Game Recap: VAN 3, NYR 5, March 22, 2025

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Game Recap

VAN3

FinalSat, Mar 22, 2025Every game that night

NYR5

NYR beat VAN 5-3 despite fewer good chances: 1.07 expected goals to 3.62. VAN outshot NYR 39 to 12. J. Brodzinski led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). Q. Hughes had 9 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. I. Shesterkin stopped 36 of 39.

Team Stats

VANNYR

39Shots on goal12

3.62Expected goals1.07

67Shot attempts34

265v5 shots on goal8

0/3Power play0/1

37Hits57

12Blocked shots11

6Penalty minutes10

19Giveaways21

1Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VAN 3.62 xGNYR 1.07 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VAN38 on goal, 3 scored

NYR10 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Aman	C	0	2	2	1	0	0	+1	0	10:29	0:00
B. Boeser	RW	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	20:01	2:50
J. DeBrusk	LW	0	1	1	8	2	1	-1	4	18:00	1:03
D. O'Connor	LW	1	0	1	2	3	0	-1	2	15:08	0:00
D. Joshua	C	1	0	1	3	4	0	0	0	13:19	0:04
P. Suter	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	20:19	3:18
C. Garland	RW	0	0	0	2	2	1	-1	0	20:12	2:47
T. Blueger	C	0	0	0	3	3	2	-1	0	17:50	0:07
K. Sherwood	LW	0	0	0	0	12	0	-3	0	15:19	1:09
J. Lekkerimäki	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	14:32	2:40
E. Pettersson	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	7:50	0:09
N. Hoglander	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	7:03	0:00
Q. Hughes	D	0	1	1	9	0	0	0	0	28:25	4:07
V. Mancini	D	0	1	1	1	3	2	-1	0	14:33	0:00
F. Hronek	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	23:13	2:21
M. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	20:10	0:00
T. Myers	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	-1	0	19:42	0:00
D. Forbort	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	-1	0	12:22	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Lankinen	11	7	4	.636	57:33	Loss
A. Silovs	0	0	0	–	0:00

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Miller	C	1	1	2	3	6	2	+2	0	17:02	0:00
A. Lafrenière	LW	0	2	2	1	3	0	+1	0	15:11	0:00
J. Brodzinski	C	2	0	2	2	0	1	+1	0	15:00	0:00
V. Trocheck	C	0	1	1	0	6	1	+1	0	19:58	0:00
B. Othmann	LW	0	1	1	0	5	0	+1	0	8:17	0:00
C. Kreider	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	17:56	0:18
M. Zibanejad	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	16:56	0:18
A. Panarin	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	15:34	0:00
W. Cuylle	LW	0	0	0	0	8	1	+1	4	14:58	0:18
S. Carrick	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	2	12:34	0:00
J. Parssinen	C	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	2	9:17	0:00
M. Rempe	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	2	9:07	0:00
A. Fox	D	1	1	2	1	0	0	+3	0	23:31	0:13
K. Miller	D	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	24:57	0:11
B. Schneider	D	0	1	1	0	6	2	+1	0	20:20	0:00
W. Borgen	D	0	1	1	0	3	0	0	0	17:26	0:05
C. Soucy	D	0	1	1	0	6	1	+1	0	16:22	0:07
Z. Jones	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	17:34	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Shesterkin	39	36	3	.923	60:00	Win
J. Quick	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamJ.T. Miller NYR Faces VAN, his team until Jan 20251 G, 1 A, 3 SOG
HometownDrew O'Connor VAN Plays near home (born in Chatham)1 G, 2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VAN 2.7, NYR 3.0	VAN 3, NYR 5
Total goals	5.7	8
Shots on goal	VAN 25.1, NYR 26.3	VAN 39, NYR 12
Win chance	NYR 55%	NYR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NYR A. Panarin	2.8	0	1.18	0	34%	0
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.3	0	0.87	0	27%	0
VAN Q. Hughes	2.2	9	0.97	1	13%	0
NYR V. Trocheck	2.2	0	0.79	1	25%	0
NYR C. Kreider	2.1	1	0.60	0	32%	0
VAN C. Garland	2.1	2	0.56	0	21%	0
VAN B. Boeser	2.0	1	0.71	1	28%	1
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.0	8	0.55	1	26%	0
NYR J. Miller	1.9	3	1.02	2	29%	1
VAN E. Pettersson	1.8	0	0.78	0	27%	0
NYR W. Cuylle	1.8	0	0.47	0	20%	0
NYR A. Lafrenière	1.7	1	0.54	2	21%	0
VAN K. Sherwood	1.7	0	0.44	0	18%	0
VAN P. Suter	1.6	2	0.45	0	20%	0
NYR A. Fox	1.5	1	0.76	2	14%	1
VAN N. Hoglander	1.4	1	0.40	0	17%	0
NYR J. Brodzinski	1.4	2	0.32	2	12%	2
VAN D. O'Connor	1.4	2	0.30	1	13%	1
VAN F. Hronek	1.4	1	0.48	0	7%	0
NYR K. Miller	1.2	2	0.33	1	10%	1
VAN J. Lekkerimäki	1.2	1	0.23	0	11%	0
NYR S. Carrick	1.1	0	0.28	0	12%	0
VAN T. Myers	1.1	2	0.29	0	4%	0
VAN T. Blueger	1.1	3	0.29	0	9%	0
NYR Z. Jones	1.1	1	0.27	0	6%	0
NYR B. Schneider	1.0	0	0.22	1	7%	0
NYR W. Borgen	1.0	0	0.24	1	6%	0
VAN V. Mancini	0.9	1	0.22	1	4%	0
VAN D. Joshua	0.9	3	0.32	1	15%	1
VAN M. Pettersson	0.9	1	0.29	0	3%	0
NYR B. Othmann	0.9	0	0.09	1	7%	0
NYR M. Rempe	0.7	1	0.17	0	8%	0
NYR C. Soucy	0.7	0	0.18	1	7%	0
VAN D. Forbort	0.6	1	0.14	0	3%	0
NYR J. Parssinen	0.6	0	0.23	0	9%	0
VAN N. Aman	0.6	1	0.18	2	7%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.