Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
VAN3
CHI2
VAN beat CHI 3-2 in a shootout, and the chances backed it up: 3.81 expected goals to 2.74. J. DeBrusk had 10 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. K. Lankinen stopped 31 of 33.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | SO | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| CHI | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
- 1st 12:41CHIR. DonatoPP0.21 xG
- 1st 19:14CHIT. Bertuzzi0.58 xG
- 2nd 6:49VANJ. DeBruskPP0.25 xG
- 2nd 13:42VANM. Sasson0.23 xG
Team Stats
VANCHI
32Shots on goal33
3.81Expected goals2.74
64Shot attempts54
155v5 shots on goal26
1/6Power play1/3
26Hits19
10Blocked shots10
8Penalty minutes12
11Giveaways13
2Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
VAN 3.81 xGCHI 2.74 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
VAN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Garland | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:19 | 6:31 |
| J. DeBrusk | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:32 | 6:47 |
| M. Sasson | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 8:17 | 0:00 |
| L. Karlsson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 7:55 | 0:00 |
| B. Boeser | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:27 | 7:19 |
| E. Pettersson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:34 | 5:51 |
| F. Chytil | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:40 | 2:07 |
| K. Sherwood | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 4 | 15:02 | 1:23 |
| E. Kane | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14:45 | 1:11 |
| T. Blueger | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 12:57 | 0:00 |
| D. O'Connor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:50 | 0:00 |
| A. Bains | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 7:56 | 0:00 |
| Q. Hughes | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 30:08 | 7:11 |
| F. Hronek | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:31 | 0:50 |
| M. Pettersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:46 | 0:01 |
| T. Myers | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 19:13 | 0:04 |
| E. Pettersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:39 | 0:17 |
| V. Mancini | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:17 | 0:23 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Lankinen | 33 | 31 | 2 | .939 | 65:00 | Win |
| T. Demko | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Bertuzzi | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 19:02 | 1:57 |
| A. Burakovsky | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:18 | 0:40 |
| R. Donato | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 14:24 | 0:40 |
| C. Bedard | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 | 25:01 | 1:58 |
| I. Mikheyev | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:43 | 0:00 |
| J. Dickinson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 19:46 | 0:00 |
| F. Nazar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18:49 | 1:58 |
| T. Teravainen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:18 | 1:58 |
| L. Reichel | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10:42 | 0:00 |
| R. Greene | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:15 | 0:40 |
| C. Dach | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:41 | 0:40 |
| S. Rinzel | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 20:56 | 1:58 |
| A. Levshunov | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:47 | 0:40 |
| A. Vlasic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 24:47 | 0:00 |
| W. Kaiser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:35 | 0:00 |
| C. Murphy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:38 | 0:00 |
| M. Grzelcyk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:59 | 0:00 |
| L. Crevier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:46 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Knight | 32 | 30 | 2 | .938 | 65:00 | OT loss |
| A. Soderblom | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
VAN
Line 1F. Chytil13:59B. Boeser13:40J. DeBrusk12:06
Line 2C. Garland12:13E. Pettersson11:37E. Kane12:38
Line 3T. Blueger11:02K. Sherwood11:03D. O'Connor12:50
Line 4M. Sasson8:17L. Karlsson7:55A. Bains7:15
Pair 1T. Myers16:20M. Pettersson17:37
Pair 2E. Pettersson11:31F. Hronek16:45
Pair 3V. Mancini11:05Q. Hughes16:17
CHI
Line 1C. Bedard16:59A. Burakovsky13:45T. Bertuzzi16:18
Line 2R. Donato13:18I. Mikheyev12:59J. Dickinson12:48
Line 3T. Teravainen11:47F. Nazar12:25L. Reichel8:00
Pair 2M. Grzelcyk12:17A. Levshunov8:51
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | VAN 3.1, CHI 2.9 | VAN 3, CHI 2 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | VAN 26.0, CHI 24.1 | VAN 32, CHI 33 |
| Win chance | VAN 54% | VAN won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN F. Chytil | 2.6 | 3 | 0.53 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| VAN E. Kane | 2.5 | 2 | 0.58 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| VAN Q. Hughes | 2.5 | 3 | 1.03 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| VAN C. Garland | 2.3 | 3 | 0.65 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| CHI C. Bedard | 2.2 | 4 | 0.83 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| VAN J. DeBrusk | 2.2 | 10 | 0.63 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| VAN B. Boeser | 2.1 | 3 | 0.77 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| CHI R. Donato | 2.1 | 3 | 0.63 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| CHI I. Mikheyev | 1.9 | 5 | 0.54 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| CHI F. Nazar | 1.9 | 0 | 0.65 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| VAN K. Sherwood | 1.9 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| VAN E. Pettersson | 1.7 | 2 | 0.78 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| CHI S. Rinzel | 1.7 | 2 | 0.37 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| CHI T. Bertuzzi | 1.6 | 6 | 0.59 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| CHI A. Burakovsky | 1.6 | 0 | 0.55 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| VAN F. Hronek | 1.4 | 1 | 0.52 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| VAN D. O'Connor | 1.4 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CHI T. Teravainen | 1.3 | 2 | 0.70 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| VAN T. Myers | 1.3 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| VAN T. Blueger | 1.2 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VAN M. Sasson | 1.2 | 1 | 0.28 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| CHI C. Dach | 1.2 | 4 | 0.39 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| VAN L. Karlsson | 1.2 | 1 | 0.23 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| CHI W. Kaiser | 1.1 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CHI A. Levshunov | 1.1 | 1 | 0.30 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| CHI C. Murphy | 1.0 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CHI J. Dickinson | 1.0 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| VAN M. Pettersson | 0.9 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CHI A. Vlasic | 0.9 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CHI L. Reichel | 0.9 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CHI M. Grzelcyk | 0.9 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| VAN V. Mancini | 0.8 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CHI R. Greene | 0.7 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CHI L. Crevier | 0.7 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| VAN E. Pettersson | 0.6 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VAN A. Bains | 0.6 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 27 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.