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Game Recap
VAN1
DET5
DET beat VAN 5-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.83 expected goals to 2.10. P. Kane led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). D. Larkin had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.7. J. Gibson stopped 23 of 24.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| DET | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
- 1st 19:31DETP. KanePP0.12 xG
- 2nd 5:09DETA. Sandin-Pellikka0.13 xG
- 2nd 7:03VANJ. DeBruskPP0.14 xG
- 2nd 10:10DETJ. Compher0.23 xG
- 3rd 16:07DETP. KaneEN0.85 xG
- 3rd 18:10DETL. Raymond0.23 xG
Team Stats
VANDET
24Shots on goal25
2.10Expected goals3.83
69Shot attempts54
205v5 shots on goal19
1/2Power play1/3
24Hits13
14Blocked shots27
6Penalty minutes4
17Giveaways17
3Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
VAN 2.10 xGDET 3.83 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
VAN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Sherwood | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:31 | 2:12 |
| B. Boeser | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:50 | 2:23 |
| J. DeBrusk | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 16:29 | 2:13 |
| E. Pettersson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:14 | 2:23 |
| E. Kane | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 15:27 | 0:53 |
| D. O'Connor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:13 | 0:00 |
| D. Kampf | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 2 | 15:01 | 0:00 |
| L. Ohgren | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:39 | 0:00 |
| M. Sasson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:17 | 0:54 |
| L. Karlsson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:12 | 0:52 |
| A. Räty | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:08 | 0:00 |
| N. Hoglander | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:32 | 0:12 |
| Z. Buium | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 2 | 23:38 | 1:16 |
| F. Hronek | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:16 | 0:44 |
| M. Pettersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 2 | 19:31 | 0:12 |
| T. Myers | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:18 | 0:10 |
| T. Willander | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 17:37 | 1:53 |
| E. Pettersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:44 | 0:08 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Lankinen | 24 | 20 | 4 | .833 | 58:39 | Loss |
| T. Demko | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
DET Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Raymond | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +3 | 0 | 16:45 | 3:00 |
| J. van Riemsdyk | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:39 | 3:02 |
| P. Kane | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:36 | 2:17 |
| J. Compher | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:45 | 0:00 |
| D. Larkin | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:25 | 3:01 |
| A. Copp | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 17:09 | 1:08 |
| A. DeBrincat | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:28 | 3:01 |
| E. Finnie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:18 | 1:09 |
| M. Rasmussen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:18 | 0:00 |
| M. Kasper | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:07 | 0:00 |
| M. Appleton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:54 | 0:00 |
| J. Leonard | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:17 | 1:04 |
| A. Sandin-Pellikka | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 15:55 | 1:38 |
| M. Seider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 24:43 | 1:21 |
| S. Edvinsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | +1 | 2 | 23:26 | 0:04 |
| B. Chiarot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | +3 | 0 | 20:02 | 0:00 |
| J. Bernard-Docker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 15:30 | 0:00 |
| A. Johansson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:26 | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
VAN
Line 1D. Kampf14:20K. Sherwood14:07J. DeBrusk12:38
Line 2D. O'Connor14:01A. Räty13:02E. Kane14:21
Line 3L. Karlsson12:00M. Sasson12:05L. Ohgren13:16
Line 4B. Boeser11:38E. Pettersson11:37N. Hoglander10:20
Pair 2M. Pettersson17:55T. Willander14:58
Pair 3T. Myers16:06E. Pettersson13:51
DET
Line 1A. Copp14:09A. DeBrincat14:09P. Kane12:58
Line 2J. Riemsdyk13:37L. Raymond13:45J. Compher13:29
Line 4M. Appleton12:17M. Rasmussen10:45J. Leonard10:07
Pair 1M. Seider21:26S. Edvinsson21:51
Pair 2B. Chiarot17:55A. Sandin-Pellikka14:11
Pair 3J. Bernard-Docker13:33A. Johansson13:47
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | VAN 3.1, DET 3.3 | VAN 1, DET 5 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | VAN 26.0, DET 28.4 | VAN 24, DET 25 |
| Win chance | DET 54% | DET won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET A. DeBrincat | 3.0 | 2 | 0.87 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| DET D. Larkin | 2.7 | 7 | 0.96 | 1 | 34% | 0 |
| VAN J. DeBrusk | 2.5 | 3 | 0.58 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| DET P. Kane | 2.4 | 2 | 0.80 | 2 | 23% | 2 |
| VAN K. Sherwood | 2.3 | 4 | 0.54 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| VAN E. Kane | 2.3 | 0 | 0.51 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| VAN B. Boeser | 2.1 | 1 | 0.69 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| DET L. Raymond | 2.1 | 2 | 0.93 | 2 | 25% | 1 |
| DET M. Seider | 2.0 | 1 | 0.62 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| VAN E. Pettersson | 2.0 | 2 | 0.84 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| DET E. Finnie | 1.8 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| VAN L. Karlsson | 1.6 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| DET A. Copp | 1.6 | 0 | 0.57 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| VAN F. Hronek | 1.6 | 1 | 0.59 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DET J. Riemsdyk | 1.5 | 2 | 0.48 | 2 | 18% | 0 |
| VAN L. Ohgren | 1.5 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| VAN D. O'Connor | 1.4 | 3 | 0.34 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| DET M. Kasper | 1.3 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DET S. Edvinsson | 1.3 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DET M. Rasmussen | 1.3 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| DET M. Appleton | 1.3 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| VAN M. Sasson | 1.3 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| DET J. Leonard | 1.2 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DET B. Chiarot | 1.2 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| VAN N. Hoglander | 1.1 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| VAN T. Myers | 1.1 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DET J. Compher | 1.1 | 4 | 0.40 | 2 | 15% | 1 |
| VAN T. Willander | 1.1 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| VAN A. Räty | 1.0 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| VAN D. Kampf | 1.0 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| VAN M. Pettersson | 0.9 | 2 | 0.33 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VAN Z. Buium | 0.9 | 3 | 0.38 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DET A. Sandin-Pellikka | 0.8 | 1 | 0.28 | 2 | 6% | 1 |
| DET J. Bernard-Docker | 0.8 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DET A. Johansson | 0.7 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VAN E. Pettersson | 0.6 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.