Game Recap: VAN 5, NSH 4 (OT), November 3, 2025

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Game Recap

VAN5

Final/OTMon, Nov 3, 2025Every game that night

NSH4

VAN beat NSH 5-4 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.93 expected goals to 2.67. B. Boeser led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). F. Forsberg had 9 shots on goal against our projection of 3.2. T. Demko stopped 25 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
VAN	1	2	1	1	5
NSH	1	1	2	0	4

1st 6:47NSHF. Forsberg0.06 xG
1st 14:45VANE. KanePP0.04 xG
2nd 12:57VANJ. DeBruskPP0.10 xG
2nd 15:05VANB. Boeser0.15 xG
2nd 18:45NSHE. HaulaPP0.18 xG
3rd 3:02VANE. Kane0.15 xG
3rd 11:52NSHM. Bunting0.12 xG
3rd 16:37NSHN. BlankenburgPP0.08 xG
OT 4:58VANB. Boeser0.18 xG

Team Stats

VANNSH

36Shots on goal29

2.93Expected goals2.67

55Shot attempts67

235v5 shots on goal22

2/3Power play2/4

22Hits19

22Blocked shots7

8Penalty minutes6

21Giveaways18

5Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VAN 2.93 xGNSH 2.67 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VAN35 on goal, 5 scored

NSH29 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Boeser	RW	2	1	3	6	1	0	+2	0	20:15	3:15
E. Pettersson	C	0	2	2	0	0	3	0	0	22:44	3:15
E. Kane	LW	2	0	2	3	1	1	0	2	16:56	1:27
J. DeBrusk	LW	1	0	1	6	2	1	+1	0	21:04	3:15
L. Karlsson	C	0	1	1	2	1	1	+1	0	10:43	0:26
A. Bains	LW	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	9:19	0:26
K. Sherwood	LW	0	0	0	4	5	0	-1	2	21:19	2:14
L. Reichel	LW	0	0	0	0	0	2	+1	0	15:44	0:00
A. Räty	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	2	15:02	0:00
D. O'Connor	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	13:52	0:00
M. MacEachern	LW	0	0	0	1	2	2	-1	0	10:49	0:00
M. Sasson	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	9:40	0:26
F. Hronek	D	0	1	1	3	2	1	+1	2	25:07	0:26
M. Pettersson	D	0	1	1	0	1	4	+1	0	23:59	0:00
E. Pettersson	D	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	11:43	0:00
T. Willander	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	0	10:52	0:00
Q. Hughes	D	0	0	0	6	0	2	+1	0	28:04	3:15
T. Myers	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	-2	0	22:21	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
T. Demko	29	25	4	.862	64:14	Win
K. Lankinen	0	0	0	–	0:00

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
F. Forsberg	LW	1	1	2	9	1	0	0	0	20:01	3:22
L. Evangelista	RW	0	2	2	3	2	0	+1	0	19:25	3:31
M. Bunting	LW	1	1	2	3	0	0	0	0	13:41	2:37
E. Haula	LW	1	0	1	3	1	1	0	0	20:46	3:14
M. Wood	RW	0	1	1	0	1	0	-1	0	13:59	2:23
F. Svechkov	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	11:44	0:00
R. O'Reilly	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	20:05	3:19
J. Marchessault	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	18:59	2:40
S. Stamkos	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	17:49	2:49
T. Jost	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	12:54	0:00
M. McCarron	C	0	0	0	1	4	1	-1	0	12:16	0:00
O. Wiesblatt	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	2	9:33	0:00
B. Skjei	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	-2	0	26:41	3:59
N. Blankenburg	D	1	0	1	2	3	1	-1	0	21:03	2:06
S. Stastney	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	0	16:48	0:00
N. Hague	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	19:18	0:00
N. Perbix	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	18:08	0:16
J. Barron	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	17:17	0:09

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Saros	36	31	5	.861	64:49	OT loss
J. Annunen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

VAN

Line 1B. Boeser14:48J. DeBrusk15:19L. Reichel14:39

Line 2E. Kane14:07K. Sherwood14:16E. Pettersson12:34

Line 3D. O'Connor11:40A. Räty13:19M. MacEachern10:46

Line 4L. Karlsson9:33M. Sasson8:34A. Bains8:05

Pair 1T. Myers19:08Q. Hughes20:40

Pair 2M. Pettersson18:35F. Hronek19:36

Pair 3E. Pettersson10:32T. Willander10:34

NSH

Line 1F. Forsberg14:21L. Evangelista14:59R. O'Reilly13:42

Line 2S. Stamkos13:41J. Marchessault14:20E. Haula14:04

Line 3F. Svechkov11:34M. Wood11:32M. Bunting10:55

Line 4M. McCarron9:54T. Jost10:49O. Wiesblatt8:15

Pair 1N. Hague18:17N. Blankenburg16:50

Pair 2S. Stastney15:19J. Barron16:49

Pair 3B. Skjei16:29N. Perbix14:55

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamKevin Lankinen VAN Faces NSH, his team until May 20240 saves on 0

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VAN 3.0, NSH 3.0	VAN 5, NSH 4
Total goals	5.9	9
Shots on goal	VAN 25.0, NSH 28.4	VAN 36, NSH 29
Win chance	NSH 51%	VAN won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NSH F. Forsberg	3.2	9	0.95	2	35%	1
NSH J. Marchessault	2.6	1	0.76	0	30%	0
VAN E. Kane	2.5	3	0.58	2	26%	2
VAN Q. Hughes	2.5	6	1.04	0	17%	0
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.4	6	0.64	1	28%	1
NSH S. Stamkos	2.3	0	0.79	0	32%	0
VAN K. Sherwood	2.2	4	0.69	0	27%	0
NSH L. Evangelista	2.1	3	0.50	2	16%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	2.0	0	0.93	2	30%	0
VAN B. Boeser	1.9	6	0.70	3	27%	2
NSH R. O'Reilly	1.9	1	0.72	0	25%	0
NSH B. Skjei	1.8	2	0.48	1	14%	0
NSH M. Bunting	1.8	3	0.53	2	20%	1
NSH M. Wood	1.7	0	0.39	1	13%	0
NSH E. Haula	1.6	3	0.43	1	17%	1
VAN F. Hronek	1.5	3	0.57	1	10%	0
VAN D. O'Connor	1.4	1	0.36	0	14%	0
NSH T. Jost	1.4	1	0.27	0	10%	0
NSH N. Blankenburg	1.3	2	0.34	1	10%	1
VAN T. Myers	1.3	1	0.31	0	6%	0
NSH M. McCarron	1.3	1	0.27	0	13%	0
NSH F. Svechkov	1.2	1	0.24	1	11%	0
VAN L. Reichel	1.2	0	0.36	0	13%	0
NSH N. Perbix	1.2	0	0.34	0	9%	0
VAN A. Räty	1.1	1	0.37	0	15%	0
NSH N. Hague	1.1	0	0.20	0	6%	0
NSH O. Wiesblatt	1.1	0	0.26	0	10%	0
VAN L. Karlsson	1.1	2	0.24	1	9%	0
VAN M. Sasson	1.0	1	0.27	0	13%	0
NSH J. Barron	1.0	2	0.26	0	10%	0
VAN M. Pettersson	0.9	0	0.34	1	5%	0
VAN M. MacEachern	0.9	1	0.21	0	7%	0
NSH S. Stastney	0.7	0	0.23	1	5%	0
VAN A. Bains	0.7	1	0.15	1	8%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	0.7	0	0.13	1	4%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.