Game Recap: VAN 2, EDM 4, November 7, 2026

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Game Recap

VAN2

FinalSat, Nov 7, 2026Every game that night

EDM4

EDM beat VAN 4-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.20 expected goals to 2.05. EDM outshot VAN 30 to 22. L. Draisaitl led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). L. Draisaitl had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 3.2. D. Levi stopped 20 of 22.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
VAN	1	0	1	2
EDM	1	0	3	4

1st 9:14EDMM. Ekholm0.16 xG
1st 19:51VANM. Sasson0.07 xG
3rd 0:49EDMJ. Dickinson0.11 xG
3rd 4:00EDML. DraisaitlPP0.13 xG
3rd 17:25VANB. Boeser0.07 xG
3rd 19:15EDML. DraisaitlEN0.94 xG

Team Stats

VANEDM

22Shots on goal30

2.05Expected goals3.20

44Shot attempts49

155v5 shots on goal22

0/2Power play1/3

30Hits22

10Blocked shots9

6Penalty minutes6

12Giveaways16

3Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VAN 2.05 xGEDM 3.20 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VAN22 on goal, 2 scored

EDM29 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
E. Pettersson	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	-1	0	21:54	1:39
B. Boeser	RW	1	0	1	2	1	3	-1	0	20:21	1:23
M. Sasson	C	1	0	1	2	2	1	+1	0	14:22	0:18
J. DeBrusk	LW	0	0	0	2	4	0	-1	0	16:13	1:38
J. Lekkerimäki	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	15:47	1:38
D. O'Connor	LW	0	0	0	4	3	0	+1	0	14:29	0:01
P. Cotter	LW	0	0	0	1	5	0	-1	0	14:25	1:04
M. Rossi	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	13:56	1:15
A. Bains	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	2	13:06	0:00
L. Karlsson	C	0	0	0	3	2	0	+1	0	12:26	0:57
B. Gallagher	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	4	11:22	0:00
L. Ohgren	LW	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	11:20	1:04
F. Hronek	D	0	1	1	1	2	1	-1	0	29:50	1:26
G. Brisebois	D	0	1	1	1	1	2	+1	0	17:17	0:35
J. Oleksiak	D	0	1	1	1	4	0	0	0	15:25	0:00
Z. Buium	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	0	26:03	1:27
E. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	15:22	0:00
L. Schenn	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	11:23	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Meriläinen	29	26	3	.897	58:00	Loss
K. Lankinen	0	0	0	–	0:00

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. McDavid	C	0	3	3	3	0	1	+1	0	25:15	3:28
L. Draisaitl	C	2	1	3	7	0	0	+1	2	24:28	3:46
Z. Hyman	LW	0	1	1	2	0	0	-1	0	20:56	3:44
J. Dickinson	C	1	0	1	3	3	0	+1	0	14:56	0:08
M. Joseph	RW	0	1	1	1	3	0	+1	0	13:21	0:06
V. Podkolzin	RW	0	0	0	1	3	0	+1	0	17:41	0:00
K. Kapanen	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	17:32	1:52
A. Formenton	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	+1	0	11:58	0:04
O. Michaels	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	9:57	0:00
M. Jones	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	6:58	0:00
T. Frederic	C	0	0	0	3	4	0	0	0	6:52	0:00
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	6:38	1:56
E. Bouchard	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	24:30	3:42
M. Ekholm	D	1	0	1	1	2	1	+1	0	21:10	0:24
T. Emberson	D	0	1	1	3	1	0	+1	0	13:56	0:00
R. Shea	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	21:52	0:10
C. Murphy	D	0	0	0	3	0	2	-1	2	21:12	0:00
S. Mukhamadullin	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	14:48	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Levi	22	20	2	.909	60:00	Win
T. Jarry	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

