Game Recap: VAN 3, MTL 6, January 12, 2026

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Game Recap

VAN3

FinalMon, Jan 12, 2026Every game that night

MTL6

MTL beat VAN 6-3, and the chances backed it up: 4.92 expected goals to 3.11. MTL outshot VAN 41 to 23. J. Slafkovský led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). P. Danault had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. J. Dobes stopped 20 of 23.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
VAN	1	2	0	3
MTL	1	2	3	6

1st 11:53VANE. Pettersson0.25 xG
1st 18:13MTLN. DobsonPP0.10 xG
2nd 1:50VANE. Kane0.21 xG
2nd 4:31MTLA. Carrier0.16 xG
2nd 4:51MTLA. Carrier0.22 xG
2nd 9:42VANM. Sasson0.24 xG
3rd 0:29MTLM. Matheson0.04 xG
3rd 1:07MTLJ. Slafkovský0.07 xG
3rd 6:05MTLO. Kapanen0.13 xG

Team Stats

VANMTL

23Shots on goal41

3.11Expected goals4.92

58Shot attempts69

185v5 shots on goal40

0/2Power play1/1

12Hits26

9Blocked shots26

2Penalty minutes4

18Giveaways18

4Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VAN 3.11 xGMTL 4.92 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VAN21 on goal, 3 scored

MTL41 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
E. Pettersson	C	1	0	1	4	0	2	-1	0	16:41	2:54
L. Karlsson	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	-1	0	15:34	1:05
E. Kane	LW	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	14:33	1:38
M. Sasson	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	0	14:31	1:44
D. O'Connor	LW	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	13:40	0:00
A. Räty	C	0	1	1	1	4	0	0	0	12:25	0:00
B. Boeser	RW	0	0	0	3	0	1	-2	2	21:41	2:55
C. Garland	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	18:33	2:22
D. Kampf	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-2	0	16:45	0:00
J. DeBrusk	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	14:51	2:16
L. Ohgren	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	11:37	0:00
N. Hoglander	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	11:22	0:00
F. Hronek	D	0	1	1	3	0	0	-1	0	21:16	1:42
P. Joseph	D	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	17:15	0:00
M. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	1	2	3	0	0	22:45	0:00
T. Myers	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	19:47	0:00
T. Willander	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	18:32	2:18
V. Mancini	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	18:08	1:06

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
N. Tolopilo	41	35	6	.854	60:00	Loss
K. Lankinen	0	0	0	–	0:00

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Slafkovský	LW	1	2	3	1	1	2	+2	0	14:44	0:04
I. Demidov	RW	0	3	3	3	0	0	+3	0	14:27	0:00
A. Texier	LW	0	2	2	2	1	1	+1	0	18:21	0:04
N. Suzuki	C	0	2	2	1	1	1	+2	0	17:06	0:04
O. Kapanen	C	1	0	1	5	0	1	+2	0	16:21	0:00
C. Caufield	RW	0	1	1	4	2	0	+2	0	16:16	0:04
P. Danault	C	0	0	0	6	0	4	-2	0	16:34	0:00
B. Gallagher	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-2	0	13:39	0:00
Z. Bolduc	RW	0	0	0	1	4	1	-2	0	13:29	0:00
J. Veleno	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	12:40	0:00
S. Blais	LW	0	0	0	0	4	2	0	0	11:06	0:00
O. Beck	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	11:03	0:00
A. Carrier	D	2	0	2	3	0	3	+3	2	20:01	0:00
M. Matheson	D	1	0	1	2	2	2	+3	0	23:04	0:00
N. Dobson	D	1	0	1	4	1	4	+2	2	22:18	0:04
L. Hutson	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	+1	0	20:01	0:00
K. Guhle	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-2	0	19:56	0:00
A. Xhekaj	D	0	0	0	1	6	2	-3	0	14:54	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Dobes	23	20	3	.870	60:00	Win
J. Fowler	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

VAN

Line 1B. Boeser18:46C. Garland16:11D. Kampf16:41

Line 2L. Karlsson14:29E. Pettersson13:47J. DeBrusk12:35

Line 3D. O'Connor13:40L. Ohgren11:37M. Sasson12:47

Line 4E. Kane12:55A. Räty12:21N. Hoglander11:22

Pair 1M. Pettersson22:41V. Mancini17:02

Pair 2F. Hronek19:34T. Willander16:14

Pair 3T. Myers19:43P. Joseph17:15

MTL

Line 1N. Suzuki17:02A. Texier17:19C. Caufield16:12

Line 2J. Slafkovský14:40O. Kapanen13:51I. Demidov14:27

Line 3B. Gallagher13:39P. Danault14:27Z. Bolduc13:29

Line 4S. Blais11:06J. Veleno10:14O. Beck11:03

Pair 1M. Matheson20:11N. Dobson20:50

Pair 2A. Carrier19:10L. Hutson20:01

Pair 3K. Guhle18:12A. Xhekaj13:47

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamBrendan Gallagher VAN First game back in Montreal, his team until May 20263 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VAN 3.0, MTL 3.4	VAN 3, MTL 6
Total goals	6.4	9
Shots on goal	VAN 25.4, MTL 26.9	VAN 23, MTL 41
Win chance	MTL 56%	MTL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MTL C. Caufield	2.8	4	0.88	1	33%	0
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.5	2	0.59	0	28%	0
VAN E. Kane	2.3	1	0.52	1	24%	1
MTL N. Suzuki	2.2	1	1.06	2	29%	0
VAN B. Boeser	2.1	3	0.70	0	30%	0
MTL N. Dobson	2.1	4	0.64	1	14%	1
MTL J. Slafkovský	2.0	1	0.78	3	25%	1
MTL O. Kapanen	2.0	5	0.64	1	24%	1
VAN C. Garland	1.9	1	0.57	0	21%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	1.9	4	0.83	1	29%	1
MTL B. Gallagher	1.8	3	0.44	0	17%	0
MTL A. Texier	1.7	2	0.55	2	20%	0
MTL M. Matheson	1.5	2	0.48	1	11%	1
VAN L. Karlsson	1.5	1	0.44	1	18%	0
MTL I. Demidov	1.5	3	0.88	3	21%	0
VAN L. Ohgren	1.5	0	0.24	0	12%	0
MTL L. Hutson	1.5	2	0.96	1	11%	0
MTL P. Danault	1.4	6	0.51	0	15%	0
MTL Z. Bolduc	1.4	1	0.43	0	19%	0
VAN F. Hronek	1.4	3	0.53	1	8%	0
VAN D. O'Connor	1.4	0	0.34	1	16%	0
VAN M. Sasson	1.3	1	0.30	1	17%	1
MTL K. Guhle	1.2	2	0.32	0	9%	0
VAN N. Hoglander	1.1	1	0.31	0	14%	0
VAN T. Myers	1.1	2	0.25	0	4%	0
MTL J. Veleno	1.0	1	0.24	0	11%	0
VAN A. Räty	1.0	1	0.32	1	14%	0
VAN T. Willander	1.0	1	0.39	0	7%	0
VAN D. Kampf	0.9	1	0.26	0	11%	0
VAN M. Pettersson	0.9	1	0.30	0	4%	0
MTL A. Carrier	0.9	3	0.32	2	5%	2
MTL O. Beck	0.8	0	0.13	0	8%	0
MTL A. Xhekaj	0.7	1	0.10	0	4%	0
VAN P. Joseph	0.7	0	0.13	1	3%	0
MTL S. Blais	0.7	0	0.25	0	8%	0
VAN V. Mancini	0.6	0	0.16	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.