VAN beat CGY 4-3 in a shootout, and the chances backed it up: 4.18 expected goals to 1.97. VAN outshot CGY 31 to 23. J. Huberdeau led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). N. Hoglander had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. K. Lankinen stopped 20 of 23.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | SO | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| CGY | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
- 1st 13:33VANP. Suter0.04 xG
- 1st 17:53CGYN. Kadri0.16 xG
- 2nd 10:32VANJ. DeBruskPP0.10 xG
- 2nd 13:58CGYJ. HuberdeauSH0.15 xG
- 2nd 16:01CGYJ. HuberdeauPP0.07 xG
- 3rd 13:16VANE. Pettersson0.24 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
VAN 4.18 xGCGY 1.97 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
VAN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Pettersson | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:57 | 5:29 |
| J. DeBrusk | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:43 | 5:50 |
| P. Suter | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:37 | 1:08 |
| N. Hoglander | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 13:28 | 0:00 |
| B. Boeser | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:14 | 5:50 |
| C. Garland | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19:34 | 5:12 |
| F. Chytil | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:17 | 1:29 |
| K. Sherwood | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:02 | 1:08 |
| T. Blueger | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:35 | 0:00 |
| D. O'Connor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:01 | 0:00 |
| D. Joshua | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:42 | 0:00 |
| N. Aman | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 9:52 | 0:00 |
| Q. Hughes | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 29:48 | 6:23 |
| F. Hronek | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 28:07 | 1:46 |
| M. Pettersson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 24:40 | 0:35 |
| V. Mancini | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 18:32 | 0:00 |
| D. Forbort | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 14:46 | 0:00 |
| E. Pettersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 4:06 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Lankinen | 23 | 20 | 3 | .870 | 65:00 | Win |
| A. Silovs | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CGY Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Huberdeau | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 26:02 | 4:13 |
| N. Kadri | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 23:48 | 4:11 |
| K. Rooney | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:55 | 0:00 |
| M. Coronato | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:13 | 3:25 |
| Y. Sharangovich | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:46 | 1:35 |
| M. Frost | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:23 | 4:09 |
| B. Coleman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:15 | 0:47 |
| J. Farabee | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:52 | 0:47 |
| M. Pospisil | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:57 | 0:00 |
| C. Zary | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 4 | 12:57 | 0:50 |
| R. Lomberg | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6:36 | 0:00 |
| M. Backlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2:58 | 0:00 |
| M. Weegar | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 27:10 | 3:13 |
| R. Andersson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 26:43 | 1:45 |
| K. Bahl | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:45 | 0:00 |
| J. Hanley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:40 | 0:00 |
| J. Bean | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:54 | 0:00 |
| B. Pachal | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10:08 | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | VAN 2.7, CGY 2.9 | VAN 4, CGY 3 |
| Total goals | 5.6 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | VAN 24.8, CGY 27.8 | VAN 31, CGY 23 |
| Win chance | CGY 54% | VAN won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY N. Kadri | 3.2 | 7 | 0.88 | 2 | 30% | 1 |
| CGY B. Coleman | 2.3 | 0 | 0.57 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| VAN F. Chytil | 2.2 | 4 | 0.47 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CGY M. Weegar | 2.2 | 0 | 0.59 | 2 | 15% | 0 |
| VAN Q. Hughes | 2.1 | 1 | 0.82 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| VAN C. Garland | 2.1 | 2 | 0.56 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| CGY M. Coronato | 2.1 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CGY M. Backlund | 2.0 | 2 | 0.47 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| VAN B. Boeser | 1.9 | 0 | 0.66 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| CGY J. Huberdeau | 1.9 | 4 | 0.82 | 2 | 24% | 2 |
| VAN J. DeBrusk | 1.8 | 4 | 0.50 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| VAN E. Pettersson | 1.8 | 2 | 0.71 | 2 | 26% | 1 |
| CGY R. Andersson | 1.7 | 1 | 0.41 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| CGY M. Frost | 1.7 | 0 | 0.55 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CGY J. Farabee | 1.7 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CGY Y. Sharangovich | 1.7 | 2 | 0.53 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| VAN K. Sherwood | 1.6 | 2 | 0.39 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CGY C. Zary | 1.5 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| VAN P. Suter | 1.5 | 3 | 0.40 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| VAN F. Hronek | 1.5 | 1 | 0.46 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| VAN D. O'Connor | 1.5 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| VAN N. Hoglander | 1.3 | 6 | 0.33 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| CGY M. Pospisil | 1.2 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VAN T. Blueger | 1.0 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| VAN V. Mancini | 1.0 | 1 | 0.21 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| CGY J. Bean | 1.0 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| VAN M. Pettersson | 1.0 | 1 | 0.28 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| VAN D. Joshua | 0.9 | 2 | 0.33 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CGY K. Bahl | 0.9 | 4 | 0.23 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| CGY R. Lomberg | 0.8 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| VAN E. Pettersson | 0.8 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CGY B. Pachal | 0.8 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CGY K. Rooney | 0.7 | 1 | 0.13 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| CGY J. Hanley | 0.7 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| VAN D. Forbort | 0.7 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VAN N. Aman | 0.6 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.