VAN

Line 1E. Pettersson14:40A. Bains13:06B. Boeser13:31

Line 2D. O'Connor13:17M. Sasson12:12L. Karlsson11:29

Line 3J. DeBrusk10:59J. Lekkerimäki12:09P. Cotter10:59

Line 4B. Gallagher11:22L. Ohgren10:16M. Rossi10:41

Pair 1Z. Buium22:18F. Hronek22:41

Pair 2L. Schenn11:23E. Pettersson14:20

Pair 3J. Oleksiak13:17G. Brisebois12:00

EDM

Line 1L. Draisaitl17:24C. McDavid17:06V. Podkolzin16:45

Line 2J. Dickinson13:25A. Formenton11:04M. Joseph12:02

Line 3T. Frederic6:52M. Jones6:58O. Michaels9:10

Line 4Z. Hyman14:04K. Kapanen13:58R. Nugent-Hopkins4:42

Pair 1M. Ekholm17:29E. Bouchard18:19

Pair 2C. Murphy17:19R. Shea17:02

Pair 3T. Emberson13:50S. Mukhamadullin13:11

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

8 of 19 overs hit (42%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
EDM C. McDavid	3.5	+120	-135	3	Under
EDM L. Draisaitl	3.5	+120	-145	7	Over
EDM E. Bouchard	2.5	-140	+120	1	Under
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.5	+115	-140	2	Under
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	2.5	+138	-160	0	Under
EDM Z. Hyman	2.5	+110	-128	2	Under
EDM A. Formenton	1.5	+125	-165	0	Under
VAN B. Boeser	1.5	-140	+125	2	Over
VAN B. Gallagher	1.5	-105	–	1	Under
EDM C. Murphy	1.5	+175	-210	3	Over
VAN D. O'Connor	1.5	+105	–	4	Over
VAN F. Hronek	1.5	+107	-135	1	Under
EDM J. Dickinson	1.5	+120	–	3	Over
VAN J. Lekkerimäki	1.5	-110	-115	2	Over
EDM K. Kapanen	1.5	-145	+125	2	Over
VAN L. Karlsson	1.5	-125	–	3	Over
EDM M. Ekholm	1.5	-110	-115	1	Under
VAN M. Rossi	1.5	+130	-145	1	Under
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.5	-140	+130	1	Under

5 of 34 overs hit (15%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
VAN A. Bains	0.5	+850	-1600	0	Under
EDM A. Formenton	0.5	+550	-800	0	Under
VAN B. Boeser	0.5	+250	-390	1	Over
VAN B. Gallagher	0.5	+1000	-2000	0	Under
EDM C. McDavid	0.5	-105	-110	0	Under
EDM C. Murphy	0.5	+1500	-5000	0	Under
VAN D. O'Connor	0.5	+575	-900	0	Under
EDM E. Bouchard	0.5	+210	-275	0	Under
VAN E. Pettersson	0.5	+1400	–	0	Under
VAN F. Hronek	0.5	+850	-1400	0	Under
VAN G. Brisebois	0.5	+1500	-2800	0	Under
VAN J. DeBrusk	0.5	+240	-370	0	Under
EDM J. Dickinson	0.5	+575	-800	1	Over
VAN J. Lekkerimäki	0.5	+340	-500	0	Under
VAN J. Oleksiak	0.5	+2000	-4000	0	Under
EDM K. Kapanen	0.5	+260	-300	0	Under
EDM L. Draisaitl	0.5	-127	+110	2	Over
VAN L. Karlsson	0.5	+450	-750	0	Under
VAN L. Ohgren	0.5	+550	-700	0	Under
EDM M. Ekholm	0.5	+750	-1400	1	Over
EDM M. Jones	0.5	+600	-900	0	Under
EDM M. Joseph	0.5	+650	-900	0	Under
VAN M. Rossi	0.5	+490	-750	0	Under
VAN M. Sasson	0.5	+750	-1000	1	Over
EDM O. Michaels	0.5	+600	-1000	0	Under
VAN P. Cotter	0.5	+600	-1400	0	Under
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	0.5	+200	-240	0	Under
EDM R. Shea	0.5	+875	-2000	0	Under
EDM S. Mukhamadullin	0.5	+1100	-2500	0	Under
EDM T. Emberson	0.5	+2200	-3500	0	Under
EDM T. Frederic	0.5	+700	-800	0	Under
EDM V. Podkolzin	0.5	+250	-390	0	Under
VAN Z. Buium	0.5	+1600	-2000	0	Under
EDM Z. Hyman	0.5	+170	-210	0	Under

5 of 17 overs hit (29%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
EDM C. McDavid	1.5	+124	-160	3	Over
VAN B. Boeser	0.5	+176	-220	0	Under
EDM C. Murphy	0.5	+230	-320	0	Under
EDM E. Bouchard	0.5	-225	+180	1	Over
VAN F. Hronek	0.5	+138	-145	1	Over
VAN J. DeBrusk	0.5	+225	-280	0	Under
EDM J. Dickinson	0.5	+350	-525	0	Under
VAN J. Lekkerimäki	0.5	+230	-295	0	Under
EDM K. Kapanen	0.5	+210	-275	0	Under
EDM L. Draisaitl	0.5	-210	+175	1	Over
EDM M. Ekholm	0.5	+165	-210	0	Under
VAN M. Rossi	0.5	+250	-350	0	Under
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	0.5	+110	-135	0	Under
EDM R. Shea	0.5	+175	-220	0	Under
EDM V. Podkolzin	0.5	+200	-200	0	Under
VAN Z. Buium	0.5	+260	-325	0	Under
EDM Z. Hyman	0.5	+160	-190	1	Over

