VAN beat SJS 2-1 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.34 expected goals to 2.61. SJS outshot VAN 34 to 24. T. Toffoli had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.7. T. Demko stopped 33 of 34.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| SJS | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
- 3rd 8:04VAND. JoshuaPP0.15 xG
- 3rd 18:32SJST. Toffoli0.15 xG
- OT 0:33VAND. O'Connor0.35 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
VAN 2.34 xGSJS 2.61 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
VAN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Suter | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:48 | 1:39 |
| D. Joshua | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:56 | 1:39 |
| D. O'Connor | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 14:07 | 0:00 |
| B. Boeser | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 20:59 | 5:43 |
| F. Chytil | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 19:44 | 5:37 |
| E. Pettersson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:33 | 6:21 |
| J. DeBrusk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:34 | 6:21 |
| K. Sherwood | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:36 | 1:39 |
| T. Blueger | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:12 | 0:00 |
| C. Garland | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:22 | 2:59 |
| N. Hoglander | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:53 | 0:00 |
| N. Aman | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:30 | 0:00 |
| T. Myers | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:19 | 1:23 |
| F. Hronek | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 24:33 | 6:39 |
| M. Pettersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:35 | 0:00 |
| D. Forbort | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:40 | 0:00 |
| C. Soucy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:16 | 0:00 |
| E. Pettersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:02 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Demko | 34 | 33 | 1 | .971 | 60:33 | Win |
| K. Lankinen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
SJS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W. Eklund | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:15 | 3:08 |
| T. Toffoli | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:04 | 3:07 |
| M. Celebrini | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 20:13 | 3:10 |
| C. Graf | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:04 | 0:52 |
| W. Smith | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:14 | 3:08 |
| B. Goodrow | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:13 | 0:00 |
| F. Zetterlund | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 14:02 | 1:04 |
| L. Kunin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:52 | 0:50 |
| A. Poturalski | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13:02 | 0:53 |
| W. Duehr | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:16 | 0:00 |
| C. Grundstrom | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:48 | 0:00 |
| T. Dellandrea | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9:32 | 0:00 |
| J. Walman | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | +1 | 2 | 27:01 | 3:16 |
| M. Ferraro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 22:50 | 0:00 |
| H. Thrun | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:39 | 0:00 |
| T. Liljegren | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 17:51 | 0:44 |
| S. Mukhamadullin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:33 | 0:00 |
| J. Thompson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:57 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V. Vanecek | 24 | 22 | 2 | .917 | 59:46 | OT loss |
| A. Georgiev | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | VAN 3.2, SJS 2.5 | VAN 2, SJS 1 |
| Total goals | 5.6 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | VAN 27.6, SJS 25.1 | VAN 24, SJS 34 |
| Win chance | VAN 61% | VAN won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS M. Celebrini | 3.2 | 2 | 0.87 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| SJS T. Toffoli | 2.7 | 7 | 0.71 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| VAN F. Chytil | 2.7 | 1 | 0.68 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| VAN B. Boeser | 2.4 | 2 | 0.90 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| VAN C. Garland | 2.4 | 0 | 0.72 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| VAN J. DeBrusk | 2.3 | 0 | 0.73 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| SJS J. Walman | 2.2 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| VAN E. Pettersson | 2.2 | 0 | 0.94 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| SJS F. Zetterlund | 1.9 | 4 | 0.47 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| VAN K. Sherwood | 1.8 | 0 | 0.47 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| SJS W. Eklund | 1.8 | 3 | 0.70 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| VAN D. O'Connor | 1.8 | 6 | 0.40 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| VAN P. Suter | 1.7 | 1 | 0.50 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| VAN F. Hronek | 1.7 | 2 | 0.62 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| SJS C. Grundstrom | 1.4 | 3 | 0.23 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| SJS W. Smith | 1.4 | 4 | 0.52 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| SJS L. Kunin | 1.4 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| VAN T. Myers | 1.3 | 3 | 0.40 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| VAN M. Pettersson | 1.3 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| SJS J. Thompson | 1.2 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| VAN N. Hoglander | 1.2 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| SJS M. Ferraro | 1.1 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| SJS A. Poturalski | 1.1 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| SJS T. Liljegren | 1.1 | 3 | 0.27 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| VAN T. Blueger | 1.1 | 4 | 0.34 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| SJS C. Graf | 1.0 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| VAN C. Soucy | 1.0 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| VAN D. Joshua | 1.0 | 2 | 0.44 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| SJS S. Mukhamadullin | 1.0 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| SJS B. Goodrow | 1.0 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| SJS W. Duehr | 0.8 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VAN D. Forbort | 0.8 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SJS T. Dellandrea | 0.8 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| SJS H. Thrun | 0.8 | 2 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| VAN N. Aman | 0.7 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 12 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.