Game Recap: VAN 3, NYR 0, December 16, 2025

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Game Recap

VAN3

FinalTue, Dec 16, 2025Every game that night

NYR0

VAN beat NYR 3-0 despite fewer good chances: 1.63 expected goals to 2.95. A. Panarin had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 3.0. T. Demko stopped 23 of 23.

Team Stats

VANNYR

17Shots on goal23

1.63Expected goals2.95

32Shot attempts59

155v5 shots on goal17

0/3Power play0/4

20Hits26

13Blocked shots6

8Penalty minutes6

14Giveaways12

4Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VAN 1.63 xGNYR 2.95 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VAN16 on goal, 2 scored

NYR23 on goal, 0 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Boeser	RW	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	19:53	4:03
C. Garland	RW	1	0	1	3	1	1	+1	0	19:14	3:09
E. Kane	LW	1	0	1	2	2	1	+1	0	14:48	2:09
L. Karlsson	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	2	8:19	0:59
L. Ohgren	LW	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	0	7:15	0:00
J. DeBrusk	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	19:20	3:17
M. Rossi	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	2	18:59	3:06
K. Sherwood	LW	0	0	0	3	6	0	+1	0	17:07	0:47
D. Kampf	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	14:08	0:24
D. O'Connor	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	13:40	0:00
N. Hoglander	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	11:40	0:48
M. Sasson	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	9:25	0:00
F. Hronek	D	0	1	1	2	1	1	+2	0	24:05	2:32
E. Pettersson	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	0	13:10	0:00
M. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	+1	0	23:27	0:00
T. Myers	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	+1	2	22:51	0:44
Z. Buium	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	2	22:28	4:17
T. Willander	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12:20	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
T. Demko	23	23	0	1.000	59:51	Win
K. Lankinen	0	0	0	–	0:00

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Miller	C	3	1	0	-1	0	22:21	6:23
M. Zibanejad	C	2	0	0	-1	0	22:15	6:31
V. Trocheck	C	3	3	1	-1	4	22:13	6:15
A. Panarin	LW	8	0	0	-1	0	21:29	6:30
W. Cuylle	LW	0	5	0	-1	0	20:20	6:08
A. Lafrenière	LW	1	1	0	-1	0	18:22	1:58
C. Sheary	LW	1	0	0	-1	0	15:12	0:55
N. Laba	C	1	4	1	-1	2	14:51	1:06
T. Raddysh	RW	0	0	1	-1	0	11:28	0:20
S. Carrick	C	1	1	0	-1	0	8:43	0:00
M. Rempe	C	0	3	0	-1	0	7:07	0:32
J. Chmelar	RW	0	1	0	-1	0	6:01	0:00
V. Gavrikov	D	0	0	0	-1	0	23:54	1:22
B. Schneider	D	2	3	1	-1	0	20:29	0:25
C. Soucy	D	0	0	1	0	0	17:28	0:00
W. Borgen	D	0	0	0	0	0	16:38	0:00
S. Morrow	D	0	2	1	-1	0	15:18	0:20
M. Robertson	D	1	2	0	-1	0	11:44	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Quick	16	14	2	.875	58:26	Loss
I. Shesterkin	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

VAN

Line 1M. Rossi14:59B. Boeser14:42J. DeBrusk13:43

Line 2E. Kane12:20K. Sherwood12:19D. O'Connor11:06

Line 3C. Garland12:24N. Hoglander10:43D. Kampf10:29

Line 4L. Karlsson7:20L. Ohgren7:15M. Sasson9:10

Pair 1M. Pettersson18:33F. Hronek16:45

Pair 2T. Myers17:35Z. Buium18:02

Pair 3E. Pettersson10:02T. Willander12:03

NYR

Line 1A. Lafrenière15:19A. Panarin14:20M. Zibanejad13:38

Line 2V. Trocheck14:15J. Miller13:27W. Cuylle12:22

Line 3C. Sheary13:00N. Laba11:59T. Raddysh10:22

Line 4S. Carrick7:29M. Rempe6:32J. Chmelar5:58

Pair 1C. Soucy15:09W. Borgen14:31

Pair 2V. Gavrikov18:41B. Schneider16:04

Pair 3S. Morrow14:49M. Robertson11:35

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamJ.T. Miller NYR Faces VAN, his team until Jan 20253 SOG
HometownDrew O'Connor VAN Plays near home (born in Chatham)1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VAN 2.9, NYR 2.9	VAN 3, NYR 0
Total goals	5.8	3
Shots on goal	VAN 26.5, NYR 26.2	VAN 17, NYR 23
Win chance	NYR 51%	VAN won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NYR A. Panarin	3.0	8	1.21	0	34%	0
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.6	2	0.86	0	27%	0
VAN C. Garland	2.6	3	0.70	1	24%	1
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.5	0	0.58	0	27%	0
VAN B. Boeser	2.4	1	0.75	1	30%	0
VAN E. Kane	2.4	2	0.50	1	24%	1
NYR V. Trocheck	2.3	3	0.89	0	28%	0
NYR J. Miller	2.3	3	1.05	0	31%	0
VAN K. Sherwood	2.2	3	0.56	0	24%	0
NYR W. Cuylle	2.0	0	0.56	0	22%	0
NYR A. Lafrenière	1.9	1	0.62	0	23%	0
VAN M. Rossi	1.6	0	0.55	0	20%	0
NYR C. Sheary	1.5	1	0.40	0	14%	0
NYR V. Gavrikov	1.5	0	0.41	0	10%	0
VAN F. Hronek	1.4	2	0.46	1	7%	0
VAN N. Hoglander	1.4	2	0.41	0	17%	0
NYR B. Schneider	1.4	2	0.28	0	8%	0
VAN L. Karlsson	1.3	0	0.29	1	12%	0
VAN D. O'Connor	1.3	1	0.30	0	13%	0
NYR N. Laba	1.2	1	0.34	0	15%	0
VAN M. Sasson	1.2	0	0.27	0	14%	0
VAN T. Myers	1.2	0	0.26	0	4%	0
VAN L. Ohgren	1.2	2	0.15	1	8%	1
NYR S. Morrow	1.2	0	0.24	0	5%	0
NYR M. Robertson	1.1	1	0.24	0	7%	0
VAN D. Kampf	1.1	0	0.27	0	11%	0
NYR W. Borgen	1.1	0	0.22	0	6%	0
NYR C. Soucy	0.9	0	0.21	0	7%	0
VAN Z. Buium	0.9	1	0.35	0	6%	0
VAN M. Pettersson	0.9	0	0.28	0	4%	0
NYR T. Raddysh	0.8	0	0.22	0	9%	0
NYR S. Carrick	0.8	1	0.18	0	7%	0
NYR M. Rempe	0.8	0	0.19	0	9%	0
VAN T. Willander	0.8	0	0.27	0	3%	0
NYR J. Chmelar	0.7	0	0.14	0	8%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	0.7	0	0.13	1	4%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.