7 of 17 overs hit (41%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
EDM C. McDavid	1.5	-175	+145	3	Over
EDM E. Bouchard	1.5	+120	-145	1	Under
EDM L. Draisaitl	1.5	-130	+115	3	Over
VAN B. Boeser	0.5	-110	-105	1	Over
EDM C. Murphy	0.5	+195	-270	0	Under
VAN F. Hronek	0.5	+108	-115	1	Over
VAN J. DeBrusk	0.5	+105	-115	0	Under
EDM J. Dickinson	0.5	+205	-280	1	Over
VAN J. Lekkerimäki	0.5	+120	-132	0	Under
EDM K. Kapanen	0.5	+115	-130	0	Under
EDM M. Ekholm	0.5	+135	-160	1	Over
VAN M. Rossi	0.5	+145	-180	0	Under
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	0.5	-185	+160	0	Under
EDM R. Shea	0.5	+140	-175	0	Under
EDM V. Podkolzin	0.5	-105	+105	0	Under
VAN Z. Buium	0.5	+225	-295	0	Under
EDM Z. Hyman	0.5	-160	+130	1	Over

3 of 14 overs hit (21%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
VAN B. Boeser	0.5	+280	-325	0	Under
EDM C. McDavid	0.5	-125	+105	1	Over
EDM E. Bouchard	0.5	+120	-130	1	Over
VAN F. Hronek	0.5	+220	-295	0	Under
VAN J. DeBrusk	0.5	+310	-375	0	Under
VAN J. Lekkerimäki	0.5	+425	-500	0	Under
EDM L. Draisaitl	0.5	-115	-115	1	Over
VAN L. Karlsson	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
VAN L. Ohgren	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
VAN M. Rossi	0.5	+390	-1000	0	Under
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	0.5	+150	-190	0	Under
EDM V. Podkolzin	0.5	+425	-650	0	Under
VAN Z. Buium	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
EDM Z. Hyman	0.5	+170	-235	0	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
VAN L. Meriläinen	25.5	-118	-105	26	Over
EDM D. Levi	21.5	-103	-120	20	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
EDM C. Murphy	1.5	-120	-120	2	Over
VAN F. Hronek	1.5	-115	-120	1	Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

HometownBrendan Gallagher VAN Plays in his hometown1 SOG
HometownJake DeBrusk VAN Plays in his hometown2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VAN 2.8, EDM 4.1	VAN 2, EDM 4
Total goals	7.0	6
Shots on goal	VAN 23.0, EDM 30.7	VAN 22, EDM 30
Win chance	EDM 69%	EDM won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
EDM C. McDavid	3.5	3	2.05	3	44%	0
EDM L. Draisaitl	3.2	7	1.81	3	48%	2
EDM E. Bouchard	2.6	1	1.45	1	24%	0
EDM Z. Hyman	2.5	2	0.92	1	39%	0
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.4	2	0.60	0	29%	0
EDM K. Kapanen	2.1	2	0.71	0	24%	0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	2.1	0	0.99	0	28%	0
VAN B. Boeser	1.9	2	0.64	1	26%	1
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.7	1	0.56	0	22%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	1.7	0	0.76	1	24%	0
VAN J. Lekkerimäki	1.6	2	0.49	0	17%	0
VAN L. Karlsson	1.5	3	0.48	0	19%	0
VAN F. Hronek	1.5	1	0.56	1	8%	0
VAN D. O'Connor	1.5	4	0.35	0	17%	0
EDM M. Ekholm	1.4	1	0.61	1	11%	1
EDM A. Formenton	1.4	0	0.38	0	17%	0
VAN L. Ohgren	1.3	0	0.36	0	15%	0
VAN M. Rossi	1.3	1	0.46	0	16%	0
VAN B. Gallagher	1.2	1	0.28	0	13%	0
EDM M. Jones	1.2	0	0.30	0	13%	0
EDM C. Murphy	1.1	3	0.29	0	6%	0
VAN G. Brisebois	1.0	1	0.18	1	5%	0
EDM T. Frederic	1.0	3	0.22	0	11%	0
EDM J. Dickinson	1.0	3	0.33	1	13%	1
EDM R. Shea	1.0	0	0.51	0	8%	0
EDM M. Joseph	1.0	1	0.36	1	11%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	0.9	0	0.20	0	5%	0
VAN M. Sasson	0.9	2	0.26	1	13%	1
VAN Z. Buium	0.9	1	0.31	0	6%	0
EDM O. Michaels	0.9	0	0.26	0	8%	0
VAN P. Cotter	0.8	1	0.28	0	14%	0
EDM S. Mukhamadullin	0.8	0	0.22	0	4%	0
VAN J. Oleksiak	0.7	1	0.17	1	4%	0
EDM T. Emberson	0.6	3	0.17	1	2%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.