Game Recap: VAN 2, FLA 3 (OT), October 15, 2026

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Game Recap

VAN2

Final/OTThu, Oct 15, 2026Every game that night

FLA3

FLA beat VAN 3-2 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 3.70 expected goals to 2.55. FLA outshot VAN 39 to 18. B. Tkachuk scored three for FLA. S. Bennett had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.7. A. Schmid stopped 16 of 18.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
VAN	2	0	0	0	2
FLA	0	0	2	1	3

1st 7:23VANL. Ohgren0.17 xG
1st 17:06VANE. Pettersson0.24 xG
3rd 11:11FLAB. Tkachuk0.02 xG
3rd 19:47FLAB. Tkachuk0.09 xG
OT 2:23FLAB. Tkachuk0.17 xG

Team Stats

VANFLA

18Shots on goal39

2.55Expected goals3.70

37Shot attempts72

145v5 shots on goal30

0/3Power play0/2

15Hits21

20Blocked shots7

6Penalty minutes8

20Giveaways15

2Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VAN 2.55 xGFLA 3.70 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VAN17 on goal, 2 scored

FLA39 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Boeser	RW	0	1	1	1	0	2	0	0	22:18	4:56
F. Chytil	C	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	18:30	1:04
L. Ohgren	LW	1	0	1	1	1	1	+1	0	14:15	1:25
L. Karlsson	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	0	10:38	1:04
E. Pettersson	C	0	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	21:36	4:33
J. Lekkerimäki	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	2	17:42	4:35
J. DeBrusk	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	16:53	4:33
P. Cotter	LW	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	15:39	0:00
M. Rossi	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	13:35	1:27
D. O'Connor	LW	0	0	0	0	1	2	-2	0	13:06	0:00
M. Sasson	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-2	2	11:40	0:00
B. Gallagher	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	8:34	0:00
E. Pettersson	D	1	0	1	2	2	2	0	0	22:35	0:00
F. Hronek	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	28:38	4:23
Z. Buium	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	19:24	2:00
T. Willander	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	0	17:10	0:00
J. Oleksiak	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	2	15:26	0:00
V. Mancini	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	13:30	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Meriläinen	39	36	3	.923	62:23	OT loss
K. Lankinen	0	0	0	–	0:00

FLA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Tkachuk	LW	3	0	3	6	2	0	+3	0	19:59	3:12
S. Reinhart	C	0	1	1	5	1	0	+1	0	22:17	3:09
M. Tkachuk	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+2	0	21:59	3:07
C. Verhaeghe	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	19:55	3:09
S. Bennett	C	0	0	0	6	2	0	+2	0	19:55	0:51
L. Eller	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	17:10	0:50
A. Lundell	C	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	0	16:14	0:51
E. Luostarinen	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	13:56	0:48
S. Vilmanis	LW	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	12:47	0:00
G. Hathaway	RW	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	2	9:47	0:00
S. Lafferty	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	5:37	0:00
B. Imama	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	2	5:30	0:00
S. Jones	D	0	2	2	5	0	0	+2	0	26:16	2:23
A. Ekblad	D	0	1	1	3	2	2	0	0	22:21	0:52
G. Forsling	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	23:15	0:46
N. Mikkola	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	2	20:56	0:02
D. Kulikov	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	12:26	0:00
U. Balinskis	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	11:08	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Schmid	18	16	2	.889	60:04	Win
C. Black	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

VAN

Line 1B. Boeser13:21F. Chytil13:20P. Cotter13:28

Line 2E. Pettersson12:39J. Lekkerimäki13:07J. DeBrusk10:40

Line 3M. Rossi11:21L. Ohgren12:03L. Karlsson9:34

Line 4B. Gallagher8:34M. Sasson9:41D. O'Connor9:18

Pair 1F. Hronek18:20E. Pettersson17:11

Pair 2J. Oleksiak14:00T. Willander15:23

Pair 3V. Mancini12:12Z. Buium14:13

FLA

Line 1S. Bennett14:36M. Tkachuk13:54B. Tkachuk13:23

Line 2C. Verhaeghe13:37S. Reinhart13:36L. Eller12:30

Line 3S. Vilmanis12:47A. Lundell12:55E. Luostarinen11:56

Line 4G. Hathaway6:27S. Lafferty5:37B. Imama5:30

Pair 1G. Forsling19:29A. Ekblad17:38

Pair 2S. Jones15:30N. Mikkola16:36

Pair 3D. Kulikov11:16U. Balinskis11:08

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

7 of 15 overs hit (47%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
FLA B. Tkachuk	3.5	+114	-130	6	Over
FLA C. Verhaeghe	2.5	-108	+100	1	Under
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.5	+125	-150	2	Under
FLA M. Tkachuk	2.5	-140	+110	1	Under
FLA S. Bennett	2.5	-110	-105	6	Over
FLA S. Reinhart	2.5	-102	-120	5	Over
FLA A. Lundell	1.5	-178	+136	4	Over
VAN B. Boeser	1.5	-118	+110	1	Under
VAN F. Chytil	1.5	-135	+105	0	Under
VAN F. Hronek	1.5	+100	-115	1	Under
FLA G. Forsling	1.5	+115	-125	2	Over
VAN J. Lekkerimäki	1.5	+105	-135	2	Over
VAN L. Karlsson	1.5	+115	-125	0	Under
VAN M. Rossi	1.5	-102	–	1	Under
FLA S. Jones	1.5	-168	+135	5	Over

