Game Recap: VAN 5, NYI 2, March 26, 2025

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Game Recap

VAN5

FinalWed, Mar 26, 2025Every game that night

NYI2

VAN beat NYI 5-2, with the chances close: 3.49 expected goals to 3.16. K. Sherwood led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). P. Engvall had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. T. Demko stopped 26 of 28.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
VAN	0	3	2	5
NYI	0	2	0	2

2nd 2:39VANK. Sherwood0.08 xG
2nd 5:35NYIC. CizikasSH0.28 xG
2nd 9:00NYIT. DeAngelo0.26 xG
2nd 13:59VANA. Räty0.12 xG
2nd 19:37VAND. Forbort0.07 xG
3rd 1:05VANT. Blueger0.10 xG
3rd 18:08VANK. SherwoodEN0.81 xG

Team Stats

VANNYI

25Shots on goal28

3.49Expected goals3.16

64Shot attempts66

205v5 shots on goal23

0/1Power play0/2

21Hits28

12Blocked shots18

6Penalty minutes4

18Giveaways14

4Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VAN 3.49 xGNYI 3.16 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VAN24 on goal, 5 scored

NYI28 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Sherwood	LW	2	1	3	4	4	1	+3	0	15:43	1:00
P. Suter	C	0	2	2	0	1	0	+1	2	18:55	1:00
D. O'Connor	LW	0	2	2	0	0	0	+2	0	15:41	0:00
C. Garland	RW	0	1	1	3	0	2	0	0	16:36	1:00
J. DeBrusk	LW	0	1	1	2	0	1	+1	0	15:16	1:00
T. Blueger	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	15:05	0:00
A. Räty	C	1	0	1	3	2	0	+2	0	10:48	0:00
B. Boeser	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	17:43	1:00
D. Joshua	C	0	0	0	1	7	0	+1	0	12:41	0:00
L. Karlsson	C	0	0	0	3	4	0	0	0	12:25	1:00
J. Lekkerimäki	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	12:00	1:00
N. Aman	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	11:31	0:00
F. Hronek	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	25:42	1:00
Q. Hughes	D	0	1	1	1	0	3	-1	2	24:03	1:00
M. Pettersson	D	0	1	1	2	1	2	+3	2	18:45	0:00
D. Forbort	D	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	16:04	0:00
T. Myers	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+4	0	22:39	1:00
E. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12:23	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
T. Demko	28	26	2	.929	60:00	Win
A. Silovs	0	0	0	–	0:00

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Cizikas	C	1	1	2	2	2	0	+2	0	13:19	0:00
J. Pageau	C	0	1	1	0	1	1	-1	0	16:14	2:06
B. Horvat	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-2	2	21:13	3:19
K. Palmieri	C	0	0	0	0	4	1	-1	0	18:31	1:36
A. Lee	LW	0	0	0	4	1	1	-2	0	17:41	1:58
S. Holmstrom	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	17:28	1:55
A. Duclair	LW	0	0	0	2	1	1	-2	2	16:40	2:05
P. Engvall	LW	0	0	0	5	4	0	+1	0	12:53	0:00
M. Gatcomb	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	-2	0	11:22	0:00
H. Fasching	RW	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	11:15	0:26
M. Tsyplakov	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	11:04	0:00
K. MacLean	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	-2	0	10:23	0:00
T. DeAngelo	D	1	0	1	4	1	2	-1	0	22:55	2:52
N. Dobson	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	23:10	2:20
A. Pelech	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-2	0	21:34	0:00
A. Romanov	D	0	0	0	2	3	5	+1	0	20:43	0:00
R. Pulock	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	16:23	1:08
M. Reilly	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	15:26	1:40

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Sorokin	19	15	4	.789	41:05	Loss
M. Hogberg	5	5	0	1.000	16:41

Storylines That Played Out

HometownDrew O'Connor VAN Plays near home (born in Chatham)2 A, 0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VAN 2.9, NYI 3.0	VAN 5, NYI 2
Total goals	5.9	7
Shots on goal	VAN 26.2, NYI 27.7	VAN 25, NYI 28
Win chance	NYI 52%	VAN won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NYI B. Horvat	2.8	2	0.78	0	32%	0
VAN Q. Hughes	2.7	1	1.10	1	14%	0
NYI A. Lee	2.2	4	0.57	0	25%	0
NYI K. Palmieri	2.2	0	0.70	0	28%	0
NYI N. Dobson	2.2	1	0.62	0	14%	0
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.2	2	0.59	1	28%	0
VAN C. Garland	2.1	3	0.58	1	22%	0
VAN B. Boeser	2.0	2	0.74	0	31%	0
NYI T. DeAngelo	2.0	4	0.63	1	14%	1
VAN P. Suter	1.8	0	0.49	2	22%	0
VAN K. Sherwood	1.6	4	0.42	3	18%	2
NYI A. Pelech	1.5	1	0.34	0	5%	0
VAN F. Hronek	1.5	0	0.52	1	7%	0
NYI J. Pageau	1.4	0	0.54	1	17%	0
VAN D. O'Connor	1.4	0	0.32	2	15%	0
NYI A. Duclair	1.4	2	0.49	0	23%	0
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.4	1	0.59	0	24%	0
NYI A. Romanov	1.3	2	0.32	0	8%	0
NYI M. Reilly	1.3	2	0.23	0	6%	0
NYI P. Engvall	1.2	5	0.30	0	13%	0
VAN J. Lekkerimäki	1.2	0	0.25	0	12%	0
VAN T. Myers	1.2	1	0.31	0	4%	0
NYI R. Pulock	1.2	0	0.31	0	8%	0
VAN T. Blueger	1.1	2	0.30	1	9%	1
NYI C. Cizikas	1.1	2	0.25	2	10%	1
NYI M. Tsyplakov	1.0	1	0.35	0	10%	0
NYI H. Fasching	0.9	0	0.25	0	10%	0
VAN M. Pettersson	0.9	2	0.32	1	3%	0
VAN D. Joshua	0.9	1	0.31	0	15%	0
VAN L. Karlsson	0.8	3	0.14	0	9%	0
VAN A. Räty	0.8	3	0.20	1	10%	1
NYI K. MacLean	0.8	0	0.19	0	9%	0
NYI M. Gatcomb	0.8	1	0.25	0	14%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	0.7	0	0.13	0	2%	0
VAN D. Forbort	0.6	1	0.15	1	3%	1
VAN N. Aman	0.6	0	0.20	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.