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Game Recap
VAN2
FinalTue, Oct 13, 2026Every game that night
NYI3

NYI beat VAN 3-2, with the chances close: 3.22 expected goals to 2.93. NYI outshot VAN 38 to 26. K. Palmieri led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). A. Pelech had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. I. Sorokin stopped 24 of 26.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
VAN0202
NYI2013
  1. 1st 14:57NYIK. Palmieri0.08 xG
  2. 1st 15:50NYIM. Maccelli0.12 xG
  3. 2nd 7:52VANM. Sasson0.09 xG
  4. 2nd 18:55VANB. BoeserPP0.12 xG
  5. 3rd 5:38NYIK. Palmieri0.06 xG

Team Stats

VANNYI
26Shots on goal38
2.93Expected goals3.22
54Shot attempts55
195v5 shots on goal27
1/4Power play0/3
33Hits18
12Blocked shots13
8Penalty minutes12
12Giveaways9
4Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VAN 2.93 xGNYI 3.22 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.51st2nd3rdNYI goal, 14:57NYI goal, 15:50VAN goal, 7:52VAN goal, 18:55NYI goal, 5:38

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VAN25 on goal, 2 scored
NYI34 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VAN Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
E. PetterssonC011210-1021:034:18
B. BoeserRW101300-2017:494:15
M. SassonC101101+1011:400:09
A. BainsLW011120+1010:550:00
M. RossiC0002100018:022:49
J. DeBruskLW000212-1017:124:38
J. LekkerimäkiRW000100-1016:354:32
P. CotterLW0000500015:302:35
D. O'ConnorLW000230-2214:550:00
L. OhgrenLW000220-2014:493:12
L. KarlssonC0002000013:023:11
B. GallagherRW000222+1011:330:00
F. HronekD0111200024:534:16
J. OleksiakD0111320016:500:00
T. WillanderD0002430025:433:11
E. PetterssonD0000210216:370:00
Z. BuiumD000001-2216:320:09
L. SchennD000250-2211:100:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
L. Meriläinen38353.92159:29Loss
K. Lankinen000–0:00

NYI Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
K. PalmieriC202201+2216:444:03
M. MaccelliLW112500+2015:264:07
B. HorvatC011320+2019:494:55
B. SchennC000300-1216:414:29
J. PageauC0002330014:590:55
C. RitchieC000000-1014:370:27
V. EklundRW000310-1013:490:24
O. PalatLW0000310013:440:00
S. HolmstromRW000401+1013:150:01
E. HeinemanLW000331+1012:320:00
C. CizikasC000001+1012:240:00
A. DuclairLW0000000011:080:18
M. SchaeferD022421+2025:235:05
M. KesselD0111100013:510:27
L. StanleyD000011+2420:440:27
R. PulockD0000010020:100:00
A. PelechD0005020219:560:55
T. DeAngeloD0003200217:020:17
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
I. Sorokin26242.92360:00Win
S. Varlamov000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

VAN

Line 1P. Cotter12:55M. Rossi14:21L. Karlsson9:51
Line 2J. DeBrusk11:20E. Pettersson12:21J. Lekkerimäki12:03
Line 3B. Gallagher11:33A. Bains10:55M. Sasson9:43
Line 4D. O'Connor11:36L. Ohgren11:37B. Boeser12:03
Pair 1J. Oleksiak16:20T. Willander20:43
Pair 2F. Hronek15:26E. Pettersson14:39
Pair 3L. Schenn10:31Z. Buium16:23

NYI

Line 1C. Ritchie13:51V. Eklund13:25B. Schenn12:03
Line 2K. Palmieri12:41B. Horvat12:29E. Heineman10:31
Line 3O. Palat11:34J. Pageau11:04A. Duclair10:50
Line 4C. Cizikas9:33S. Holmstrom10:40M. Maccelli11:19
Pair 1L. Stanley18:08M. Schaefer19:49
Pair 2A. Pelech14:32R. Pulock14:03
Pair 3T. DeAngelo16:45M. Kessel11:03

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

10 of 16 overs hit (63%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
NYI B. Horvat2.5-160+1353Over
VAN J. DeBrusk2.5+115-1302Under
NYI K. Palmieri2.5-105-1152Under
NYI M. Schaefer2.5-160+1264Over
NYI A. Duclair1.5+108-1350Under
NYI A. Pelech1.5+110-1405Over
VAN B. Boeser1.5-130+1303Over
NYI B. Schenn1.5-118+1203Over
NYI C. Ritchie1.5+105-1300Under
NYI E. Heineman1.5-128+1003Over
VAN F. Hronek1.5-115+1001Under
NYI M. Maccelli1.5+110-1205Over
VAN M. Rossi1.5+100-1452Over
NYI R. Pulock1.5+115-1450Under
NYI S. Holmstrom1.5-120-1104Over
NYI T. DeAngelo1.5-115-1103Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreVAN 2.6, NYI 3.4VAN 2, NYI 3
Total goals6.05
Shots on goalVAN 23.7, NYI 30.4VAN 26, NYI 38
Win chanceNYI 64%NYI won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
NYI B. Horvat3.230.97136%0
NYI M. Schaefer2.940.96222%0
VAN J. DeBrusk2.320.50024%0
NYI K. Palmieri2.220.73227%2
NYI E. Heineman1.830.43022%0
NYI B. Schenn1.830.78025%0
VAN B. Boeser1.830.57124%1
VAN E. Pettersson1.720.69124%0
VAN D. O'Connor1.720.36017%0
NYI T. DeAngelo1.730.52010%0
VAN L. Karlsson1.620.45017%0
VAN F. Hronek1.610.5618%0
NYI M. Maccelli1.650.73220%1
NYI V. Eklund1.430.52017%0
NYI L. Stanley1.400.4408%0
VAN L. Ohgren1.420.37015%0
NYI C. Ritchie1.400.57020%0
VAN M. Rossi1.420.55020%0
NYI A. Pelech1.350.3305%0
VAN J. Lekkerimäki1.310.37015%0
NYI A. Duclair1.300.47020%0
NYI C. Cizikas1.200.30012%0
VAN B. Gallagher1.220.24011%0
NYI S. Holmstrom1.240.57021%0
NYI J. Pageau1.220.55018%0
NYI O. Palat1.200.36015%0
VAN P. Cotter1.100.31016%0
VAN E. Pettersson1.000.2207%0
NYI R. Pulock1.000.3506%0
VAN T. Willander0.920.3507%0
VAN M. Sasson0.910.26113%1
VAN J. Oleksiak0.910.2115%0
VAN Z. Buium0.800.2806%0
VAN A. Bains0.710.1617%0
VAN L. Schenn0.720.1202%0

Shots on goal: 16 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.