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Game Recap
VAN1
LAK2
LAK beat VAN 2-1 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.57 expected goals to 2.12. A. Kempe led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). A. Forsberg stopped 19 of 20.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| LAK | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
- 1st 17:19LAKA. Kopitar0.12 xG
- 2nd 2:52VANE. Kane0.24 xG
- OT 3:58LAKA. Kempe0.37 xG
Team Stats
VANLAK
20Shots on goal23
2.12Expected goals2.57
51Shot attempts53
155v5 shots on goal12
0/3Power play0/4
16Hits14
13Blocked shots11
8Penalty minutes6
11Giveaways15
6Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
VAN 2.12 xGLAK 2.57 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
VAN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Kane | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 4 | 18:50 | 2:23 |
| D. O'Connor | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:25 | 0:00 |
| E. Pettersson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:07 | 3:42 |
| B. Boeser | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:21 | 3:50 |
| K. Sherwood | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:08 | 3:02 |
| J. DeBrusk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:44 | 3:44 |
| D. Kampf | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:59 | 0:00 |
| J. Lekkerimäki | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:24 | 2:36 |
| L. Karlsson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:49 | 1:55 |
| M. Sasson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 11:47 | 0:20 |
| A. Räty | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10:15 | 0:11 |
| A. Bains | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 7:38 | 0:00 |
| T. Myers | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 19:37 | 0:00 |
| Q. Hughes | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 30:13 | 4:55 |
| F. Hronek | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 26:02 | 2:00 |
| M. Pettersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 21:51 | 0:28 |
| T. Willander | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:21 | 0:54 |
| P. Joseph | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:23 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Lankinen | 23 | 21 | 2 | .913 | 63:58 | OT loss |
| N. Tolopilo | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
LAK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Kempe | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 18:19 | 4:37 |
| Q. Byfield | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 22:07 | 4:39 |
| K. Fiala | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 4 | 20:30 | 4:41 |
| A. Kopitar | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:12 | 4:40 |
| A. Laferriere | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:42 | 3:07 |
| J. Armia | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:59 | 2:01 |
| T. Moore | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:43 | 3:15 |
| A. Kuzmenko | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:45 | 4:49 |
| P. Danault | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:39 | 1:23 |
| C. Perry | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:26 | 3:11 |
| J. Malott | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:15 | 0:00 |
| A. Turcotte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9:45 | 0:00 |
| B. Dumoulin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:47 | 0:09 |
| M. Anderson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:55 | 0:01 |
| J. Edmundson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:36 | 0:00 |
| B. Clarke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:37 | 3:27 |
| C. Ceci | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 16:40 | 0:00 |
| J. Moverare | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:38 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Forsberg | 20 | 19 | 1 | .950 | 63:17 | Win |
| D. Kuemper | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
VAN
Line 1E. Kane14:49E. Pettersson12:16J. DeBrusk11:30
Line 2K. Sherwood11:58B. Boeser12:51D. Kampf12:26
Line 3D. O'Connor11:41A. Räty9:49J. Lekkerimäki10:23
Line 4L. Karlsson9:54M. Sasson10:33A. Bains7:38
Pair 2T. Myers13:52M. Pettersson16:24
Pair 3P. Joseph6:52T. Willander12:27
LAK
Line 1A. Laferriere13:02P. Danault13:48A. Kuzmenko10:56
Line 2K. Fiala12:57Q. Byfield11:54A. Kempe11:27
Line 3A. Kopitar11:41T. Moore10:21
Line 4A. Turcotte9:45J. Malott10:15C. Perry7:45
Pair 1J. Edmundson17:00M. Anderson17:50
Pair 2B. Dumoulin18:46B. Clarke14:54
Pair 3C. Ceci14:34J. Moverare7:38
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | VAN 2.7, LAK 3.3 | VAN 1, LAK 2 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | VAN 24.6, LAK 29.7 | VAN 20, LAK 23 |
| Win chance | LAK 59% | LAK won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK K. Fiala | 3.2 | 1 | 0.95 | 1 | 35% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kempe | 3.1 | 3 | 1.01 | 2 | 36% | 1 |
| VAN Q. Hughes | 2.5 | 0 | 0.90 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| LAK A. Laferriere | 2.4 | 3 | 0.58 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| VAN J. DeBrusk | 2.4 | 0 | 0.54 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| VAN E. Kane | 2.4 | 3 | 0.49 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| LAK Q. Byfield | 2.4 | 0 | 0.82 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| VAN B. Boeser | 2.2 | 3 | 0.68 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| LAK T. Moore | 2.1 | 2 | 0.57 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| LAK B. Clarke | 2.0 | 3 | 0.54 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| VAN E. Pettersson | 1.9 | 1 | 0.81 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| VAN K. Sherwood | 1.8 | 3 | 0.53 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| LAK C. Perry | 1.6 | 2 | 0.52 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| LAK P. Danault | 1.5 | 1 | 0.53 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kopitar | 1.4 | 3 | 0.83 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| LAK A. Kuzmenko | 1.3 | 1 | 0.60 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| VAN F. Hronek | 1.3 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| LAK J. Edmundson | 1.2 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| VAN D. O'Connor | 1.2 | 0 | 0.29 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| VAN L. Karlsson | 1.2 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| LAK J. Armia | 1.2 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| VAN T. Myers | 1.1 | 0 | 0.23 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| LAK C. Ceci | 1.0 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| VAN J. Lekkerimäki | 0.9 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| LAK B. Dumoulin | 0.9 | 1 | 0.28 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| VAN D. Kampf | 0.9 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| LAK J. Malott | 0.9 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| VAN M. Sasson | 0.9 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| LAK A. Turcotte | 0.9 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| LAK M. Anderson | 0.8 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| VAN A. Räty | 0.8 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| VAN M. Pettersson | 0.8 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VAN P. Joseph | 0.7 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| VAN T. Willander | 0.6 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| LAK J. Moverare | 0.5 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| VAN A. Bains | 0.5 | 0 | 0.08 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.