Miller1.5-105-1401Under
VAN M. Rossi1.5+108–3Over
CAR S. Gostisbehere1.5-130+1162Over
CAR T. Hall1.5-140+1352Over
CAR W. Carrier1.5+110-1401Under
VAN Z. Buium1.5+148–0Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreVAN 2.5, CAR 4.0VAN 2, CAR 7
Total goals6.59
Shots on goalVAN 21.0, CAR 33.5VAN 20, CAR 34
Win chanceCAR 72%CAR won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
CAR A. Svechnikov2.740.96231%2
CAR L. Stankoven2.650.77328%3
CAR S. Aho2.611.15135%0
CAR N. Ehlers2.511.05031%0
CAR J. Blake2.450.94228%0
VAN J. DeBrusk2.140.50224%2
CAR T. Hall2.120.77224%0
CAR S. Walker1.900.40410%0
VAN B. Boeser1.810.63026%0
CAR J. Martinook1.730.46017%0
CAR J. Staal1.700.56021%0
CAR S. Gostisbehere1.720.80215%0
VAN E. Pettersson1.610.72224%0
CAR J. Slavin1.600.4108%0
CAR J. Chatfield1.510.3709%0
CAR W. Carrier1.510.39115%0
CAR K. Miller1.410.58111%1
VAN L. Karlsson1.420.45016%0
VAN F. Hronek1.410.5208%0
VAN D. O'Connor1.300.31014%0
CAR M. Reilly1.310.2404%0
VAN M. Rossi1.330.58021%0
VAN L. Ohgren1.310.35013%0
CAR E. Robinson1.250.35014%0
VAN J. Lekkerimäki1.230.37117%0
CAR J. Kotkaniemi1.100.35113%0
VAN M. Sasson1.100.34017%0
CAR M. Jankowski1.020.38116%1
VAN P. Cotter0.900.28015%0
VAN A. Räty0.900.21010%0
VAN Z. Buium0.800.2616%0
VAN J. Oleksiak0.810.1904%0
VAN T. Willander0.700.3106%0
VAN A. Bains0.600.1708%0
VAN E. Pettersson0.630.1304%0
VAN V. Mancini0.500.1403%0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.