2 of 34 overs hit (6%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
FLA A. Ekblad	0.5	+750	-1600	0	Under
FLA A. Lundell	0.5	+275	-370	0	Under
VAN B. Boeser	0.5	+300	-440	0	Under
VAN B. Gallagher	0.5	+1100	-2500	0	Under
FLA B. Imama	0.5	+1000	-2800	0	Under
FLA B. Tkachuk	0.5	+155	-175	3	Over
FLA C. Verhaeghe	0.5	+200	-240	0	Under
FLA D. Kulikov	0.5	+1900	-5000	0	Under
VAN D. O'Connor	0.5	+850	-2000	0	Under
FLA E. Luostarinen	0.5	+350	-600	0	Under
VAN F. Chytil	0.5	+550	-700	0	Under
VAN F. Hronek	0.5	+800	-1600	0	Under
FLA G. Forsling	0.5	+900	-2500	0	Under
FLA G. Hathaway	0.5	+900	-1400	0	Under
VAN J. DeBrusk	0.5	+260	-350	0	Under
VAN J. Lekkerimäki	0.5	+440	-550	0	Under
VAN J. Oleksiak	0.5	+2500	-2800	0	Under
FLA L. Eller	0.5	+500	-900	0	Under
VAN L. Karlsson	0.5	+575	-800	0	Under
VAN L. Ohgren	0.5	+700	-1000	1	Over
VAN M. Rossi	0.5	+460	-700	0	Under
VAN M. Sasson	0.5	+950	-2500	0	Under
FLA M. Tkachuk	0.5	+155	-185	0	Under
FLA N. Mikkola	0.5	+1300	-2800	0	Under
VAN P. Cotter	0.5	+700	-2000	0	Under
FLA S. Bennett	0.5	+205	-240	0	Under
FLA S. Jones	0.5	+470	-900	0	Under
FLA S. Lafferty	0.5	+850	-2500	0	Under
FLA S. Reinhart	0.5	+145	-170	0	Under
FLA S. Vilmanis	0.5	+550	-1200	0	Under
VAN T. Willander	0.5	+1600	-2800	0	Under
FLA U. Balinskis	0.5	+1100	-2800	0	Under
VAN V. Mancini	0.5	+1600	-4000	0	Under
VAN Z. Buium	0.5	+1300	-3500	0	Under

7 of 22 overs hit (32%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
FLA A. Ekblad	0.5	+190	-225	1	Over
FLA A. Lundell	0.5	+186	-200	0	Under
VAN B. Boeser	0.5	+235	-275	1	Over
FLA B. Tkachuk	0.5	+130	-140	0	Under
FLA C. Verhaeghe	0.5	+145	-155	1	Over
FLA E. Luostarinen	0.5	+320	-450	0	Under
VAN F. Hronek	0.5	+130	-160	0	Under
FLA G. Forsling	0.5	+255	-360	0	Under
VAN J. DeBrusk	0.5	+240	-330	0	Under
VAN J. Lekkerimäki	0.5	+255	-300	0	Under
VAN J. Oleksiak	0.5	+650	–	0	Under
VAN L. Karlsson	0.5	+300	-425	1	Over
VAN L. Ohgren	0.5	+285	-400	0	Under
VAN M. Rossi	0.5	+270	-350	0	Under
FLA M. Tkachuk	0.5	-135	+115	1	Over
FLA N. Mikkola	0.5	+475	-750	0	Under
VAN P. Cotter	0.5	+370	-550	0	Under
FLA S. Bennett	0.5	+150	-200	0	Under
FLA S. Jones	0.5	+125	-125	2	Over
FLA S. Reinhart	0.5	+135	-165	1	Over
FLA S. Vilmanis	0.5	+400	-650	0	Under
VAN T. Willander	0.5	+280	-350	0	Under

