Game Recap: VAN 1, EDM 3, October 11, 2025

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Game Recap

VAN1

FinalSat, Oct 11, 2025Every game that night

EDM3

EDM beat VAN 3-1, and the chances backed it up: 5.73 expected goals to 2.39. EDM outshot VAN 37 to 15. D. Nurse had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. C. Pickard stopped 14 of 15.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
VAN	0	0	1	1
EDM	0	2	1	3

2nd 12:21EDMN. Philp0.14 xG
2nd 19:09EDMA. Mangiapane0.30 xG
3rd 0:47VANB. Boeser0.13 xG
3rd 18:47EDML. DraisaitlEN0.30 xG

Team Stats

VANEDM

15Shots on goal37

2.39Expected goals5.73

41Shot attempts68

145v5 shots on goal25

0/2Power play0/5

26Hits22

14Blocked shots13

12Penalty minutes6

21Giveaways14

3Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VAN 2.39 xGEDM 5.73 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VAN15 on goal, 1 scored

EDM37 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Boeser	RW	1	0	1	2	0	0	-1	0	18:38	3:32
J. DeBrusk	LW	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	16:42	3:32
E. Kane	LW	0	0	0	1	5	1	-1	4	18:49	3:25
C. Garland	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	17:49	0:00
F. Chytil	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	2	17:17	0:06
E. Pettersson	C	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	16:38	3:33
D. O'Connor	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:46	0:01
K. Sherwood	LW	0	0	0	1	5	0	-1	2	12:13	0:00
A. Räty	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	11:01	0:00
A. Bains	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	10:00	0:00
B. Cootes	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	9:53	0:00
J. Lekkerimäki	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	9:38	0:00
Q. Hughes	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	-1	0	25:58	3:33
F. Hronek	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	27:19	1:17
M. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	20:27	0:00
T. Myers	D	0	0	0	1	3	4	-2	2	20:11	0:00
D. Forbort	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	2	12:35	0:00
E. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	11:25	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
T. Demko	36	34	2	.944	57:41	Loss
K. Lankinen	0	0	0	–	0:00

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. McDavid	C	0	1	1	3	1	0	+1	0	24:29	7:40
L. Draisaitl	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	0	24:11	7:39
K. Kapanen	RW	0	1	1	0	6	1	0	0	13:22	0:05
A. Mangiapane	LW	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	0	11:19	0:00
V. Podkolzin	RW	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	0	11:00	0:02
N. Philp	C	1	0	1	2	2	0	0	2	10:48	0:01
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	0	20:02	7:37
D. Tomasek	RW	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	0	15:28	7:36
T. Frederic	C	0	0	0	4	3	0	0	2	14:51	1:49
A. Henrique	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	13:28	1:56
M. Savoie	C	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	0	13:18	1:52
I. Howard	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	10:17	1:02
D. Nurse	D	0	1	1	5	2	4	+1	2	18:38	0:50
E. Bouchard	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	25:43	7:48
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	+2	0	18:35	0:03
M. Ekholm	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	18:27	1:45
A. Regula	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	16:44	0:00
T. Emberson	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	13:20	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Pickard	15	14	1	.933	60:00	Win
S. Skinner	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

VAN

Line 1C. Garland13:17F. Chytil14:52E. Kane15:24

Line 2B. Boeser11:37E. Pettersson9:50J. DeBrusk9:03

Line 3J. Lekkerimäki9:38B. Cootes9:53D. O'Connor9:56

Line 4K. Sherwood8:58A. Räty8:30A. Bains9:03

Pair 1Q. Hughes19:49F. Hronek17:38

Pair 2T. Myers15:50M. Pettersson13:14

Pair 3E. Pettersson10:58D. Forbort9:20

EDM

Line 1L. Draisaitl13:41C. McDavid14:21T. Frederic13:02

Line 2K. Kapanen11:40N. Philp10:35V. Podkolzin10:34

Line 3R. Nugent-Hopkins9:43M. Savoie10:46A. Mangiapane9:44

Line 4A. Henrique8:46I. Howard9:15D. Tomasek7:52

Pair 1M. Ekholm14:08E. Bouchard15:14

Pair 2D. Nurse15:26A. Regula15:41

Pair 3B. Kulak14:29T. Emberson11:53

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamVasily Podkolzin EDM Faces VAN, his team until May 20241 A, 3 SOG
HometownJake DeBrusk VAN Plays in his hometown1 A, 2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VAN 2.9, EDM 3.4	VAN 1, EDM 3
Total goals	6.3	4
Shots on goal	VAN 24.3, EDM 29.8	VAN 15, EDM 37
Win chance	EDM 58%	EDM won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
EDM C. McDavid	3.5	3	1.79	1	40%	0
EDM L. Draisaitl	3.2	2	1.51	1	45%	1
EDM E. Bouchard	3.2	2	1.04	0	23%	0
VAN E. Kane	2.4	1	0.53	0	25%	0
VAN F. Chytil	2.3	1	0.48	0	19%	0
VAN Q. Hughes	2.2	0	0.86	1	14%	0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	2.1	2	0.83	0	24%	0
VAN C. Garland	2.0	3	0.58	0	21%	0
VAN B. Boeser	2.0	2	0.69	1	28%	1
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.0	2	0.54	1	24%	0
EDM D. Nurse	1.9	5	0.38	1	10%	0
VAN K. Sherwood	1.8	1	0.50	0	19%	0
EDM M. Ekholm	1.8	1	0.45	0	12%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	1.6	1	0.68	0	23%	0
EDM B. Kulak	1.4	0	0.31	0	8%	0
VAN D. O'Connor	1.4	0	0.31	0	13%	0
VAN F. Hronek	1.3	0	0.44	0	8%	0
EDM K. Kapanen	1.3	0	0.31	1	12%	0
EDM A. Henrique	1.3	2	0.39	0	18%	0
VAN J. Lekkerimäki	1.2	1	0.31	0	14%	0
VAN A. Räty	1.2	0	0.32	0	16%	0
EDM N. Philp	1.2	2	0.18	1	8%	1
EDM T. Frederic	1.2	4	0.30	0	14%	0
EDM M. Savoie	1.1	4	0.26	0	11%	0
EDM A. Mangiapane	1.1	1	0.34	1	15%	1
VAN T. Myers	1.1	1	0.25	0	5%	0
EDM A. Regula	1.1	1	0.14	0	6%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.1	3	0.27	1	10%	0
VAN M. Pettersson	0.8	0	0.29	0	4%	0
VAN A. Bains	0.6	0	0.15	0	9%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	0.6	1	0.11	0	4%	0
EDM T. Emberson	0.6	0	0.13	0	3%	0
VAN D. Forbort	0.5	1	0.13	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 33 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.