Game Recap: VAN 6, EDM 5 (OT), September 29, 2026

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Game Recap

VAN6

Final/OTTue, Sep 29, 2026Every game that night

EDM5

VAN beat EDM 6-5 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 2.28 expected goals to 3.59. EDM outshot VAN 37 to 23. E. Bouchard scored three for EDM. V. Podkolzin had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. K. Lankinen stopped 32 of 37.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
VAN	1	1	3	1	6
EDM	1	1	3	0	5

1st 9:51VANP. CotterSH0.13 xG
1st 16:26EDME. Bouchard0.05 xG
2nd 2:07VANM. Rossi0.26 xG
2nd 14:34EDME. Bouchard0.21 xG
3rd 1:10VANJ. Lekkerimäki0.05 xG
3rd 2:55VANM. Sasson0.15 xG
3rd 5:15VANE. PetterssonPP0.11 xG
3rd 8:56EDMV. Podkolzin0.35 xG
3rd 9:20EDME. Bouchard0.02 xG
3rd 19:17EDMV. PodkolzinPP0.13 xG
OT 1:59VANP. Cotter0.46 xG

Team Stats

VANEDM

23Shots on goal37

2.28Expected goals3.59

43Shot attempts72

175v5 shots on goal31

1/2Power play1/4

13Hits38

21Blocked shots12

8Penalty minutes4

15Giveaways19

5Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VAN 2.28 xGEDM 3.59 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VAN23 on goal, 6 scored

EDM37 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Sasson	C	1	1	2	2	0	2	+1	2	16:37	0:00
P. Cotter	LW	2	0	2	3	2	0	+2	0	11:51	0:00
E. Pettersson	C	1	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	19:23	1:22
D. O'Connor	LW	0	1	1	3	2	2	-1	0	17:40	0:37
L. Ohgren	LW	0	1	1	1	1	1	-1	0	17:29	0:00
J. DeBrusk	LW	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	15:35	1:21
M. Rossi	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	-1	0	15:01	0:54
B. Boeser	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	-1	0	14:51	1:17
L. Karlsson	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	-1	2	13:37	0:38
J. Lekkerimäki	RW	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	12:36	0:00
B. Gallagher	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	10:54	0:00
A. Bains	LW	0	0	0	0	0	2	+1	0	10:52	0:00
F. Hronek	D	0	2	2	2	0	3	+2	0	25:08	0:53
J. Oleksiak	D	0	1	1	0	3	2	-3	0	23:38	0:00
Z. Buium	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+2	0	22:46	1:06
T. Willander	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	2	20:40	1:06
E. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	2	3	5	0	2	16:01	0:41
L. Schenn	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	0	14:25	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Lankinen	37	32	5	.865	61:43	Win
L. Meriläinen	0	0	0	–	0:00

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. McDavid	C	0	2	2	0	1	0	+1	0	22:51	5:20
V. Podkolzin	RW	2	0	2	7	5	0	-2	0	18:20	4:50
L. Draisaitl	C	0	1	1	5	0	0	-1	0	21:15	5:21
A. Formenton	LW	0	1	1	2	5	0	+3	0	15:09	0:00
Z. Hyman	LW	0	0	0	3	2	0	+1	0	20:33	5:04
K. Kapanen	RW	0	0	0	3	4	0	-2	2	17:55	1:50
M. Joseph	RW	0	0	0	0	5	1	-1	2	14:57	0:05
C. Dach	C	0	0	0	2	4	0	-1	0	14:49	0:24
M. Jones	LW	0	0	0	2	5	0	-1	0	12:18	0:00
I. Howard	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	11:06	1:44
T. Frederic	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	9:21	1:27
O. Michaels	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	8:22	0:00
E. Bouchard	D	3	2	5	6	1	3	+2	0	25:41	5:17
R. Shea	D	0	1	1	0	1	0	-1	0	22:41	2:05
M. Ekholm	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	+2	0	20:56	0:00
C. Murphy	D	0	0	0	2	0	4	-1	0	18:29	0:02
J. Walman	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	16:25	1:37
S. Mukhamadullin	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	13:03	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
T. Jarry	23	17	6	.739	61:33	OT loss
D. Levi	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

