VAN beat LAK 3-2 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 1.71 expected goals to 3.03. LAK outshot VAN 26 to 17. C. Garland led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). K. Lankinen stopped 24 of 26.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| LAK | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
- 1st 9:56VANN. Hoglander0.13 xG
- 2nd 13:07VANC. GarlandPP0.20 xG
- 3rd 9:16LAKA. Kempe0.14 xG
- 3rd 14:01LAKW. Foegele0.08 xG
- OT 4:26VANC. Garland0.06 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
VAN 1.71 xGLAK 3.03 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
VAN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Garland | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:20 | 1:19 |
| F. Chytil | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:35 | 1:19 |
| D. Joshua | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:51 | 1:19 |
| N. Hoglander | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:28 | 1:34 |
| P. Suter | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:22 | 2:02 |
| E. Pettersson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:07 | 2:02 |
| D. O'Connor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 17:02 | 0:00 |
| B. Boeser | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:35 | 1:19 |
| J. DeBrusk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 16:24 | 2:02 |
| T. Blueger | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:09 | 0:00 |
| K. Sherwood | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:01 | 0:00 |
| Q. Hughes | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:38 | 3:21 |
| D. Forbort | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:13 | 0:00 |
| F. Hronek | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 26:03 | 0:28 |
| M. Pettersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 21:32 | 0:00 |
| T. Myers | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:26 | 0:00 |
| C. Soucy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 11:56 | 0:00 |
| E. Pettersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 10:10 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Lankinen | 26 | 24 | 2 | .923 | 64:26 | Win |
| A. Silovs | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
LAK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Kempe | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 26:14 | 5:53 |
| Q. Byfield | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 22:56 | 3:47 |
| W. Foegele | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:36 | 1:48 |
| K. Fiala | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 22:37 | 6:04 |
| A. Kopitar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:22 | 5:56 |
| T. Moore | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:28 | 1:56 |
| A. Laferriere | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:25 | 4:05 |
| P. Danault | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 17:42 | 1:56 |
| A. Turcotte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:18 | 0:00 |
| T. Jeannot | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:17 | 0:00 |
| T. Lewis | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 6:55 | 0:00 |
| V. Gavrikov | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 25:39 | 0:19 |
| J. Spence | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:59 | 1:56 |
| J. Moverare | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:17 | 0:00 |
| M. Anderson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 26:30 | 0:09 |
| J. Edmundson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:45 | 0:07 |
| B. Clarke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:49 | 4:04 |
| K. Burroughs | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2:42 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Rittich | 17 | 14 | 3 | .824 | 64:26 | OT loss |
| D. Kuemper | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | VAN 2.5, LAK 2.8 | VAN 3, LAK 2 |
| Total goals | 5.3 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | VAN 23.0, LAK 27.2 | VAN 17, LAK 26 |
| Win chance | LAK 56% | VAN won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK K. Fiala | 3.2 | 4 | 0.93 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kempe | 3.1 | 2 | 0.89 | 1 | 34% | 1 |
| LAK A. Laferriere | 2.6 | 2 | 0.55 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| VAN F. Chytil | 2.5 | 2 | 0.50 | 2 | 21% | 0 |
| LAK W. Foegele | 2.4 | 2 | 0.53 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| LAK T. Moore | 2.4 | 4 | 0.58 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| VAN Q. Hughes | 2.2 | 2 | 0.90 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| LAK Q. Byfield | 2.1 | 2 | 0.69 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| VAN B. Boeser | 2.1 | 0 | 0.65 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| VAN J. DeBrusk | 1.9 | 0 | 0.53 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| VAN C. Garland | 1.9 | 4 | 0.48 | 2 | 19% | 2 |
| VAN E. Pettersson | 1.8 | 1 | 0.69 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| LAK P. Danault | 1.7 | 3 | 0.61 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| VAN K. Sherwood | 1.6 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| VAN D. O'Connor | 1.6 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| VAN P. Suter | 1.5 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| VAN F. Hronek | 1.5 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kopitar | 1.4 | 0 | 0.77 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| LAK V. Gavrikov | 1.4 | 1 | 0.32 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| LAK J. Edmundson | 1.2 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| LAK B. Clarke | 1.2 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| VAN T. Myers | 1.1 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VAN N. Hoglander | 1.1 | 2 | 0.26 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| LAK M. Anderson | 1.1 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| VAN M. Pettersson | 1.0 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| LAK T. Lewis | 1.0 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| VAN T. Blueger | 1.0 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| LAK A. Turcotte | 1.0 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| VAN D. Joshua | 0.9 | 0 | 0.34 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| LAK J. Spence | 0.9 | 1 | 0.28 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| VAN E. Pettersson | 0.8 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| VAN C. Soucy | 0.8 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| LAK T. Jeannot | 0.8 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VAN D. Forbort | 0.7 | 0 | 0.15 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| LAK J. Moverare | 0.6 | 0 | 0.10 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| LAK K. Burroughs | 0.3 | 0 | 0.04 | 0 | 1% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.