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Game Recap
VAN2
FinalSun, Oct 11, 2026Every game that night
NYR6

NYR beat VAN 6-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.80 expected goals to 1.62. T. Kartye led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). D. Garand stopped 19 of 21.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
VAN1102
NYR1236
  1. 1st 0:27NYRT. Kartye0.40 xG
  2. 1st 17:04VANJ. DeBrusk0.03 xG
  3. 2nd 2:09NYRW. Cuylle0.04 xG
  4. 2nd 16:56VANE. PetterssonSH0.08 xG
  5. 2nd 18:25NYRT. Kartye0.06 xG
  6. 3rd 1:04NYRA. LafrenièrePP0.26 xG
  7. 3rd 5:57NYRG. Perreault0.18 xG
  8. 3rd 15:22NYRW. Cuylle0.31 xG

Team Stats

VANNYR
21Shots on goal25
1.62Expected goals3.80
54Shot attempts56
195v5 shots on goal20
0/1Power play1/2
33Hits22
14Blocked shots14
4Penalty minutes2
16Giveaways18
7Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VAN 1.62 xGNYR 3.80 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.541st2nd3rdNYR goal, 0:27VAN goal, 17:04NYR goal, 2:09VAN goal, 16:56NYR goal, 18:25NYR goal, 1:04NYR goal, 5:57NYR goal, 15:22

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VAN21 on goal, 2 scored
NYR25 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VAN Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
D. O'ConnorLW011022-1016:070:00
J. LekkerimäkiRW011330-1014:520:55
B. GallagherRW0111300013:000:06
J. DeBruskLW101110-1012:250:55
B. BoeserRW0001000218:400:55
E. PetterssonC000141-1017:040:55
P. CotterLW0001100016:090:54
M. RossiC0001200015:310:55
L. OhgrenLW000020-2015:230:59
M. SassonC000010-1013:120:10
A. RätyC000130-1012:370:11
L. KarlssonC000300-2011:550:53
E. PetterssonD101241+2021:300:00
F. HronekD000124-2027:120:55
T. WillanderD000201+2022:140:12
Z. BuiumD000100-2021:581:05
L. SchennD000034-3013:400:00
G. BriseboisD000221-3212:440:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
K. Lankinen25196.76060:00Loss
L. Meriläinen000–0:00

NYR Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
M. ZibanejadC0223120219:273:20
A. LafrenièreLW1122100019:193:20
G. PerreaultRW112200+1018:531:31
J. MillerC022110+2018:293:18
T. KartyeLW202310+2015:390:00
W. CuylleLW202340+1015:390:29
N. LabaC011120+1013:080:00
E. TolvanenRW011230+2012:070:27
P. DorofeyevRW0002110018:092:16
C. BeaudoinC0000210010:440:00
O. BjorkstrandRW000101-1010:180:26
J. ChmelarRW000100009:280:00
A. FoxD0112150021:133:20
V. GavrikovD011101+3020:220:01
B. SchneiderD011032+3016:470:00
M. PetterssonD0000110021:380:00
S. DurziD0001000019:080:27
A. SmitsD000010+1017:320:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
D. Garand21192.90560:00Win
S. Martin000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

VAN

Line 1P. Cotter15:15M. Rossi14:36B. Boeser16:31
Line 2E. Pettersson13:52J. Lekkerimäki13:57J. DeBrusk11:30
Line 3D. O'Connor13:24L. Ohgren14:24L. Karlsson11:02
Line 4B. Gallagher12:41A. Räty12:26M. Sasson11:55
Pair 1F. Hronek24:02Z. Buium20:53
Pair 2E. Pettersson18:48T. Willander21:33
Pair 3L. Schenn11:50G. Brisebois12:26

NYR

Line 1M. Zibanejad16:07G. Perreault17:22P. Dorofeyev15:53
Line 2A. Lafrenière15:59J. Miller14:51T. Kartye14:54
Line 3E. Tolvanen11:22W. Cuylle13:48N. Laba11:55
Line 4O. Bjorkstrand9:52C. Beaudoin10:44J. Chmelar9:28
Pair 1M. Pettersson20:41S. Durzi17:56
Pair 2V. Gavrikov19:04A. Fox17:40
Pair 3A. Smits17:32B. Schneider15:57

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

7 of 15 overs hit (47%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
VAN J. DeBrusk2.5+105-1251Under
NYR M. Zibanejad2.5-130+1023Over
NYR P. Dorofeyev2.5-150+1352Under
NYR A. Fox1.5-115-1102Over
NYR A. Lafrenière1.5-195+1402Over
VAN B. Boeser1.5-150+1361Under
VAN D. O'Connor1.5+105-1200Under
NYR E. Tolvanen1.5+100-1202Over
VAN F. Hronek1.5+108-1201Under
NYR G. Perreault1.5+110-1152Over
NYR J. Miller1.5-185+1401Under
VAN L. Karlsson1.5-110-1153Over
VAN M. Rossi1.5-110–1Under
NYR V. Gavrikov1.5+120-1451Under
NYR W. Cuylle1.5-130+1253Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreVAN 2.4, NYR 3.6VAN 2, NYR 6
Total goals6.18
Shots on goalVAN 23.8, NYR 27.7VAN 21, NYR 25
Win chanceNYR 68%NYR won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
NYR P. Dorofeyev3.120.94039%0
NYR M. Zibanejad2.631.19234%0
VAN J. DeBrusk2.510.51124%1
NYR A. Lafrenière2.220.91230%1
NYR J. Miller2.111.10230%0
NYR W. Cuylle2.030.57222%2
VAN B. Boeser1.910.60025%0
VAN E. Pettersson1.710.69023%0
VAN F. Hronek1.710.4707%0
VAN D. O'Connor1.700.34116%0
NYR E. Tolvanen1.620.47120%0
NYR A. Fox1.621.14117%0
VAN L. Karlsson1.630.45016%0
NYR G. Perreault1.520.61222%1
VAN M. Rossi1.410.57020%0
VAN L. Ohgren1.400.35013%0
NYR T. Kartye1.430.54219%2
NYR V. Gavrikov1.410.47111%0
NYR O. Bjorkstrand1.310.42016%0
VAN J. Lekkerimäki1.330.36116%0
NYR S. Durzi1.310.51010%0
NYR B. Schneider1.100.2816%0
VAN B. Gallagher1.110.22110%0
VAN Z. Buium1.110.2706%0
NYR N. Laba1.110.39114%0
VAN P. Cotter1.010.28015%0
VAN T. Willander0.920.3006%0
VAN A. Räty0.910.20010%0
VAN M. Sasson0.900.25013%0
NYR J. Chmelar0.910.26013%0
NYR M. Pettersson0.800.3405%0
VAN E. Pettersson0.820.1314%1
VAN L. Schenn0.700.1002%0
NYR A. Smits0.600.1705%0

Shots on goal: 22 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.