VAN

Line 1D. O'Connor15:14M. Sasson14:12L. Karlsson12:43

Line 2J. DeBrusk13:34E. Pettersson14:51J. Lekkerimäki12:36

Line 3B. Boeser13:18L. Ohgren13:14M. Rossi12:41

Line 4B. Gallagher10:01P. Cotter9:38A. Bains8:55

Pair 1F. Hronek18:33Z. Buium20:27

Pair 2J. Oleksiak18:51T. Willander18:32

Pair 3L. Schenn12:02E. Pettersson13:33

EDM

Line 1Z. Hyman14:15C. McDavid15:22A. Formenton13:54

Line 2L. Draisaitl14:40K. Kapanen15:13V. Podkolzin13:30

Line 3C. Dach13:28M. Joseph13:32M. Jones12:18

Line 4T. Frederic7:54I. Howard9:22O. Michaels8:09

Pair 1M. Ekholm19:19E. Bouchard19:35

Pair 2R. Shea18:13S. Mukhamadullin13:03

Pair 3C. Murphy16:57J. Walman14:11

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

8 of 14 overs hit (57%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
EDM C. McDavid	3.5	-110	-105	0	Under
EDM E. Bouchard	2.5	-130	+115	6	Over
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.5	+120	-155	0	Under
EDM J. Walman	2.5	+140	-190	1	Under
EDM L. Draisaitl	2.5	-146	+120	5	Over
EDM V. Podkolzin	2.5	+128	-155	7	Over
EDM Z. Hyman	2.5	-130	+110	3	Over
VAN B. Boeser	1.5	-190	+150	1	Under
EDM C. Murphy	1.5	-115	-115	2	Over
VAN F. Hronek	1.5	-108	-115	2	Over
EDM I. Howard	1.5	-155	+120	1	Under
EDM K. Kapanen	1.5	-155	+135	3	Over
VAN M. Rossi	1.5	-110	-113	1	Under
VAN Z. Buium	0.5	-460	–	1	Over

6 of 32 overs hit (19%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
VAN A. Bains	0.5	+1250	-1600	0	Under
VAN B. Boeser	0.5	+250	-360	0	Under
VAN B. Gallagher	0.5	+950	-2500	0	Under
EDM C. Dach	0.5	+800	-1200	0	Under
EDM C. McDavid	0.5	+115	-125	0	Under
EDM C. Murphy	0.5	+1100	-2000	0	Under
VAN D. O'Connor	0.5	+525	-900	0	Under
EDM E. Bouchard	0.5	+300	-400	3	Over
VAN F. Hronek	0.5	+625	-1400	0	Under
EDM I. Howard	0.5	+350	-475	0	Under
VAN J. DeBrusk	0.5	+290	-450	0	Under
VAN J. Lekkerimäki	0.5	+450	-800	1	Over
VAN J. Oleksiak	0.5	+2500	-3500	0	Under
EDM J. Walman	0.5	+650	-1200	0	Under
EDM K. Kapanen	0.5	+360	-400	0	Under
EDM L. Draisaitl	0.5	+100	-130	0	Under
VAN L. Karlsson	0.5	+425	-750	0	Under
VAN L. Ohgren	0.5	+525	-900	0	Under
VAN L. Schenn	0.5	+2800	-4000	0	Under
EDM M. Ekholm	0.5	+850	-1400	0	Under
EDM M. Jones	0.5	+575	–	0	Under
EDM M. Joseph	0.5	+850	-1400	0	Under
VAN M. Rossi	0.5	+390	-600	1	Over
VAN M. Sasson	0.5	+600	-1000	1	Over
VAN P. Cotter	0.5	+1100	-2800	2	Over
EDM R. Shea	0.5	+1100	-5000	0	Under
EDM S. Mukhamadullin	0.5	+1500	–	0	Under
EDM T. Frederic	0.5	+700	-700	0	Under
VAN T. Willander	0.5	+1000	-3500	0	Under
EDM V. Podkolzin	0.5	+225	-270	2	Over
VAN Z. Buium	0.5	+1100	-5000	0	Under
EDM Z. Hyman	0.5	+160	-180	0	Under

7 of 15 overs hit (47%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
VAN B. Boeser	0.5	+190	-245	1	Over
EDM C. McDavid	0.5	-230	+170	2	Over
EDM E. Bouchard	0.5	-200	+145	2	Over
VAN F. Hronek	0.5	+120	-160	2	Over
EDM I. Howard	0.5	+300	-380	0	Under
VAN J. DeBrusk	0.5	+300	-550	1	Over
EDM J. Walman	0.5	+210	-250	0	Under
EDM K. Kapanen	0.5	+300	-425	0	Under
EDM L. Draisaitl	0.5	-145	+130	1	Over
VAN L. Ohgren	0.5	+320	-650	1	Over
EDM M. Ekholm	0.5	+180	-235	0	Under
VAN M. Rossi	0.5	+164	-215	0	Under
EDM V. Podkolzin	0.5	+140	-165	0	Under
VAN Z. Buium	0.5	+280	-390	0	Under
EDM Z. Hyman	0.5	+186	-250	0	Under

