Game Recap: VAN 4, NYI 1, December 19, 2025

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Game Recap

VAN4

FinalFri, Dec 19, 2025Every game that night

NYI1

VAN beat NYI 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.07 expected goals to 2.27. K. Sherwood scored three for VAN. M. Gatcomb had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. T. Demko stopped 23 of 24.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
VAN	3	0	1	4
NYI	0	0	1	1

1st 8:57VAND. Kampf0.11 xG
1st 10:35VANK. Sherwood0.06 xG
1st 15:47VANK. SherwoodPP0.20 xG
3rd 14:55NYIA. Lee0.11 xG
3rd 18:39VANK. SherwoodEN0.59 xG

Team Stats

VANNYI

31Shots on goal24

3.07Expected goals2.27

53Shot attempts53

255v5 shots on goal14

1/3Power play0/4

10Hits21

14Blocked shots12

6Penalty minutes6

17Giveaways16

6Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VAN 3.07 xGNYI 2.27 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VAN31 on goal, 4 scored

NYI24 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Sherwood	LW	3	0	3	3	2	0	+2	2	15:13	1:22
D. Kampf	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	16:37	0:00
J. DeBrusk	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	16:02	3:58
E. Kane	LW	0	1	1	5	1	0	+2	0	14:38	1:25
C. Garland	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	20:14	3:53
B. Boeser	RW	0	0	0	3	0	3	-1	0	19:42	4:25
M. Rossi	C	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	0	19:07	4:21
D. O'Connor	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	13:40	0:00
L. Karlsson	C	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	11:21	1:48
N. Hoglander	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	2	11:13	0:00
M. Sasson	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	10:05	0:00
L. Ohgren	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	8:53	0:00
F. Hronek	D	0	2	2	1	0	1	+1	0	24:11	1:53
M. Pettersson	D	0	1	1	3	0	3	+1	0	25:21	0:00
T. Willander	D	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	2	14:02	1:21
T. Myers	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	21:22	0:00
Z. Buium	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+2	0	18:13	4:24
E. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	13:10	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
T. Demko	24	23	1	.958	60:00	Win
K. Lankinen	0	0	0	–	0:00

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Barzal	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	-1	0	23:01	4:35
A. Lee	LW	1	0	1	3	2	0	0	0	18:08	1:46
C. Ritchie	C	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	11:27	1:36
E. Heineman	LW	0	0	0	1	4	0	-1	0	20:39	2:49
S. Holmstrom	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	16:15	0:27
J. Drouin	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	16:06	3:51
C. Cizikas	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	15:52	0:56
A. Duclair	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	15:40	2:51
J. Pageau	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	14:27	0:02
M. Gatcomb	C	0	0	0	5	5	0	0	2	11:12	0:56
M. Shabanov	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	11:04	1:41
K. MacLean	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	9:51	0:56
M. Schaefer	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	2	21:37	3:58
R. Pulock	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	20:39	0:23
T. DeAngelo	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	20:09	1:11
S. Mayfield	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	19:38	0:56
A. Pelech	D	0	0	0	0	1	4	0	2	19:37	0:00
A. Boqvist	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	12:31	0:56

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Sorokin	30	27	3	.900	56:21	Loss
D. Rittich	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

VAN

Line 1B. Boeser12:18M. Rossi13:00C. Garland12:26

Line 2D. Kampf12:58N. Hoglander11:11J. DeBrusk10:47

Line 3E. Kane12:00K. Sherwood10:56D. O'Connor11:31

Line 4L. Karlsson8:55L. Ohgren8:53M. Sasson8:48

Pair 1M. Pettersson18:56F. Hronek18:42

Pair 2T. Myers15:16Z. Buium13:49

Pair 3E. Pettersson11:08T. Willander11:31

NYI

Line 1A. Lee13:22S. Holmstrom13:28M. Barzal15:23

Line 2C. Cizikas11:32M. Gatcomb10:16K. MacLean8:55

Line 3E. Heineman11:55J. Drouin10:12J. Pageau10:12

Line 4A. Duclair12:08M. Shabanov8:35C. Ritchie7:02

Pair 1A. Pelech16:00T. DeAngelo17:32

Pair 2R. Pulock15:40M. Schaefer14:22

Pair 3S. Mayfield14:56A. Boqvist11:35

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

HometownDrew O'Connor VAN Plays near home (born in Chatham)2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VAN 2.7, NYI 2.9	VAN 4, NYI 1
Total goals	5.6	5
Shots on goal	VAN 25.6, NYI 28.5	VAN 31, NYI 24
Win chance	NYI 54%	VAN won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NYI M. Barzal	2.7	2	1.01	1	26%	0
NYI M. Schaefer	2.7	2	0.70	0	19%	0
VAN C. Garland	2.4	2	0.66	0	24%	0
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.4	1	0.56	1	27%	0
NYI A. Lee	2.3	3	0.56	1	23%	1
VAN B. Boeser	2.3	3	0.72	0	30%	0
VAN E. Kane	2.3	5	0.48	1	24%	0
VAN K. Sherwood	2.1	3	0.51	3	23%	3
NYI E. Heineman	1.8	1	0.51	0	24%	0
VAN M. Rossi	1.6	2	0.54	0	21%	0
NYI M. Shabanov	1.6	0	0.56	0	18%	0
NYI T. DeAngelo	1.6	1	0.42	0	9%	0
NYI A. Pelech	1.6	0	0.29	0	4%	0
NYI J. Drouin	1.5	3	0.76	0	18%	0
NYI A. Duclair	1.5	1	0.51	0	21%	0
VAN F. Hronek	1.4	1	0.47	2	7%	0
NYI R. Pulock	1.4	2	0.39	0	7%	0
VAN N. Hoglander	1.3	0	0.37	0	16%	0
VAN D. O'Connor	1.2	2	0.29	0	13%	0
NYI J. Pageau	1.2	0	0.50	0	16%	0
NYI C. Ritchie	1.2	0	0.30	1	14%	0
VAN L. Karlsson	1.2	4	0.28	0	12%	0
NYI M. Gatcomb	1.2	5	0.27	0	16%	0
VAN T. Myers	1.2	1	0.27	0	4%	0
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.2	2	0.50	0	20%	0
VAN L. Ohgren	1.1	1	0.15	0	8%	0
VAN M. Sasson	1.1	1	0.24	0	13%	0
VAN D. Kampf	1.0	1	0.25	1	11%	1
NYI C. Cizikas	1.0	0	0.27	0	10%	0
VAN Z. Buium	1.0	0	0.37	0	7%	0
NYI S. Mayfield	0.9	1	0.19	0	5%	0
NYI K. MacLean	0.9	0	0.22	0	9%	0
VAN M. Pettersson	0.9	3	0.28	1	4%	0
NYI A. Boqvist	0.8	1	0.23	0	6%	0
VAN T. Willander	0.7	1	0.25	1	3%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	0.6	0	0.14	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.