8 of 21 overs hit (38%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
FLA M. Tkachuk	1.5	+155	-190	1	Under
FLA A. Ekblad	0.5	+145	-175	1	Over
FLA A. Lundell	0.5	-113	-105	0	Under
VAN B. Boeser	0.5	+114	-130	1	Over
FLA B. Tkachuk	0.5	-185	+160	3	Over
FLA C. Verhaeghe	0.5	-150	+135	1	Over
FLA E. Luostarinen	0.5	+150	-180	0	Under
VAN F. Hronek	0.5	+100	-125	0	Under
FLA G. Forsling	0.5	+190	-260	0	Under
VAN J. DeBrusk	0.5	+115	-145	0	Under
VAN J. Lekkerimäki	0.5	+135	-160	0	Under
VAN J. Oleksiak	0.5	+475	–	0	Under
VAN L. Karlsson	0.5	+180	-215	1	Over
VAN L. Ohgren	0.5	+195	-265	1	Over
VAN M. Rossi	0.5	+160	-190	0	Under
FLA N. Mikkola	0.5	+350	-500	0	Under
VAN P. Cotter	0.5	+195	-270	0	Under
FLA S. Bennett	0.5	-145	+120	0	Under
FLA S. Jones	0.5	-110	+110	2	Over
FLA S. Reinhart	0.5	-195	+165	1	Over
FLA S. Vilmanis	0.5	+210	-290	0	Under

0 of 17 overs hit (0%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	Result
FLA A. Ekblad	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
FLA A. Lundell	0.5	+390	-1000	Under
VAN B. Boeser	0.5	+300	-525	Under
FLA B. Tkachuk	0.5	+275	-280	Under
FLA C. Verhaeghe	0.5	+250	-290	Under
FLA E. Luostarinen	0.5	+500	-900	Under
VAN F. Chytil	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
VAN F. Hronek	0.5	+375	-425	Under
VAN J. DeBrusk	0.5	+340	-600	Under
VAN J. Lekkerimäki	0.5	+340	-750	Under
VAN L. Karlsson	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
VAN M. Rossi	0.5	+475	-550	Under
FLA M. Tkachuk	0.5	+135	-165	Under
FLA S. Bennett	0.5	+340	-550	Under
FLA S. Jones	0.5	+300	-300	Under
FLA S. Reinhart	0.5	+230	-260	Under
VAN T. Willander	0.5	+500	-1600	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
FLA A. Schmid	20.5	-110	-120	16	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
VAN F. Hronek	1.5	-145	–	2	Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VAN 2.7, FLA 3.5	VAN 2, FLA 3
Total goals	6.3	5
Shots on goal	VAN 23.7, FLA 29.8	VAN 18, FLA 39
Win chance	FLA 63%	FLA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
FLA B. Tkachuk	3.6	6	0.97	3	33%	3
FLA M. Tkachuk	2.8	1	1.30	1	35%	0
FLA S. Bennett	2.7	6	0.90	0	32%	0
FLA S. Reinhart	2.7	5	1.09	1	40%	0
FLA C. Verhaeghe	2.6	1	0.97	1	34%	0
FLA A. Lundell	2.3	4	0.77	0	24%	0
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.2	2	0.53	0	24%	0
FLA S. Jones	1.8	5	0.70	2	14%	0
VAN F. Hronek	1.7	1	0.58	0	8%	0
VAN B. Boeser	1.6	1	0.59	1	24%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	1.6	0	0.73	0	24%	0
FLA L. Eller	1.6	2	0.45	0	17%	0
VAN L. Karlsson	1.6	0	0.49	1	17%	0
FLA E. Luostarinen	1.6	0	0.58	0	19%	0
FLA G. Forsling	1.5	2	0.42	0	10%	0
FLA A. Ekblad	1.4	3	0.54	1	11%	0
VAN L. Ohgren	1.3	1	0.39	1	15%	1
VAN D. O'Connor	1.3	0	0.32	0	14%	0
VAN M. Rossi	1.3	1	0.57	0	21%	0
VAN J. Lekkerimäki	1.3	2	0.42	0	17%	0
FLA U. Balinskis	1.2	0	0.28	0	7%	0
VAN B. Gallagher	1.2	1	0.25	0	11%	0
FLA S. Vilmanis	1.1	1	0.34	0	14%	0
VAN T. Willander	1.1	1	0.39	0	8%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	1.1	2	0.23	1	7%	1
FLA N. Mikkola	1.0	1	0.25	0	6%	0
VAN P. Cotter	1.0	1	0.33	0	17%	0
VAN J. Oleksiak	0.9	2	0.23	0	5%	0
VAN M. Sasson	0.9	2	0.28	0	14%	0
VAN Z. Buium	0.8	1	0.27	0	6%	0
FLA G. Hathaway	0.8	0	0.19	0	9%	0
FLA B. Imama	0.8	0	0.10	0	6%	0
FLA D. Kulikov	0.7	2	0.20	0	5%	0
FLA S. Lafferty	0.7	0	0.19	0	9%	0
VAN V. Mancini	0.7	0	0.17	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.