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Game Recap
VAN8
COL6
VAN beat COL 8-6, with the chances close: 2.98 expected goals to 2.91. B. Boeser scored three for VAN. C. Douglas had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 0.7. K. Lankinen stopped 24 of 30.
Team Stats
VANCOL
26Shots on goal30
2.98Expected goals2.91
49Shot attempts61
215v5 shots on goal24
1/3Power play0/3
21Hits11
14Blocked shots8
4Penalty minutes6
8Giveaways21
5Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
VAN 2.98 xGCOL 2.91 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
VAN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Boeser | RW | 3 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:57 | 3:08 |
| T. Blueger | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:48 | 0:06 |
| M. Sasson | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:18 | 0:07 |
| M. Rossi | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:36 | 3:21 |
| D. O'Connor | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 12:43 | 0:40 |
| E. Pettersson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:04 | 3:12 |
| L. Ohgren | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:15 | 0:53 |
| J. DeBrusk | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17:02 | 2:53 |
| L. Karlsson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 16:59 | 0:58 |
| A. Räty | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11:52 | 0:33 |
| N. Hoglander | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 6:57 | 0:00 |
| C. Douglas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 6:18 | 0:00 |
| M. Pettersson | D | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | +4 | 0 | 25:07 | 0:00 |
| F. Hronek | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 28:47 | 3:04 |
| T. Willander | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 18:57 | 1:02 |
| Z. Buium | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:48 | 1:13 |
| E. Pettersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 17:31 | 0:00 |
| P. Joseph | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 11:01 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Lankinen | 30 | 24 | 6 | .800 | 60:00 | Win |
| N. Tolopilo | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
COL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V. Nichushkin | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:01 | 1:25 |
| N. MacKinnon | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 24:21 | 5:20 |
| B. Nelson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:29 | 4:32 |
| G. Landeskog | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 4 | 15:26 | 1:27 |
| P. Kelly | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:03 | 0:00 |
| J. Drury | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:31 | 0:00 |
| M. Necas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 25:06 | 4:36 |
| N. Kadri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -5 | 0 | 17:59 | 4:38 |
| A. Lehkonen | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 16:53 | 1:23 |
| R. Colton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 9:35 | 0:00 |
| L. O'Connor | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:15 | 0:00 |
| J. Kiviranta | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 8:11 | 0:00 |
| S. Malinski | D | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:52 | 2:48 |
| D. Toews | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 24:54 | 2:39 |
| B. Burns | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:09 | 1:12 |
| J. Manson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 16:55 | 0:00 |
| B. Kulak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 19:13 | 0:00 |
| N. Blankenburg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:08 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Blackwood | 19 | 13 | 6 | .684 | 35:21 | |
| S. Wedgewood | 6 | 5 | 1 | .833 | 22:24 | Loss |
Lines at 5-on-5
VAN
Line 1T. Blueger15:41M. Sasson14:46L. Karlsson15:40
Line 2E. Pettersson14:42J. DeBrusk13:26L. Ohgren13:55
Line 3D. O'Connor12:03B. Boeser11:31M. Rossi10:15
Line 4N. Hoglander6:57C. Douglas6:18A. Räty7:01
Pair 1M. Pettersson19:09T. Willander15:42
Pair 2F. Hronek19:39E. Pettersson15:14
COL
Line 1M. Necas18:15N. MacKinnon16:46A. Lehkonen14:44
Line 2B. Nelson14:11G. Landeskog12:30V. Nichushkin9:57
Line 3N. Kadri11:06R. Colton9:35L. O'Connor8:29
Line 4P. Kelly10:12J. Drury9:33J. Kiviranta7:25
Pair 1D. Toews17:49S. Malinski17:20
Pair 3B. Burns16:14N. Blankenburg11:08
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | VAN 2.4, COL 4.1 | VAN 8, COL 6 |
| Total goals | 6.6 | 14 |
| Shots on goal | VAN 23.0, COL 34.4 | VAN 26, COL 30 |
| Win chance | COL 75% | VAN won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL N. MacKinnon | 4.3 | 7 | 1.81 | 1 | 45% | 1 |
| COL N. Kadri | 2.8 | 3 | 0.91 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| COL M. Necas | 2.7 | 4 | 1.32 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| COL B. Nelson | 2.5 | 2 | 1.01 | 1 | 36% | 0 |
| COL G. Landeskog | 2.3 | 1 | 0.86 | 1 | 29% | 1 |
| COL V. Nichushkin | 2.1 | 2 | 0.74 | 2 | 29% | 0 |
| COL S. Malinski | 2.1 | 2 | 0.51 | 3 | 9% | 2 |
| VAN J. DeBrusk | 2.0 | 3 | 0.42 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| VAN B. Boeser | 2.0 | 4 | 0.54 | 4 | 25% | 3 |
| COL R. Colton | 1.9 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| VAN D. O'Connor | 1.9 | 3 | 0.37 | 2 | 18% | 0 |
| COL B. Burns | 1.8 | 1 | 0.40 | 2 | 10% | 1 |
| COL A. Lehkonen | 1.8 | 2 | 0.63 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| VAN L. Karlsson | 1.7 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| VAN L. Ohgren | 1.6 | 1 | 0.28 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| VAN E. Pettersson | 1.6 | 1 | 0.59 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| COL D. Toews | 1.5 | 1 | 0.52 | 2 | 11% | 0 |
| COL J. Manson | 1.5 | 2 | 0.41 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| VAN F. Hronek | 1.4 | 0 | 0.49 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| VAN T. Blueger | 1.4 | 2 | 0.33 | 2 | 12% | 2 |
| VAN M. Rossi | 1.4 | 0 | 0.51 | 2 | 19% | 0 |
| COL B. Kulak | 1.3 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| COL P. Kelly | 1.2 | 2 | 0.40 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| COL J. Drury | 1.2 | 0 | 0.37 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| COL L. O'Connor | 1.2 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| COL J. Kiviranta | 1.0 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| VAN A. Räty | 0.9 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| VAN M. Sasson | 0.9 | 2 | 0.21 | 2 | 13% | 1 |
| VAN N. Hoglander | 0.9 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| VAN T. Willander | 0.9 | 0 | 0.29 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| VAN Z. Buium | 0.9 | 0 | 0.28 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| COL N. Blankenburg | 0.8 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| VAN M. Pettersson | 0.8 | 1 | 0.24 | 3 | 3% | 1 |
| VAN P. Joseph | 0.7 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| VAN C. Douglas | 0.7 | 5 | 0.08 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VAN E. Pettersson | 0.6 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.