Game Recap: VAN 1, NSH 2, October 23, 2025

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Game Recap

VAN1

FinalThu, Oct 23, 2025Every game that night

NSH2

NSH beat VAN 2-1, with the chances close: 2.18 expected goals to 2.50. NSH outshot VAN 35 to 22. B. Boeser had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. J. Saros stopped 21 of 22.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
VAN	0	1	0	1
NSH	0	1	1	2

2nd 9:01NSHR. O'ReillySH0.07 xG
2nd 11:49VANM. Sasson0.09 xG
3rd 5:09NSHC. Smith0.11 xG

Team Stats

VANNSH

22Shots on goal35

2.50Expected goals2.18

51Shot attempts63

135v5 shots on goal30

0/5Power play0/3

25Hits21

20Blocked shots19

6Penalty minutes10

12Giveaways10

3Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VAN 2.50 xGNSH 2.18 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VAN22 on goal, 1 scored

NSH35 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Sasson	C	1	0	1	1	0	2	+1	0	12:08	0:00
L. Karlsson	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	9:51	2:12
C. Garland	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	23:31	6:51
B. Boeser	RW	0	0	0	5	1	0	0	0	21:09	6:37
E. Pettersson	C	0	0	0	1	2	4	0	0	20:45	6:19
E. Kane	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	19:29	2:34
K. Sherwood	LW	0	0	0	1	4	0	-2	0	18:16	1:31
A. Räty	C	0	0	0	1	5	0	-1	0	14:47	0:02
J. DeBrusk	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	14:21	5:54
D. O'Connor	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	13:03	0:00
A. Bains	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	8:55	0:46
N. Aman	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	6:47	0:00
Q. Hughes	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	29:26	7:17
F. Hronek	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	25:00	2:06
T. Myers	D	0	0	0	0	1	4	0	2	20:20	0:00
M. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	4	16:25	0:03
E. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	0	2	5	0	0	11:51	0:18
P. Joseph	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	10:14	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
T. Demko	35	33	2	.943	57:42	Loss
K. Lankinen	0	0	0	–	0:00

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. O'Reilly	C	1	0	1	2	1	3	0	0	17:57	3:17
M. McCarron	C	0	1	1	0	2	2	+1	0	16:22	0:23
C. Smith	RW	1	0	1	2	3	0	+1	0	15:55	0:18
F. Forsberg	LW	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	0	16:05	3:15
S. Stamkos	C	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	15:08	3:13
M. Wood	RW	0	0	0	4	0	0	-1	0	14:28	2:26
E. Haula	LW	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	4	14:21	2:19
L. Evangelista	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	2	14:21	3:29
F. Svechkov	C	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	13:13	0:00
M. Bunting	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	12:37	2:17
T. Jost	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	+1	0	12:30	0:00
O. Wiesblatt	C	0	0	0	2	4	1	0	0	9:47	0:17
S. Stastney	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	+2	0	14:38	0:09
J. Barron	D	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	14:16	2:28
N. Perbix	D	0	0	0	3	3	4	0	2	25:44	0:16
B. Skjei	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	2	24:45	2:29
A. Wilsby	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	19:44	0:00
R. Josi	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	18:09	3:24

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Saros	22	21	1	.955	60:00	Win
J. Annunen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

VAN

Line 1K. Sherwood13:41D. O'Connor11:37A. Räty13:39

Line 2E. Kane15:59E. Pettersson10:45C. Garland10:16

Line 3B. Boeser12:14M. Sasson12:08J. DeBrusk6:01

Line 4L. Karlsson7:39A. Bains8:09N. Aman6:47

Pair 1Q. Hughes19:26F. Hronek17:42

Pair 2T. Myers16:49M. Pettersson14:52

Pair 3P. Joseph7:44E. Pettersson10:32

NSH

Line 1F. Forsberg11:45M. Wood12:02R. O'Reilly11:29

Line 2S. Stamkos10:17M. Bunting10:20E. Haula10:09

Line 3C. Smith10:27O. Wiesblatt9:30M. McCarron10:21

Line 4T. Jost9:41L. Evangelista10:44F. Svechkov12:26

Pair 1B. Skjei16:27N. Perbix18:59

Pair 2R. Josi11:58A. Wilsby16:03

Pair 3J. Barron11:43S. Stastney11:39

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamKevin Lankinen VAN Faces NSH, his team until May 20240 saves on 0

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VAN 3.0, NSH 3.0	VAN 1, NSH 2
Total goals	6.0	3
Shots on goal	VAN 25.0, NSH 28.2	VAN 22, NSH 35
Win chance	NSH 50%	NSH won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NSH F. Forsberg	3.3	4	0.98	0	35%	0
NSH R. Josi	2.6	2	0.84	0	22%	0
VAN Q. Hughes	2.4	2	1.06	0	17%	0
VAN C. Garland	2.4	1	0.75	0	24%	0
VAN E. Kane	2.4	3	0.57	0	25%	0
NSH S. Stamkos	2.2	4	0.81	0	32%	0
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.2	3	0.65	0	27%	0
VAN B. Boeser	2.1	5	0.82	0	31%	0
NSH L. Evangelista	2.0	2	0.51	0	17%	0
VAN K. Sherwood	2.0	1	0.61	0	23%	0
NSH M. Bunting	1.9	2	0.55	0	21%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	1.8	2	0.71	1	24%	1
NSH B. Skjei	1.8	1	0.47	0	14%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	1.7	1	0.84	0	27%	0
NSH E. Haula	1.7	0	0.42	0	18%	0
NSH T. Jost	1.4	1	0.28	0	11%	0
VAN F. Hronek	1.3	1	0.51	0	8%	0
VAN D. O'Connor	1.3	2	0.31	0	13%	0
NSH M. Wood	1.3	4	0.29	0	12%	0
VAN T. Myers	1.3	0	0.34	0	6%	0
NSH F. Svechkov	1.3	4	0.29	0	13%	0
NSH A. Wilsby	1.2	2	0.25	0	5%	0
NSH M. McCarron	1.2	0	0.25	1	12%	0
VAN L. Karlsson	1.2	0	0.24	1	10%	0
VAN A. Räty	1.1	1	0.35	0	16%	0
VAN M. Sasson	1.1	1	0.29	1	13%	1
NSH C. Smith	1.1	2	0.22	1	9%	1
NSH N. Perbix	1.0	3	0.33	0	8%	0
NSH J. Barron	1.0	0	0.23	1	10%	0
VAN P. Joseph	0.9	0	0.17	0	4%	0
VAN M. Pettersson	0.9	1	0.33	0	5%	0
NSH O. Wiesblatt	0.9	2	0.30	0	9%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	0.7	0	0.12	0	4%	0
NSH S. Stastney	0.6	0	0.16	1	4%	0
VAN A. Bains	0.6	0	0.16	0	8%	0
VAN N. Aman	0.6	0	0.21	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.