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Game Recap
VAN4
COL1
VAN beat COL 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.44 expected goals to 3.03. D. Joshua led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). S. Girard had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. K. Lankinen stopped 31 of 32.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| COL | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
- 2nd 4:50VANJ. DeBrusk0.08 xG
- 2nd 7:51VANK. Sherwood0.07 xG
- 2nd 16:36COLD. Toews0.07 xG
- 3rd 6:14VAND. Joshua0.47 xG
- 3rd 18:02VANN. HoglanderEN0.95 xG
Team Stats
VANCOL
30Shots on goal32
4.44Expected goals3.03
62Shot attempts58
265v5 shots on goal30
0/2Power play0/2
14Hits16
11Blocked shots19
9Penalty minutes9
11Giveaways21
4Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
VAN 4.44 xGCOL 3.03 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
VAN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Sherwood | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 16:07 | 1:43 |
| D. Joshua | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 12:18 | 0:08 |
| N. Hoglander | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:10 | 1:45 |
| C. Garland | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 16:09 | 2:08 |
| J. DeBrusk | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:44 | 2:08 |
| A. Räty | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 12:40 | 0:00 |
| P. Suter | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:55 | 2:08 |
| T. Blueger | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:36 | 0:08 |
| B. Boeser | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:09 | 2:18 |
| D. O'Connor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:47 | 0:08 |
| L. Karlsson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:24 | 1:34 |
| M. Sasson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:42 | 0:00 |
| F. Hronek | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | +4 | 0 | 24:15 | 1:44 |
| M. Pettersson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 22:59 | 0:00 |
| D. Forbort | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:38 | 0:08 |
| Q. Hughes | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24:08 | 3:52 |
| V. Mancini | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:33 | 0:08 |
| E. Pettersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 14:35 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Lankinen | 32 | 31 | 1 | .969 | 60:00 | Win |
| T. Demko | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
COL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Coyle | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:26 | 2:48 |
| A. Lehkonen | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:51 | 1:41 |
| V. Nichushkin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:47 | 2:51 |
| B. Nelson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:52 | 2:53 |
| M. Necas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 2 | 18:03 | 2:35 |
| L. O'Connor | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 5 | 15:25 | 0:03 |
| J. Drury | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:54 | 0:18 |
| M. Wood | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 14:39 | 0:00 |
| P. Kelly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:45 | 0:00 |
| J. Vesey | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:35 | 0:00 |
| J. Kiviranta | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:45 | 0:20 |
| C. Wagner | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7:55 | 0:00 |
| C. Makar | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 0 | 27:00 | 2:45 |
| D. Toews | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 22:59 | 0:23 |
| S. Girard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 21:50 | 0:20 |
| E. Johnson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:45 | 0:00 |
| S. Malinski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:06 | 0:03 |
| K. Middleton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12:17 | 0:03 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Blackwood | 29 | 26 | 3 | .897 | 58:06 | Loss |
| S. Wedgewood | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | VAN 2.7, COL 3.5 | VAN 4, COL 1 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | VAN 23.3, COL 29.6 | VAN 30, COL 32 |
| Win chance | COL 63% | VAN won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL V. Nichushkin | 3.0 | 1 | 0.95 | 0 | 37% | 0 |
| COL C. Makar | 3.0 | 2 | 1.16 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| COL M. Necas | 2.7 | 1 | 0.92 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| VAN Q. Hughes | 2.3 | 4 | 0.91 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| COL B. Nelson | 2.2 | 2 | 0.77 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| VAN C. Garland | 2.1 | 2 | 0.59 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| VAN B. Boeser | 2.1 | 1 | 0.71 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| COL A. Lehkonen | 2.1 | 4 | 0.71 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| VAN J. DeBrusk | 2.0 | 2 | 0.53 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| VAN P. Suter | 1.9 | 4 | 0.55 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| COL D. Toews | 1.8 | 2 | 0.63 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| VAN K. Sherwood | 1.7 | 2 | 0.44 | 2 | 18% | 1 |
| COL M. Wood | 1.6 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| COL S. Malinski | 1.5 | 3 | 0.26 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| VAN N. Hoglander | 1.4 | 1 | 0.38 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| VAN F. Hronek | 1.3 | 3 | 0.44 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| VAN D. O'Connor | 1.3 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| COL J. Drury | 1.2 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| COL C. Coyle | 1.2 | 2 | 0.44 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| VAN A. Räty | 1.2 | 2 | 0.33 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| COL S. Girard | 1.1 | 4 | 0.32 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| COL P. Kelly | 1.1 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VAN L. Karlsson | 1.1 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VAN T. Blueger | 1.1 | 3 | 0.28 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| COL E. Johnson | 1.1 | 3 | 0.16 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| COL L. O'Connor | 1.1 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| VAN M. Sasson | 1.1 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VAN D. Joshua | 1.0 | 2 | 0.31 | 2 | 15% | 1 |
| COL J. Kiviranta | 1.0 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| COL K. Middleton | 0.9 | 2 | 0.09 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| COL J. Vesey | 0.9 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| VAN M. Pettersson | 0.9 | 0 | 0.29 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| VAN V. Mancini | 0.8 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| COL C. Wagner | 0.8 | 1 | 0.09 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| VAN E. Pettersson | 0.7 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| VAN D. Forbort | 0.6 | 2 | 0.14 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.