Game Recap: VAN 2, NJD 1, December 14, 2025

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Game Recap

VAN2

FinalSun, Dec 14, 2025Every game that night

NJD1

VAN beat NJD 2-1 despite fewer good chances: 1.76 expected goals to 3.02. NJD outshot VAN 26 to 15. Z. Buium led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). L. Hughes had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. T. Demko stopped 25 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
VAN	2	0	0	2
NJD	0	1	0	1

1st 1:01VANJ. DeBruskPP0.26 xG
1st 6:48VANZ. BuiumPP0.06 xG
2nd 4:02NJDL. Hughes0.20 xG

Team Stats

VANNJD

15Shots on goal26

1.76Expected goals3.02

39Shot attempts60

105v5 shots on goal21

2/3Power play0/3

22Hits18

16Blocked shots11

6Penalty minutes6

12Giveaways15

4Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VAN 1.76 xGNJD 3.02 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VAN14 on goal, 2 scored

NJD26 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Garland	RW	0	2	2	1	0	0	-1	0	18:59	2:32
J. DeBrusk	LW	1	0	1	4	0	1	0	0	15:17	2:20
B. Boeser	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	18:48	2:32
D. Kampf	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	18:25	0:00
M. Rossi	C	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	18:16	2:35
K. Sherwood	LW	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	2	16:29	0:50
E. Kane	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	15:29	1:04
N. Hoglander	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	13:10	0:48
D. O'Connor	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	12:43	0:00
L. Ohgren	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	11:39	0:00
M. Sasson	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:20	0:00
L. Karlsson	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	7:17	0:47
Z. Buium	D	1	1	2	2	1	1	0	0	19:50	2:33
F. Hronek	D	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	24:57	0:49
M. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	-1	0	22:56	0:00
T. Myers	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	-1	4	20:36	0:00
E. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	0	6	1	0	0	15:31	0:00
T. Willander	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	13:18	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
T. Demko	26	25	1	.962	60:00	Win
K. Lankinen	0	0	0	–	0:00

NJD Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Bratt	LW	0	1	1	4	1	0	+1	0	21:46	3:02
D. Mercer	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	21:22	1:41
N. Hischier	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	22:30	3:15
C. Brown	RW	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	18:03	1:59
O. Palat	LW	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	16:46	2:23
C. Glass	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	16:06	1:22
P. Cotter	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	15:22	1:25
S. Noesen	RW	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	2	15:08	3:01
J. Lammikko	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	13:07	0:20
L. Glendening	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	0	8:25	0:00
X. Parent	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	7:22	0:00
A. Crookshank	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	7:05	0:00
L. Hughes	D	1	0	1	5	0	0	+1	0	27:01	2:50
D. Hamilton	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	2	24:25	1:52
J. Siegenthaler	D	0	0	0	1	3	2	0	0	19:34	0:20
B. Dillon	D	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	0	18:04	0:00
D. Cholowski	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	14:51	0:00
C. White	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	11:49	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Markstrom	15	13	2	.867	57:52	Loss
J. Allen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

VAN

Line 1C. Garland15:03D. Kampf15:16N. Hoglander12:22

Line 2B. Boeser14:02M. Rossi14:03J. DeBrusk11:05

Line 3E. Kane13:55K. Sherwood13:16D. O'Connor11:27

Line 4M. Sasson10:20L. Ohgren11:39L. Karlsson6:30

Pair 1M. Pettersson19:42F. Hronek18:15

Pair 2T. Myers18:44Z. Buium17:08

Pair 3E. Pettersson12:55T. Willander13:18

NJD

Line 1N. Hischier15:46D. Mercer16:06J. Bratt16:36

Line 2C. Brown14:09C. Glass14:44O. Palat13:57

Line 3J. Lammikko12:47P. Cotter13:57S. Noesen10:25

Line 4A. Crookshank7:05X. Parent7:22L. Glendening6:27

Pair 1J. Siegenthaler17:37D. Hamilton18:45

Pair 2B. Dillon16:19L. Hughes20:18

Pair 3D. Cholowski14:51C. White11:49

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamPaul Cotter VAN Faces NJD, his team until Apr 20261 SOG
HometownDrew O'Connor VAN Plays near home (born in Chatham)1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VAN 3.1, NJD 3.0	VAN 2, NJD 1
Total goals	6.0	3
Shots on goal	VAN 26.8, NJD 28.0	VAN 15, NJD 26
Win chance	VAN 52%	VAN won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NJD D. Hamilton	2.6	1	0.54	0	15%	0
VAN C. Garland	2.5	1	0.71	2	26%	0
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.4	4	0.59	1	28%	1
NJD J. Bratt	2.3	4	0.98	1	25%	0
VAN E. Kane	2.3	0	0.51	0	25%	0
NJD N. Hischier	2.3	2	0.90	0	30%	0
VAN B. Boeser	2.3	2	0.76	0	32%	0
VAN K. Sherwood	2.1	1	0.57	0	25%	0
NJD L. Hughes	1.9	5	0.55	1	8%	1
NJD D. Mercer	1.8	1	0.54	1	23%	0
NJD C. Glass	1.6	0	0.36	0	14%	0
NJD S. Noesen	1.6	0	0.42	0	18%	0
VAN M. Rossi	1.5	1	0.53	0	21%	0
NJD C. Brown	1.5	3	0.47	0	17%	0
VAN F. Hronek	1.5	0	0.48	0	7%	0
VAN L. Karlsson	1.4	0	0.32	0	14%	0
VAN N. Hoglander	1.4	1	0.41	0	18%	0
NJD O. Palat	1.2	2	0.39	0	15%	0
VAN T. Myers	1.2	0	0.28	0	4%	0
VAN D. O'Connor	1.2	1	0.31	0	14%	0
VAN M. Sasson	1.2	0	0.28	0	15%	0
NJD P. Cotter	1.1	1	0.30	0	15%	0
NJD A. Crookshank	1.1	0	0.21	0	10%	0
VAN L. Ohgren	1.1	1	0.14	0	8%	0
VAN D. Kampf	1.0	0	0.26	0	11%	0
NJD J. Siegenthaler	0.9	1	0.15	0	4%	0
VAN Z. Buium	0.9	2	0.35	2	5%	1
VAN M. Pettersson	0.9	0	0.29	0	4%	0
VAN T. Willander	0.8	1	0.30	0	4%	0
NJD J. Lammikko	0.8	1	0.18	0	8%	0
NJD D. Cholowski	0.8	0	0.18	0	4%	0
NJD B. Dillon	0.7	2	0.25	0	6%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	0.7	0	0.14	0	4%	0
NJD L. Glendening	0.6	0	0.12	0	7%	0
NJD C. White	0.6	2	0.16	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 16 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.