Game Recap: VAN 1, EDM 6, April 16, 2026

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

VAN1

FinalThu, Apr 16, 2026Every game that night

EDM6

EDM beat VAN 6-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.56 expected goals to 1.05. EDM outshot VAN 35 to 12. C. McDavid led the way with 4 points (0 G, 4 A). M. Savoie had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. C. Ingram stopped 11 of 12.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
VAN	1	0	0	1
EDM	4	1	1	6

1st 1:58EDMJ. Samanski0.10 xG
1st 6:48EDMM. Savoie0.13 xG
1st 12:10VANT. Mueller0.20 xG
1st 14:35EDMM. SavoiePP0.15 xG
1st 19:02EDMM. Savoie0.13 xG
2nd 16:46EDMR. Nugent-HopkinsPP0.27 xG
3rd 8:20EDMC. Dach0.19 xG

Team Stats

VANEDM

12Shots on goal35

1.05Expected goals4.56

28Shot attempts74

105v5 shots on goal24

0/1Power play2/3

14Hits21

19Blocked shots11

18Penalty minutes14

15Giveaways9

2Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VAN 1.05 xGEDM 4.56 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VAN11 on goal, 1 scored

EDM35 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Mueller	C	1	0	1	1	1	2	+1	0	12:59	0:00
C. Douglas	C	0	1	1	0	1	1	+1	0	12:00	0:00
L. Ohgren	LW	0	0	0	0	0	3	-2	0	18:19	0:18
B. Boeser	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	18:15	1:44
T. Blueger	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	2	16:27	0:00
L. Karlsson	C	0	0	0	2	0	2	-2	0	16:19	0:16
E. Pettersson	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	15:59	1:44
J. DeBrusk	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	15:11	1:02
A. Räty	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	+1	0	14:06	0:00
N. Hoglander	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	13:36	0:58
M. Rossi	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-2	0	13:15	1:42
D. O'Connor	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	5	11:15	0:00
F. Hronek	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	0	27:44	1:52
Z. Buium	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	4	21:38	0:08
M. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	19:06	0:00
K. Kudryavtsev	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	17:33	0:00
T. Willander	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-3	0	17:29	0:16
E. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	-2	7	14:53	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Lankinen	35	29	6	.829	60:00	Loss
N. Tolopilo	0	0	0	–	0:00

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. McDavid	C	0	4	4	3	0	0	+2	2	18:16	1:56
M. Savoie	C	3	0	3	6	0	0	+2	0	15:59	2:29
C. Dach	C	1	1	2	1	4	2	+2	5	13:42	0:00
Z. Hyman	LW	0	1	1	1	3	0	+1	0	18:11	3:56
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	1	0	1	4	0	0	+1	0	17:48	3:25
J. Samanski	C	1	0	1	1	1	2	+2	0	14:27	0:00
V. Podkolzin	RW	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	0	17:02	3:27
J. Roslovic	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	16:22	0:31
T. Frederic	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	+2	0	14:37	0:00
K. Kapanen	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	13:17	0:00
A. Henrique	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	2	12:23	0:00
C. Lazar	C	0	0	0	1	6	1	-1	0	10:14	0:00
E. Bouchard	D	0	3	3	2	0	1	+3	0	21:52	3:52
D. Nurse	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	+1	0	20:21	0:00
C. Murphy	D	0	1	1	2	1	1	+2	5	16:34	0:00
J. Walman	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	19:19	0:04
M. Ekholm	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	+2	0	19:01	0:00
T. Emberson	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	18:54	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Ingram	12	11	1	.917	59:41	Win
T. Jarry	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

VAN

Line 1T. Blueger15:36L. Ohgren15:45B. Boeser14:06

Line 2J. DeBrusk13:23E. Pettersson13:21L. Karlsson16:03

Line 3C. Douglas12:00T. Mueller12:59A. Räty13:01

Line 4D. O'Connor10:43M. Rossi11:33N. Hoglander12:38

Pair 1F. Hronek22:30Z. Buium21:30

Pair 2M. Pettersson15:34K. Kudryavtsev17:33

Pair 3T. Willander16:21E. Pettersson14:09

EDM

Line 1Z. Hyman13:56C. McDavid15:16M. Savoie13:11

Line 2J. Roslovic15:51V. Podkolzin13:35R. Nugent-Hopkins13:21

Line 3T. Frederic14:37C. Dach13:42J. Samanski13:12

Line 4A. Henrique12:23K. Kapanen12:02C. Lazar10:14

Pair 1J. Walman18:30T. Emberson18:09

Pair 2C. Murphy16:34D. Nurse19:23

Pair 3M. Ekholm17:25E. Bouchard17:24

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamVasily Podkolzin EDM Faces VAN, his team until May 20243 SOG
HometownJake DeBrusk VAN Plays in his hometown2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VAN 2.9, EDM 4.0	VAN 1, EDM 6
Total goals	6.9	7
Shots on goal	VAN 24.4, EDM 32.1	VAN 12, EDM 35
Win chance	EDM 66%	EDM won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
EDM C. McDavid	3.9	3	1.95	4	44%	0
EDM E. Bouchard	2.7	2	1.30	3	23%	0
EDM Z. Hyman	2.7	1	0.93	1	39%	0
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.4	2	0.53	0	26%	0
VAN B. Boeser	2.2	1	0.73	0	30%	0
EDM M. Savoie	2.2	6	0.63	3	22%	3
EDM J. Roslovic	2.2	1	0.71	0	25%	0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	2.1	4	0.94	1	27%	1
EDM D. Nurse	2.0	2	0.42	1	11%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	2.0	3	0.61	0	21%	0
VAN D. O'Connor	1.8	0	0.39	0	18%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	1.8	0	0.74	0	25%	0
VAN F. Hronek	1.7	1	0.59	0	9%	0
EDM K. Kapanen	1.6	1	0.46	0	16%	0
VAN L. Ohgren	1.5	0	0.36	0	15%	0
EDM M. Ekholm	1.5	0	0.57	0	11%	0
EDM J. Walman	1.5	3	0.39	0	11%	0
VAN L. Karlsson	1.5	2	0.43	0	17%	0
VAN M. Rossi	1.4	1	0.63	0	22%	0
EDM A. Henrique	1.4	0	0.36	0	16%	0
VAN T. Blueger	1.3	0	0.38	0	13%	0
EDM T. Frederic	1.3	1	0.27	0	14%	0
VAN N. Hoglander	1.1	0	0.30	0	14%	0
EDM C. Murphy	1.1	2	0.30	1	8%	0
VAN A. Räty	1.0	2	0.24	0	11%	0
VAN T. Willander	0.9	0	0.32	0	7%	0
VAN Z. Buium	0.9	0	0.29	0	6%	0
EDM C. Dach	0.9	1	0.22	2	9%	1
VAN M. Pettersson	0.8	0	0.29	0	4%	0
VAN C. Douglas	0.8	0	0.10	1	6%	0
EDM C. Lazar	0.7	1	0.19	0	8%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	0.6	1	0.14	0	4%	0
VAN T. Mueller	0.6	1	0.15	1	9%	1
EDM J. Samanski	0.6	1	0.22	1	11%	1
EDM T. Emberson	0.6	3	0.18	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.