Game Recap: VAN 2, MIN 5, November 1, 2025

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Game Recap

VAN2

FinalSat, Nov 1, 2025Every game that night

MIN5

MIN beat VAN 5-2, with the chances close: 2.87 expected goals to 2.21. V. Tarasenko led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). F. Hronek had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. F. Gustavsson stopped 26 of 28.

Team Stats

VANMIN

28Shots on goal28

2.21Expected goals2.87

61Shot attempts57

225v5 shots on goal22

0/3Power play1/3

22Hits26

12Blocked shots15

18Penalty minutes18

14Giveaways11

2Takeaways1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VAN 2.21 xGMIN 2.87 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VAN27 on goal, 2 scored

MIN27 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. O'Connor	LW	2	0	2	2	0	1	+1	0	15:37	0:49
A. Räty	C	0	2	2	0	5	0	0	0	13:51	0:00
M. MacEachern	LW	0	1	1	3	1	1	+2	0	10:56	0:00
E. Pettersson	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	21:59	4:39
B. Boeser	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-2	0	21:13	4:40
K. Sherwood	LW	0	0	0	1	4	0	-2	0	19:13	4:39
J. DeBrusk	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	-3	0	16:58	3:39
E. Kane	LW	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	12	15:10	0:08
L. Reichel	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	13:14	0:00
A. Bains	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	11:36	0:49
M. Sasson	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	11:02	0:56
L. Karlsson	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	9:50	1:57
F. Hronek	D	0	0	0	5	2	0	+1	0	25:47	4:36
M. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	21:59	0:08
T. Myers	D	0	0	0	3	3	1	-1	0	18:46	0:00
E. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	2	16:40	0:00
T. Willander	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	16:08	1:00
P. Joseph	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	14:28	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
T. Demko	27	23	4	.852	58:54	Loss
K. Lankinen	0	0	0	–	0:00

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
V. Tarasenko	RW	1	2	3	2	2	0	+1	0	11:09	3:40
J. Eriksson Ek	C	0	2	2	2	2	0	0	0	18:26	3:41
V. Hinostroza	C	1	1	2	3	0	1	+2	0	12:35	0:00
M. Rossi	C	1	0	1	3	3	1	+1	2	18:34	0:59
M. Boldy	LW	0	1	1	4	1	1	0	0	17:39	4:13
M. Johansson	LW	0	1	1	3	2	0	+1	0	16:09	0:26
R. Hartman	RW	1	0	1	1	2	1	+1	0	14:17	0:48
K. Kaprizov	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	23:55	4:32
Y. Trenin	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	2	14:53	0:00
M. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	14	10:28	0:00
B. Jones	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	9:44	0:00
T. Pitlick	C	0	0	0	1	4	2	-1	0	9:06	0:00
J. Brodin	D	1	1	2	1	0	4	+2	0	23:29	0:17
B. Faber	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	-1	0	25:09	0:31
J. Spurgeon	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+3	0	21:28	4:08
J. Middleton	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	+3	0	19:46	0:00
Z. Buium	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	13:56	0:00
D.Jiricek	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	11:56	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Gustavsson	28	26	2	.929	59:45	Win
J. Wallstedt	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

VAN

Line 1B. Boeser14:31E. Pettersson13:55J. DeBrusk11:22

Line 2A. Räty10:47D. O'Connor11:29M. MacEachern10:43

Line 3E. Kane15:02L. Reichel12:35K. Sherwood10:26

Line 4A. Bains10:32M. Sasson10:04L. Karlsson7:46

Pair 1M. Pettersson17:11T. Willander14:37

Pair 2F. Hronek16:40E. Pettersson16:12

Pair 3T. Myers14:50P. Joseph13:18

MIN

Line 1M. Johansson15:04M. Rossi14:28K. Kaprizov18:01

Line 2R. Hartman12:40V. Hinostroza11:46M. Foligno10:26

Line 3J. Ek10:26M. Boldy10:20V. Tarasenko7:29

Line 4T. Pitlick8:24B. Jones9:02Y. Trenin11:00

Pair 1J. Brodin18:29B. Faber20:39

Pair 2J. Spurgeon12:36J. Middleton15:30

Pair 3Z. Buium13:46D.Jiricek11:54

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamMarco Rossi VAN Faces MIN, his team until Nov 20251 G, 3 SOG
Old teamZeev Buium VAN Faces MIN, his team until Dec 20250 SOG
HometownBrock Boeser VAN Plays near home (born in Burnsville)2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VAN 3.0, MIN 3.1	VAN 2, MIN 5
Total goals	6.0	7
Shots on goal	VAN 26.0, MIN 28.4	VAN 28, MIN 28
Win chance	MIN 52%	MIN won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MIN K. Kaprizov	3.6	2	1.30	0	44%	0
MIN M. Boldy	3.3	4	0.98	1	32%	0
MIN J. Ek	3.0	2	0.71	2	26%	0
VAN E. Kane	2.6	4	0.58	0	27%	0
MIN R. Hartman	2.5	1	0.55	1	22%	1
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.5	3	0.62	0	29%	0
VAN K. Sherwood	2.2	1	0.63	0	26%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	2.0	0	0.87	0	30%	0
MIN V. Tarasenko	1.9	2	0.62	3	23%	1
VAN B. Boeser	1.8	2	0.62	0	26%	0
MIN M. Rossi	1.6	3	0.58	1	20%	1
MIN M. Johansson	1.6	3	0.46	1	16%	0
MIN J. Spurgeon	1.6	1	0.46	0	12%	0
MIN B. Faber	1.6	3	0.33	0	9%	0
VAN F. Hronek	1.5	5	0.58	0	8%	0
VAN T. Myers	1.4	3	0.33	0	5%	0
VAN D. O'Connor	1.4	2	0.32	2	13%	2
VAN L. Reichel	1.3	0	0.36	0	13%	0
MIN V. Hinostroza	1.2	3	0.27	2	11%	1
MIN Y. Trenin	1.2	1	0.22	0	11%	0
MIN J. Brodin	1.2	1	0.32	2	8%	1
MIN Z. Buium	1.1	0	0.37	0	6%	0
VAN A. Räty	1.1	0	0.31	2	15%	0
MIN M. Foligno	1.1	0	0.33	0	15%	0
MIN J. Middleton	1.0	0	0.23	0	7%	0
VAN L. Karlsson	1.0	2	0.23	0	10%	0
VAN M. Sasson	1.0	1	0.26	0	13%	0
VAN M. Pettersson	1.0	1	0.35	0	4%	0
VAN P. Joseph	0.9	0	0.15	0	3%	0
MIN T. Pitlick	0.8	1	0.17	0	7%	0
MIN B. Jones	0.8	1	0.05	0	5%	0
VAN M. MacEachern	0.8	3	0.16	1	7%	0
MIN D.Jiricek	0.8	0	0.17	0	4%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	0.7	0	0.14	0	3%	0
VAN A. Bains	0.7	0	0.14	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.