8 of 15 overs hit (53%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
EDM C. McDavid	1.5	-125	-105	2	Over
EDM E. Bouchard	1.5	+160	-200	5	Over
EDM L. Draisaitl	1.5	+120	-150	1	Under
VAN B. Boeser	0.5	-110	-115	1	Over
VAN F. Hronek	0.5	+100	-120	2	Over
EDM I. Howard	0.5	+145	-175	0	Under
VAN J. DeBrusk	0.5	+120	-150	1	Over
EDM J. Walman	0.5	+145	-175	0	Under
EDM K. Kapanen	0.5	+140	-155	0	Under
VAN L. Ohgren	0.5	+200	-280	1	Over
EDM M. Ekholm	0.5	+130	-155	0	Under
VAN M. Rossi	0.5	+100	-130	1	Over
EDM V. Podkolzin	0.5	-150	+125	2	Over
VAN Z. Buium	0.5	+195	-265	0	Under
EDM Z. Hyman	0.5	-145	+115	0	Under

5 of 11 overs hit (45%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
VAN B. Boeser	0.5	+290	-500	1	Over
EDM C. McDavid	0.5	-125	+110	0	Under
EDM E. Bouchard	0.5	+100	-115	1	Over
VAN F. Hronek	0.5	+230	-375	1	Over
EDM I. Howard	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
VAN J. DeBrusk	0.5	+350	-600	0	Under
EDM K. Kapanen	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
EDM L. Draisaitl	0.5	+105	-115	1	Over
VAN M. Rossi	0.5	+280	-425	0	Under
EDM V. Podkolzin	0.5	+165	-250	1	Over
EDM Z. Hyman	0.5	+290	-550	0	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
VAN K. Lankinen	27.5	-102	-115	32	Over
EDM T. Jarry	20.5	-125	-102	17	Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

HometownBrendan Gallagher VAN Plays in his hometown1 SOG
HometownJake DeBrusk VAN Plays in his hometown1 A, 0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VAN 2.9, EDM 4.0	VAN 6, EDM 5
Total goals	6.9	11
Shots on goal	VAN 24.5, EDM 31.9	VAN 23, EDM 37
Win chance	EDM 66%	VAN won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
EDM C. McDavid	3.8	0	1.84	2	41%	0
EDM L. Draisaitl	3.0	5	1.64	1	44%	0
EDM Z. Hyman	2.6	3	0.85	0	37%	0
EDM E. Bouchard	2.5	6	1.25	5	21%	3
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.4	0	0.54	1	25%	0
EDM A. Formenton	2.3	2	0.50	1	22%	0
VAN B. Boeser	2.2	1	0.71	1	29%	0
EDM K. Kapanen	2.0	3	0.55	0	19%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.9	7	0.56	2	19%	2
VAN E. Pettersson	1.7	1	0.70	1	24%	1
VAN D. O'Connor	1.7	3	0.35	1	16%	0
EDM J. Walman	1.6	1	0.43	0	11%	0
VAN F. Hronek	1.6	2	0.57	2	8%	0
VAN L. Karlsson	1.6	2	0.46	1	17%	0
VAN L. Ohgren	1.6	1	0.36	1	15%	0
EDM I. Howard	1.4	1	0.26	0	11%	0
EDM M. Ekholm	1.4	2	0.54	0	10%	0
VAN M. Rossi	1.4	1	0.57	1	20%	1
EDM C. Murphy	1.2	2	0.32	0	8%	0
EDM T. Frederic	1.1	1	0.22	0	12%	0
EDM S. Mukhamadullin	1.1	0	0.33	0	9%	0
VAN J. Lekkerimäki	1.0	1	0.25	1	12%	1
VAN B. Gallagher	1.0	1	0.23	0	10%	0
VAN M. Sasson	1.0	2	0.29	2	15%	1
VAN Z. Buium	0.9	1	0.33	0	7%	0
EDM M. Jones	0.9	2	0.20	0	8%	0
VAN T. Willander	0.9	0	0.30	0	6%	0
EDM R. Shea	0.8	0	0.40	1	7%	0
VAN J. Oleksiak	0.8	0	0.19	1	4%	0
EDM C. Dach	0.8	2	0.23	0	8%	0
VAN P. Cotter	0.7	3	0.19	2	11%	2
EDM M. Joseph	0.7	0	0.22	0	7%	0
VAN A. Bains	0.6	0	0.14	0	7%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	0.6	2	0.14	0	4%	0
VAN L. Schenn	0.5	2	0.09	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.