Game Recap: VAN 3, SEA 2 (SO), December 29, 2025

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Game Recap

VAN3

Final/SOMon, Dec 29, 2025Every game that night

SEA2

VAN beat SEA 3-2 in a shootout despite fewer good chances: 2.09 expected goals to 4.19. SEA outshot VAN 39 to 24. E. Tolvanen had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. K. Lankinen stopped 37 of 39.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
VAN	1	1	0	1	3
SEA	2	0	0	0	2

1st 8:50SEAJ. McCannPP0.19 xG
1st 15:20VANL. Karlsson0.12 xG
1st 19:40SEAR. Winterton0.20 xG
2nd 5:23VANE. Pettersson0.09 xG

Team Stats

VANSEA

24Shots on goal39

2.09Expected goals4.19

65Shot attempts63

195v5 shots on goal26

0/2Power play1/6

22Hits21

15Blocked shots17

15Penalty minutes9

12Giveaways14

5Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VAN 2.09 xGSEA 4.19 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VAN24 on goal, 2 scored

SEA39 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
E. Pettersson	C	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	2	20:31	1:16
E. Kane	LW	0	1	1	2	1	1	0	2	18:53	0:54
L. Ohgren	LW	0	1	1	1	2	1	+1	0	13:13	0:00
L. Karlsson	C	1	0	1	2	2	0	+1	2	10:10	1:08
B. Boeser	RW	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	22:36	1:41
M. Rossi	C	0	0	0	3	1	1	+1	0	19:16	1:13
C. Garland	RW	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	5	16:15	0:57
K. Sherwood	LW	0	0	0	4	5	0	0	0	16:14	0:29
D. O'Connor	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	13:31	1:02
A. Räty	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	11:02	0:00
M. Sasson	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	9:12	0:00
N. Hoglander	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	9:03	0:00
T. Willander	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	0	0	15:23	0:00
F. Hronek	D	0	0	0	0	1	4	+1	0	29:20	1:02
M. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	28:59	0:00
T. Myers	D	0	0	0	1	3	2	0	2	19:29	0:00
Z. Buium	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	16:37	1:08
E. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	16:17	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Lankinen	39	37	2	.949	65:00	Win
T. Demko	0	0	0	–	0:00

SEA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Eberle	RW	0	1	1	4	1	1	-1	0	19:57	5:09
J. McCann	LW	1	0	1	3	0	0	-1	5	16:05	4:15
R. Winterton	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	10:01	0:03
J. Melanson	RW	0	1	1	1	4	0	+1	0	8:30	0:04
C. Stephenson	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	22:55	5:25
E. Tolvanen	RW	0	0	0	6	2	3	0	2	22:37	4:36
M. Beniers	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	21:06	3:52
F. Gaudreau	C	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	0	20:33	0:12
K. Kakko	RW	0	0	0	3	2	0	-1	0	15:45	3:02
S. Wright	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	2	14:10	2:58
B. Catton	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	12:26	3:20
B. Meyers	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	+1	0	10:53	0:09
V. Dunn	D	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	0	26:27	5:59
A. Larsson	D	0	0	0	2	2	4	0	0	20:28	0:13
C. Fleury	D	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	20:20	0:00
R. Lindgren	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	18:41	0:00
R. Evans	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	18:28	3:01
J. Oleksiak	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	-1	0	13:52	0:03

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Daccord	24	22	2	.917	64:26	OT loss
P. Grubauer	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

VAN

Line 1B. Boeser17:19E. Pettersson16:01E. Kane16:28

Line 2M. Rossi14:41L. Ohgren13:13C. Garland10:46

Line 3K. Sherwood11:18D. O'Connor10:09A. Räty8:42

Line 4N. Hoglander9:03M. Sasson9:12L. Karlsson9:02

Pair 1M. Pettersson21:05F. Hronek19:35

Pair 2T. Myers15:03E. Pettersson14:32

Pair 3Z. Buium13:51T. Willander14:20

SEA

Line 1F. Gaudreau17:27E. Tolvanen16:47C. Stephenson15:38

Line 2J. Eberle13:04M. Beniers14:23K. Kakko12:43

Line 3S. Wright10:22B. Catton9:06J. McCann9:55

Line 4R. Winterton9:05B. Meyers9:38J. Melanson8:26

Pair 1A. Larsson18:56V. Dunn18:43

Pair 2C. Fleury18:02R. Lindgren16:32

Pair 3J. Oleksiak12:58R. Evans12:35

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VAN 3.1, SEA 2.9	VAN 3, SEA 2
Total goals	6.0	5
Shots on goal	VAN 26.9, SEA 26.7	VAN 24, SEA 39
Win chance	VAN 53%	VAN won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
VAN E. Kane	2.4	2	0.53	1	25%	0
SEA J. McCann	2.4	3	0.74	1	27%	1
VAN B. Boeser	2.2	1	0.73	0	30%	0
VAN C. Garland	2.2	2	0.63	0	22%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	2.2	2	0.93	1	31%	1
VAN K. Sherwood	2.1	4	0.52	0	24%	0
SEA J. Eberle	2.1	4	0.65	1	23%	0
SEA E. Tolvanen	2.0	6	0.63	0	24%	0
SEA V. Dunn	1.9	3	0.56	1	13%	0
SEA M. Beniers	1.8	0	0.58	0	20%	0
VAN M. Rossi	1.7	3	0.66	0	24%	0
VAN F. Hronek	1.5	0	0.49	0	6%	0
SEA K. Kakko	1.4	3	0.45	0	16%	0
SEA C. Stephenson	1.4	1	0.71	0	20%	0
SEA F. Gaudreau	1.3	3	0.43	0	18%	0
SEA S. Wright	1.3	1	0.47	0	18%	0
SEA A. Larsson	1.3	2	0.31	0	8%	0
VAN L. Karlsson	1.3	2	0.34	1	15%	1
VAN N. Hoglander	1.3	1	0.38	0	17%	0
VAN L. Ohgren	1.3	1	0.20	1	10%	0
VAN D. O'Connor	1.3	1	0.32	0	15%	0
VAN T. Myers	1.2	1	0.28	0	4%	0
SEA C. Fleury	1.1	2	0.13	0	3%	0
VAN M. Sasson	1.1	1	0.27	0	15%	0
SEA B. Catton	1.0	2	0.29	0	10%	0
VAN Z. Buium	1.0	1	0.45	0	8%	0
VAN A. Räty	1.0	0	0.33	0	14%	0
SEA R. Winterton	1.0	3	0.15	1	7%	1
SEA J. Oleksiak	1.0	1	0.21	0	5%	0
VAN M. Pettersson	1.0	1	0.31	0	4%	0
SEA B. Meyers	1.0	3	0.20	0	10%	0
SEA R. Lindgren	0.9	1	0.25	0	5%	0
SEA R. Evans	0.8	0	0.30	0	7%	0
VAN T. Willander	0.8	1	0.28	1	3%	0
SEA J. Melanson	0.8	1	0.13	1	8%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	0.7	0	0.17	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.